What’s Happening?by alphadawgg on October 10th, 2008 at 12:35 pm |
We have more strategies and tools available to us now. I think that the first move off the bottom will be big. I’m looking to go 2X ETFs with some of my money.
However, I think that if we do get a rally, that it will not be sustained for any more than 6 months. There is just too much damage that will result from all this. We are moving in the direction of a global recession now. There is no doubt in my mind.
You can’t have 60 of 60 stock markets down over 20% in one year, and ignore what that is telling us about the future of economies.
Fortunately, if a person is willing to trade, he/she can survive and even thrive.
Pity the poor (literally) Joe Blow investor and his full service broker who doesn’t understand this.
The big picture, however, is ominous.
I realize that using “the D word” scares a lot of people. But it’s not any different this time. Just the names and numbers have changed. The result is the same. We are seeing the final cycle of a massive unwinding of debt, which eventually ends in a depression—in this case, globally.
2012 will be the trough.
The last depression started to recover with WW II, and the market finally reached back to 1929 levels in 1954….25 years later.
Just know that there will be blood.
“There will be wars and rumors of wars”. Those aren’t my words.
People need to be prepared for what is coming. The stage is being set for a new form of world coordinated governance and regulation. It’s coming. People will welcome it because things will get so bad.
Simplify your life. Be efficient, be elegantly frugal, and simplify.
2012.
More on this another time………
Wait, so you’re saying we’re going to crash in 2 days time, but rally off big from there?
October 10th, 2008 at 12:51 pmWell said alpha.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:51 pmhttp://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/604-POTENTIAL-ECONOMIC-SEIZURE-DEAD-AHEAD.html
Denningers end of the world as we know it scenario … he may most unfortunately be right
October 10th, 2008 at 12:59 pmfull moon fever…. IPI is holding in nicely look at POT as well…. the fertiilizers are trying to bottom here…
October 10th, 2008 at 1:00 pmYou’re such an optimist.
I’d be willing to bet the U.S. government ultimately defaults on its debts before 2012, rendering the green paper in your wallet with pictures of dead white guys on it worthless.
It’s very hard for me to see a way out the way the system is currently configured.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:08 pmCarey, there’s a reflex rally that happens off the bottom. That’s what I’m saying. I don’t see any kind of sustained rally after that, unless there’s a change in the fundamentals of the economy, as would be evidenced by the leading economic indicators.
The longer term is uncertain at best and ominous at worst.
“Global Depression” thinks I’m optimistic. Funny.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:27 pmJuice,
Without a doubt it’s bad, but Denninger is a little over the top.
For example, he makes the statement that the banks have been lying about the write downs.
How could the banks be lying? Are they paying off the auditors? Come on.
As a former CPA, I can tell you that accountants are the most ethical people in business. They would rather lose an engagement than take a bribe to lie, especially when you consider to magnitude of what’s at stake.
Yeah, things are bad and will probably get much worse with the system. But it’s a result of the mismanagement of assets by the private and public sectors and our appetite for risk as a whole.
This whole mess has been years in the making. We can’t just blame one group of people.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:48 pmFolks, this is it. We are seeing everything taken down today. All assets are on sale and marked down. Stocks, bonds, gold, metals, grains. It doesn’t matter now. This is what happens leading up to a crash. Whether it’s today or early next week, it’s definitely getting close.
Anybody got a panic meter reading on this?
October 10th, 2008 at 2:08 pmHats off to you AD, one of the few here to keep blogging and letting us know what you’re doing and what you think. The silence is deafening other than you and Fly.
You’re right about accountants too …. never saw a bribe that was commensurate for the loss of integrity or the risk/reward outcome.
Re ETF’s: You thinking UYG or XLF (yield), UYM or XLB (yield), KOL, DIG, SSO, QLD, DDM or others?
You prefer ETF’s over Fly’s C, NOV, FCX strategy … spread the risk rather than top tier individual companies?
October 10th, 2008 at 2:11 pmHow could the banks be lying? Are they paying off the auditors? Come on.
Good question, Alpha - what about BSC, LEH, AIG? Where were their auditors?
October 10th, 2008 at 2:13 pm8-
The ETFs are good for immediate exposure to the broad market or a sector. It’s a quick, easy solution to getting back in.
Flux– point taken.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:17 pmY’all should grab yourself 5 flags. The world becomes a lot less scary when you have your 5 flags.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:24 pmAuditors don’t lie. You need to grow up.
“Employee8 Says:
Hats off to you AD, one of the few here to keep blogging and letting us know what you’re doing and what you think. The silence is deafening other than you and Fly. ”
Fuck you. What are you implying? I got nothing to say to anyone I haven’t said. Need your hand held? That pissed me off. Seriously, wtf are you implying?
October 10th, 2008 at 2:27 pmAlpha,
I’m with Employee8 on the hat tip. You and Fly taking the time to keep on blogging is appreciated. The posts add a little bit of normal to the big uncertainty.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:34 pmDanny has done a great job of blogging his thoughts and plans. You should check out his tab sometime E-8.
Wood has also made his intentions clear.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:35 pmThis period which the market is in will come to be known as “Black October”, if we crash through support and go below 7300.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:41 pmI’m implying that unless you’re sitting on your hands then you must be buying …. isn’t this what you were waiting for to deploy all your cash …. Can we expect you to post after a rally that you bot X, Y & Z and declare victory!
I read Danny all the time … find his posts (not his charts) elusive. AD makes it clear that he is waiting and intending to use ETF’s.
That’s all … I need no hand holding, like AD, this is my third crash and I know enough that buying gold doesn’t work in this scenario.
I just think that other than Fly & AD the other tabbed bloggers here have abandoned their readers, either by necessity, trading their own accts or fear of giving poor advice … just my observation.
No ill will intended Danny … So Fuck you too!
October 10th, 2008 at 2:58 pm“I’m implying that unless you’re sitting on your hands then you must be buying …. isn’t this what you were waiting for to deploy all your cash …. Can we expect you to post after a rally that you bot X, Y & Z and declare victory!”
That is a stupid assumption, all or nothing. For suggesting I would do an after the fact post and lie, I don’t even know what to tell you, but it probably isn’t polite.
If I buy something, I’ll tell you bastards.
“I read Danny all the time … find his posts (not his charts) elusive.”
I post at least once a day…I’m glad you like my charts though, I work hard on those.
“I just think that other than Fly & AD the other tabbed bloggers here have abandoned their readers, either by necessity, trading their own accts or fear of giving poor advice … just my observation.”
Well, no offense, but it is a poor observation. I don’t give advice to anyone here, I tell people what I think. Believe it or not, there’s a big difference. I can only speak for myself on that.
I have no obligation to you, you don’t pay me, and personally I could care less what happens to you. This is not an altruistic, lets all hug site, this is a “fuck you, I bank coin site.”
By necessity? what?
trading their own accts? I’ve done that for…years.
Fear of poor advice? Yes, I’m Giuseppe Franco, you think I would put my rep on the line for a haircare product that doesn’t regrow hair? Gimme a break. My rep speaks for itself currently. I’m 23, I have a ton of money, and guess what, I didn’t lose it this year, or at all in the last 3 months.
Now, when the subs start, that all changes. Those people will get hugs, including you E8. There will be more personal help from everyone.
I think you should check those blanket statements at the door, especially since they instigate and have no value.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:17 pmBought FXI 26.16 (15:12 ET)–for a trade, stop at 24.
My almond chicken is tasty, btw.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:23 pmYou missed my point …. I commended AD for continuing to blog.
I know most are working or schooling and certainly it would be in ones own best interest to mind their own store during this market action … no sweat, Danny …. I still love you (in a manly way of course) …. and agreed, that’s what this site is for, to help each other …. invaluable as with the CHK info from Gap/Yap earlier today … Priceless yet free!
October 10th, 2008 at 3:27 pmOdd, no?
Way to go 8 and Danny. Group hug.
There goes FXI. Ding, ding.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:31 pmNice call AD … you did it again!
October 10th, 2008 at 3:33 pmYes, hugs and beers for all. Wow, we went positive at the same time the market did.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:33 pmNew short selling rules coming out.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pmgoddamn that was a good buy
October 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pmyou know what the best news is? Cramer still a contrary indicator? I was worried when his sell everything call wasn’t the day of the bottom.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:35 pmSold FXI @ 27.76 (15:39 ET)
October 10th, 2008 at 3:46 pmDone with my almond chicken lunch special.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:49 pmShit. My trader couldn’t get my SDS order in soon enough. He mumbled some shit about computer speeds. Dammit. Shit, shit, shit.
I have a bad feeling about Black Mondays.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:08 pmWhat a day a week a month….. abd its only the 10 th oy vey.
Large cap tech, Golds, and certain material stocks look like they will lead off the bottom.
A awg…the Royal bank of CehNehDeh… closed green …strange trading indeed.
Busy spending the day trying to figure out our counterparty risk with MS and CSFB…..Risk mgmt wants to know how much we have on the line with ‘em….I don’t wanna see another data dump ever. Can’t wait until we return to normal with our other Direct particiapnts.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:12 pmAnyone left standing after this historic week, deserves a PPT plastic decoder ring and a bottle of scotch. And I finally had a day where I didn’t buy UYG at the top tick!
October 10th, 2008 at 4:16 pmEveryone have a good weekend. God knows we need it.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:27 pmMonday canada is closed…looking for some forced selling Monday watch for lows near the open and then again around 11:30 once the margin clerks have taken care of the retailers and the risk mgmt groups have cleared out the hedgies i think we are setting up for a nice rally back to SPX 1000…
look at the trading __ 5 min chart __ after 2 pm on the SPY or the QQQQ ….thats a powerful thrust and the volume suggest there were some smart buyers in there…. smile….
October 10th, 2008 at 6:03 pmAlpha,
Great work this week. Just want to say thanks. Hopefully the FLY is taking care of you “grease your palm” style.
BoSox at 8:15pm…..Yeah!!!!
Ass Napkin Mike
October 10th, 2008 at 6:15 pmthe crash is over A dawg the last five days represent the crash. You will be glad you didn’t get a fill on SDS come Monday.
the G7 meeting is over and I fully expect that a coordinated effort to get the financial system operating efficiently again will be full steam ahead.
you area a little too far off base with all your talk about depression etc. IMO. I am not sure what you are reading or where your ideas are anchored but I can tell you that yes we are in a secular bear market much like the 1970’s and less like the 1930’s…. you notice the 40 years or two full geneartions between those events and now two geneartions later here we are again… did we come out of the 1970’s OK? I remember the TV spots in the 1970’s telling us we would freeze in the dark and the thermostat should be set to 68…Carter told us to wear a sweater. The fears poured upon us were unfounded.
the next fear the folks are going to face is when the market moves ahead and they don’t won’t or can’t get in…and when the fear of missing out takes hold that will be the time to be generous and sell them your shares.
north of the border we just added jobs in September and we have lots of activity going …. a slowdown is in the cards but depression isn’t on the table. And it isn’t on the table in your land either. I expect great things from the Americans …. but please no more financial engineering ok. securitization was a gift we don’t want.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:57 pmanjing–
I do think the banks rally from a point in mid October.
You may be right in saying the Crash is over. If Monday is up strong in the first hour, I’d agree with you.
A rally in the banks will light the Dow on fire. As I said before, my cycle charts are indicating rally in banks and the Dow from mid Oct thru year end. It will catch a lot of people off guard.
The question is, how sustainable will it be going into Q1:2009? We’re in a global recession now.
And, yeah, I’m probably lucky that 4,400 shares of SDS didn’t get filled.
Back to the ‘Sox game!
October 10th, 2008 at 9:20 pmDice-K is on fire.
Tropicana is a piece of shit.
Jason Bay +1
“Hey Bay Bay….Hey Bay Bay”
October 10th, 2008 at 10:04 pmNo-no thru six.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:37 pmWoo hoo! Youk, Youk, Youk, Youk.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:17 pmAlpha-
What the F*#$ is up with J. Beckett?
The Rays are playing home-run right now.
C’mon
October 11th, 2008 at 9:50 pmThe cow bells at The Trop is a nice touch. Just like at a Mississippi State football game.
October 11th, 2008 at 9:55 pm