Hocus Pocusby alphadawgg on May 28th, 2008 at 6:56 pm |
I found the following interesting since it has been developed by Welles Wilder, the same Welles Wilder that gave us “RSI” and “Directional Movement” for technical analysis…..
It is based on the cycles of the moon and the interaction with the earth and sun.
Anyone familiar with this stuff?
(I’m not putting a plug in for this…just curious if someone else has come across this or even uses it)
Adawg, I have done some preliminary work on this topic.
If you are curious, start with this:
http://www.paradigmbook.com/pk_article.html
Somewhere on this guy’s site, you can access his previous market predictions, based on lunar stuff, laid over actual charts. It is pretty amazing.
Then, google search “stocks lunar cycle”
There is legitimate research on the topic.
May 28th, 2008 at 8:44 pmWoody,
Thanks for the link. I find it very interesting since there is a definite order to the universe. (Intelligent design?)
Why not a design to the the markets?
The markets are affected by people, people are affected by their environment, the environment is affected by the earth’s history and pattern of development, the earth is affected by the sun and moon.
May 28th, 2008 at 9:44 pmAdawg- I agree with your last paragraph.
May 28th, 2008 at 9:51 pmI have respect for the person who developed the RSI indicator. However, it’s difficult for me to believe that there is a “perfect order” underlying all market data.
Do people really believe in the relationship of lunar cycles to the stock market? Perhaps there’s more people out there who believe this type of theory than I thought. If so, I’ll gladly sell my first edition copy of Tides in the Affairs of Men: An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change, by Edgar Lawrence Smith, published 1939. He presents the theory of the recurring Decennial Pattern in the stock market. Even more interesting is his presentation of the mathematical relationship between the stock market price movements and the weather (I kid you not) including rainfall, barometric pressure, and solar sun spots. I just know there will be someone who will pay me $250 for this book on Amazon.
May 28th, 2008 at 9:54 pmBoca, I think a perfect order is stretching it.
As for people really believing in the relationship of lunar cycles to the stock market, yes, some people do. Not saying I do, but you should read some of the stuff thats out there.
Would I trade on it? Probably not. Although, in one of the market wizards books, I think there is reference made to profiting from astrology as a system for trading stocks. I guess my point is, does it really matter if it gives you an edge?
I’ll gladly offer you 20 bucks for that book. Let the bidding start there.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:06 pmWorth reading…lunar effects on the market.
http://lunar.behaviouralfinance.net/DiJa03.pdf
This stuff is fascinating and controversial. Who knew?
May 28th, 2008 at 10:10 pmboca–
$25 bid.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:20 pmhaha, no way dude, it’s going fixed price on Amazon for at least $250, only because it’s a first edition and collectible. If you want a reading copy only, supposedly there’s some paperbacks available on Amazon around $40 or $50.
I’m much more interested in selling the books to people who believe in the theories, than in using the concepts to trade myself.
I put more credence in the lunar cycles affecting traders’ behavior than in anything else. I have to say it, what does this mean about women’s trading behavior specifically seeing as they have their own lunar monthly cycles? I’m not sure I want to know!
May 28th, 2008 at 10:20 pmBoca, I’ve always heard that women are supposed to make better traders than men. Maybe that is why?
May 28th, 2008 at 10:25 pmI’ve heard that, but I suspect it’s just self-selection, because only the most motivated (and possibly skilled) female traders would voluntarily immerse themselves in the sea of testosterone, profanity and male displays of dominance that constitute the trading environment (or so I’ve observed male trading behavior to be taking this group as a sample).
Personally I think I have much to learn from the other traders here to develop my skills, although I have a natural instinct or built in inclination to trading, and find it enjoyable. There are many excellent traders here.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:32 pmYeah, the suvivorship bias is probably in full effect.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:47 pmWomen have a better intuition about things. I don’t doubt that they would make better discretionary traders than men.
In my experience, I’ve observed that men seem to gravitate towards more of a mechanical trading approach, maybe because it seems more “logical” —-and, you can do it from a couch with a remote in one hand and a beer in the other
May 28th, 2008 at 10:57 pmShed, I have a better idea …I’d be willing to lend you the book as long as you promise to return it after reading … the IBC lending library is born. Let me know, it really is fascinating.
May 28th, 2008 at 11:20 pmhttp://www.xyber9.com/Xyber9/Technology.aspx
May 28th, 2008 at 11:25 pmHey there Chivas, haven’t seen you in a while, how are you?
May 28th, 2008 at 11:31 pmdoing fine. thanks for asking. enjoying all your posts. hope you’re doing well also.
May 28th, 2008 at 11:33 pm“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.”
— J.P. Morgan
“It’s common knowledge that a large percentage of Wall Street brokers use astrology.”
—Donald Regan
“The celestial bodies are the cause of all that takes place in the sublunar world.”
—Thomas Aquinas
“The controls of life are structured as forms and nuclear arrangements, in a relation with the motions of the universe.”
—Louis Pasteur
[Note: Donald Regan, former Treasury Secretary and former Merill Lynch chairman, is somewhat of a midget among those giants]
May 28th, 2008 at 11:36 pmChivas, that is the site I was talking about with all of that guys predictions laid over the charts. Good stuff. Thanks for posting it.
Boca, I don’t know. That is very generous of you. I think I would feel uncomfortable with 250 of your bucks sitting over here at my pad. The lending library is a fantastic idea though.
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