Da Beeg Pickchure [sic]
Let me break it down for you, comrades:
As I pointed out in a previous post, the dollar is rallying and now appears to be on the way to challenging the long term downtrend in the near term. However, it still has a way to go before I would ring the “all clear” bullish reversal in the dollar.
Gold has failed to rally, again—a good sign for the dollar. Therefore, it behooves people to be selling out of gold and beginning to go long the dollar, if they haven’t already. At the very least, exposure to gold should be reduced. A breakdown of gold below $800 continues to build a stronger case for a long term dollar rally.
Also, with the dollar strengthening, the focus now is away from international stocks and back to the good ol’ USA. The foreign developed market countries are breaking down and emerging markets are already broken.
And, while we’re at it, the housing market has been putting in a bottom, as evidenced by the rally in the homebuilders.
Stop with all the denial.
The chart of [[XHB]] shows that the bearish resistance line has now been violated, meaning that investors are starting to believe that the sector appears poised for a recovery. I say appears, because nothing is stamped in cement. Remember, the market is a forecasting mechanism, representing the outlook of the investment collective.
In summary, this has been, and continues to be, a difficult environment in which to invest. It is dark, and wrought with many dangers and pain. As they say, it’s always darkest before the dawn—that hour between 3 am and 4 am.
But, it’s also an environment that is laboring to give birth to a new bull market. Ask any woman who has gone through childbirth what it was like just before her beautiful baby was born.
Just saying…..
As always, a very nice round up.
However, I have to say: you are out of your mind.
With regards to housing:
Seasonality has allowed these stocks to rally. Let’s revisit them in November, when people are not dumping their homes. If the stocks are up then, I am with you.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:01 amyou know whats cool? By the time I get all my shit together in a year or two, it will be the most opportune time to buy real estate in nearly a decade.
I’m so excited. Me and my stepdad will split a 4 apartment complex on the bay for like 1.8 million, and drink champagne with hookers…which I’m pretty sure my mom will be down with.
We’ve already scouted…
…all iBCers Dpeezy and boca are invited to my party. The rest of you guys are invited too, just not with your own VIP wristbands.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:08 ambut, non-VIP wristbands still come with a 5 drink ticket, so it’s not a totally bad situation.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:11 amIn two years you will be fighting off Russian conscripts in Poland, under a McCain draft.
Get ready. It’s a comin’
August 27th, 2008 at 2:24 amYou’re baked, Salmon.
Housing to zero, the dollar to fitty cent, where it will be sued for copywrite infringement by a certain gold toothed rapper from Queens.
Gold and SKF, uber alles.
_____
August 27th, 2008 at 2:24 amROFL!
Maybe they can make Danny a special “Skateboard commando” with specially shielded ceramic Vans, and light carbine automatic weaponry?
______
August 27th, 2008 at 2:25 amThose apartments are fucking sweet, from what I’ve seen. Mind you, it was a cursory look in a haze of alcohol, but still big ballin’.
For the next war, we’ll have so many old people in this country, that they will be the ones drafted. It’ll be like Old Man’s War.
So the rest of us will be free to drink & celebrate.
August 27th, 2008 at 3:28 amDanny
why dont you sell your BMW (BigManWannabe)and “get your shit together” a lot faster. Your the typical SoCal jerk-off. Wants to be seen in a nice car, but lives in a two bedroom apartment with 3 guys.
Odd, no?
August 27th, 2008 at 5:54 am[...] take this break from linear regression analysis to comment on a recent post by [...]
August 27th, 2008 at 6:56 amno, no, no
Housing will bottom when inventory begins to clear up. Inventory will clear up when people can buy houses en masse. Right now we’re entering a new wave of ARM adjustments, and even prime borrowing fucktards who got “all smart” 3-5 years ago are loosing [sic] their asses on “investment properties” all over the country.
I say sovereign wealth pops up with a lending facility, which will be sold to us through our current banking system. The standards will loosen, and defaulting debt will risk falling into the hands of foreigners. That alone will be an incentive to think twice before not paying your mortgage.
We are nowhere near a bottom soliel moon frye.
….
August 27th, 2008 at 10:39 amI agree with your entire scenario AD. By the time we realize it’s time to invest in housing the easy gains will be taken. Nibbling at LEN now and like PHM too. If the market discounts 6-12 months into the future then we s/b buying now or fairly soon.
Memo: Anyone buying the lizard drool AMLN ala ELN here?
August 27th, 2008 at 11:42 amfuuuuuuuuck you
August 27th, 2008 at 12:44 pmI’m starting to look at the homie stocks essentially like they’re in-the-money call options on real estate. The nice thing about that is that you don’t have to worry about the time decay working against you, either.
Find the ones with the strongest balance sheets, buy ‘em and sit on ‘em.
(Am I out of my mind?)
August 27th, 2008 at 1:15 pm“Ask any woman who has gone through childbirth what it was like just before her beautiful baby was born.
Just saying…..”
Funny you should ask. It’s like trying to force a recalcitrant watermelon out through one of your nostrils. A lot of swearing is involved.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:09 pm“Maybe they can make Danny a special “Skateboard commando” with specially shielded ceramic Vans, and light carbine automatic weaponry?”
I don’t know how I missed this comment, but it is genius.
Boca - lmao.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:38 pmBoca, if you had to do it over - would you opt for the slice and dice or the watermelon push?
August 27th, 2008 at 2:43 pmDSB, now that I know what it’s like, they both scare me! obviously I’m a wuss.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:55 pmDawg — lower high in the $DXY?
(hey I made a small poem!)
__
August 28th, 2008 at 3:49 pmJake,
What the gibberish are you talking about? Filter out the noise, bud.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=USD,PLTADANRBOPADF1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
August 28th, 2008 at 4:13 pm