Formula for a Rallyby alphadawgg on July 16th, 2008 at 1:51 pm |
Lower oil + bank earnings surprises + oversold market = Rally
The action today is signaling a good chance for a run back up to 12,000. With commodity prices, especially oil, backing off, and the potential for regional banks to report better than expected earnings, the stage is set for a decent rally from here.
Market sentiment, as measured by the NYSE Bullish Percent Index is clearly in oversold territory, currently sitting at 26%. A move back up to 30% would be a sign that the bulls are starting to gain control again.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers will end up at the end of today
Â
I give it until the end of the week.
Dow is not even out of its downward trendline.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:09 pmlooking at the USO…see the last two days of selling…I remember being long the night of 02/26/2007.
That night China had its first panic selloff and for this dawg it also marked the beginning of the topping formation aka distribution in the SPX and the Dowager…we are nearly 1.5 years down the road from that day. So for me the bear market started sooner than the false high we made in Oct 2007…..
ocean liners like monthly charts take some time to turn around so I will be interested in the end of month and the next couple of weeks chart candles and volumes. To sniff out the path of least resistance…
July 16th, 2008 at 2:39 pmAs long as USO and SKF repeatedly get the ball peen hammer to the testicles, the market will continue higher. This is a given.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:55 pmSKF has doubled in 6 weeks from 100 to 200….trends always come with pull backs no?
USO alas has had its run unchecked for some time. USO could pullback to 80 and the longer term uptrend is still in tact. have to see how 98.62 plays out first…low of the week of June 6th.
Da black boxes have been flipped over in the short run
July 16th, 2008 at 3:24 pmJune 26 th….thats day where we started the final descent we have just gone through. IMO watch how the market moves back up to that level…look at IWM or SPY to see what I am thinking
July 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm