Crash Trifecta
I’ve always believed that crashes are fairly predictible because human nature is fairly predictible.
This market is setting up for a crash on Monday. Trust me.
This will be the third market crash of my investment career. A trifecta.
I think this one is mirroring the Oct ‘87 crash. We shall see.
Regardless. I do agree with the Fly that tomorrow will be down, which sets up Monday, October 13th as “the day”. Besides how much more unlucky can you get than “13″?
So far the “crash” has been more of a slow motion train wreck. We need to have that one big final panic day. It should be over 1,500 points down on the Dow, or it’s not legit.
Trust me, so far it’s been mainly the hedge funds, pensions and institutions that have been the main participants in this egregiously big sell off.
The Fly may call the brokers idiots, but one thing they do is prevent their clients from getting out when the market is down. In spite of that, eventually, the public just can’t take it anymore, and they sell everything. They get out, then fire their broker.
I think we are nearing that point.
We all know that the average investor actually buys high and sells low because they never really understand the risks of the stock market. They let their emotions rule instead of logic. They’re always the last ones to get in, and the last ones to get out. Always. Call it destiny or whatever.
Now they are starting to get out, no thanks to their brokers.
I now expect the bank stocks to rally into the end of the year and into the New Year. But I’m waiting until next week to see how Monday turns out before taking Comrade Hank’s advice to buy them.
I’m spending the next few days pouring over stocks—blue chips, heavily beaten down names that are paying good secure dividends. General Electric Company [[GE]] is one that comes to mind immediately.
Maybe I’m wrong about all this. Then again, maybe I’m not.
*poring
Unless you actually will pour your liquid self all over the stocks. Which may be somewhat perverted.
Otherwise, excellent prose. Especially if Monday the 13th enters the lexicon as the next big bad voodoo day.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:41 pmYou’re right my friend, you’re right.
How bout them red sox?
October 9th, 2008 at 4:55 pmFor personal reasons, Oct. 13th is by a long shot, my least favorite day of the year. Might as well add to the dismality. Congrats on your trifecta survival.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:56 pmAmen. Go ‘Sox!
October 9th, 2008 at 5:12 pmaccording to finviz, GE reports earnings BMO tomorrow
October 9th, 2008 at 5:13 pmNovember 6th is my worst day.
That’s a month off.
Golds have been holding up, btw… hold them through your “crash” scenario?
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October 9th, 2008 at 5:18 pmWe can call it the Oct 13 Woodshedder Crash.
I better get flat before the weekend. I wonder how many are thinking the same thing?
October 9th, 2008 at 5:21 pmMaybe we can convince everybody that Monday will be the crash to end all crashes and instead we’ll get a 2000 point rally?
Spread the word.
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Isn’t the PPT coming out soon? Or has that been recessed & nationalized as well?
October 9th, 2008 at 5:24 pmJakeGint,
Agree with November 6th being a crappy day. Lost two family members (mom & grandfather) on that date in different years.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:28 pmhell yeah it is. iBC is the ultimate supercycle.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:28 pmGood to hear. So what you’re saying is that the release date will mark the turning point? Nice.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:39 pmMy cycle charts are pointing to a bottom in the financials about two weeks before the full moon on October 28—-then a robust rally into the end of the year. The financials are a proxy for the stock market at this point in time.
The charts don’t lie.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:50 pmJake–gold is the best currency to be in right now. I’m holding gold and some GLD. Not the miners, though.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:55 pmI predict there will be no market action on the 13th. Could Monday the 13th be a legal holiday and the markets will be closed? How about a horrible “Black Tuesday 2″
terry
October 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pmSorry Terry, Columbus Day is only ‘observed’. Banks will be closed, but the market will be open. Then again, banks, as we know them, may not even exist by then.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:25 pmYou know you’re from Massachusetts if:
You know what a pocketbook is
You call them what they really are “sneakers” (not “tennies”)
You think if someone is nice to you they either want something or they are from out of town
The public transportation system is known as the “T” and you’d rather drive in bumper to bumper traffic for 4 hours to get to Boston than be caught dead on the “Orange Line”
You could own a small town in Iowa for the cost of your house
There are 24 Dunkin Donuts shops within 15 minutes of your house and that is how you give directions
If you stay on the same road long enough it eventually has three different names
53 degrees is “on the warm side”
You’ve walked to Brigham’s for an ice cream cone “to go” in the snow
You cringe every time you hear some actor/actress imitate the “Boston Accent” on TV
You call chocolate sprinkles “jimmies”
A water fountain is called a bubbler. Say it “bubbla”.
You can go from one side of town to the other in less than fifteen minutes
You know how to pronounce towns like Worcester, Eastham, Chatham, Haverhill, Peabody, Scituate, and Leominster
You know what they sell at a “packie”
You keep an ice scraper in your car all year round
Paranoia sets in when you can’t see a Dunkin Donuts, ATM or CVS
You’ve pulled out of a side street and used your car to block oncoming traffic so you can make a left
You’ve bragged about saving money at The Christmas Tree Shop
You know what a “regular coffee” is!
You can navigate a rotary without a problem
You use the words “wicked” “pissa” and “good” in the same sentence
You know what a frappe is
Saint Patrick’s Day is your second favorite holiday
You drink tonic and would never consider using it on your hair
You never say “Cape Cod” you say “The Cape”
You went to Old Sturbridge Village and Plymouth Plantation at least once, in elementary school, but never to Bunka Hill
You know the Mass Pike and 495 create some sort of strange weather dividing line
Any others ALPHA
October 9th, 2008 at 6:28 pmI’m just a Townie from RI, but those are all spot on, Mike.
You made me remember those fun summer days, making a run to the packie on the way to the Cape, listening to some wicked good Aerosmith tunes.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:04 pmNovember 6th is my birthday bastards
i am starting to buy some cigs heavily…MO
October 10th, 2008 at 12:15 amPalin, if you’re two on this November 6th you could be my Dad, reincarnated.
Dad?
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AssMike and Alpha — I’m from Noo Yawk, but we call ‘em sneakers there too.
Out here in Flyover, it’s your freakin’ “gym shoes.”
WTF??
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October 10th, 2008 at 12:48 am