I can barely get a coffee these days without hearing a rumor about which financial companies are on Bill Gross’s “Do Not Trade With” list, so kind of easy to forget we are actually right in the middle of earnings season.

But hey, Apple tonight. I have not gone anywhere near a mall in a while, but I’m hearing the line’s outside the Apple store for the new IPhone is insane. Apparently it was in the stock already though, as it’s gone nowhere lately.

Really not a crazy options bidup ahead of The Number. Aug. near money’s are trading at about a 55 volatility. 40 volatility looks like a reasonable target after the report. Especially since that’s where it’s gone every other time in the past year.

If it happens again, the “over/under” move tonight is about 10% in either direction.

What this means is that a delta neutral options play will likely break even if AAPL moves 10%. Below that, the sellers presumably win. It speaks nothing of direction. And just to remind this is a ballpark estimate, not gospel.