Just something to consider.

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Something else to consider:

Just a touch.

Monday will be interesting.

I slept in for today’s entire session, so I was unable to add to my shorts at the close, much to my chagrin.  I will rue missing the opportunity. I did add some AH.

We’re more overbought than the swaps on Devildog’s Doomsday Fund.

In any event, I remain flexible, and open to possibilities that may rattle you to your very core.

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Ricky: Here’s scenario B for you Bob, see how you feel about this one. Now I don’t know if you’ve noticed this or not, but I think I’m starting to get under Ruiz’s skin as well, OK?

It all started with the whole Red Dragon thing, or the Welsh guy, whatever, they can play it down all they want but you know 200 grand’s a lot of fucking money! It’s a fucking lot of money!

OK?

200 grand is definitely a lot of fucking money!

And now I’ve got Ruiz calling me fucking ‘fruit-pie the fucking magician’!  Tellin’ me that I can’t fucking call my main man Max, who fucking sent me out on the fucking operation?

And what about the Welsh guy? He’s fucking scat all over, they fucking disappear and talk!

And you haven’t noticed this either but when he’s not fucking looking at me or you’re fucking doing whatever, I’ve got fucking Jimmy in the mirror with his shit too.

It’s fucking coming at me from here, I don’t know where it is!  It might be coming this way, it might be coming that way, but the fucking shit’s coming and I’m not gonna be late for the fucking dance man, I’m not gonna be fucking late for the dance on this one.
Bobby: You’re not getting a gun.

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Have a great New Year, IBC!

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PS:

Intraday LoBV: Extended

Working Hard.

In the mean time, enjoy today’s Intraday LoBV.  I’m pretty confident you can read this chart if you think “oscillator” and look close.

Top pane is the LoBV, middle the SPX, bottom pane is the SLoBV.  Note the slope of the lines, their relation to OB/OS areas, and their relation to the centerline.

What I’ve been doing is making a full iBC Machine sister-site, with tutorials, how-tos, live charts, daily updates, LoBVs, all kinds of shit that is awesome.  There may be cost or tech constraints that I have yet to uncover, but so far, I’m pretty excited for all of you on your behalf, since I think this will be inexpensive for me to set up.  Then, Vincenzo will turn it into a part of iBankCoin.com and you guys can attempt to replicate to prosperity that is my life.

ETA: Jan/Feb, after PPT.

I haven’t seen any of the other iBC predictions, so if there is overlap, then maybe the prediction is that much more likely.  Not unlike the ancient mystics of yore, I huffed some gas and went about prophesying.

1.) Stocks will fall +20% for the first half of the year of our Lord 2009, and will rally +30% in the second half as a “1/2 half 2010″ recovery starts making the airwaves.

2.) Dollar will move by greater than 5% in a day.

3.)  Gold, silver, PMs will fall by 5-15%, but then ramp at year end, ultimately gold >$1000

3.) Banks will write down earnings a lot more, and their earnings will fall another 20-60%

4.) Chrysler will fuck up hard — GM they’ll bail out, much to all our chagrin.

5.) The S&P will earn < $50

6.) Dennis Kneale will remain an annoying gay

7.) Buffet’s rep gets tarnished

8.) Bill Miller is sent to the sun in a rocketship

9.) Fly will win, even if he appears to be losing badly

10.)  Oil will bottom, remain significantly below old highs, and not recover “May 08″ style momentum for all of 2009.

11.) Tech cos will suck horse

12.) Obama’s jobs won’t materialize, or matter much for the economy in terms of fixing the problem.

13.) Municipalities in the worst struck areas will go bk.

14.) Still in Iraq

15.) China’s economy is the first to ramp again.

16.)  iBC will continue to shit on all other sites, will ramp revenue hard in ‘09, with little COGS, thus banking more coin for The Fly, and to a much lesser but still awesome extent, myself.

For the better part of a decade, Apple has been both a good investment and one hell of an innovative company.  Apple has come out with gadget after gadget, each cooler and more coveted than the last.  It has excellent marketing, and due to its closed-source nature, it has extremely tight control of both its products and profit margins.

They have 25 goddamn billion in cashish with no debt.

From my vantage, the secular shift of regular home computer users preferring a Mac to a PC reached critical mass sometime in 2007, as that was the point that many of my friends and family purchased their first Mac.

They still love them, but will they buy them again on their next upgrade cycle?  I think so.  However, much of that depends on the extent of Apple’s ability to continue to market and make fashionable products.

The price is worrisome.  How will investors feel about fresh, two-year lows under $85 area?  I imagine they’ll be a touch horsed-off.

I suspect AAPL will retrace the recent drop up somewhere round the yellow horizontal line ~96.  A rally up to the 95-102 area would imply an S&P move somewhere in the 885-950 region. It also could just fall through the floor, which implies a break of S&P 850.  Since AAPL essentially is the QQQQs, and the Qs along with the Fins lead the market, AAPL itself is a good proxy.

The pattern could change, but consolidating around a big support either means it bounces or it fails, and I suspect it ultimately fails. It’s fits the 1,2,3,4 pattern for failing, comes during a seasonally weak time tech, and since things aren’t getting better on the retail earnings front.  AAPL may miss by a penny, and the reaction in the stock could be quite negative.

Apple at 50 would be pretty damn ridiculously cheap using current estimates, but that’s the point.  If retail numbers are worse, or if something Apple specific is bad, that new negative catalyst of lower earnings, coupled with a major support level is something to consider.    AAPL ests are at ~$6 among 20 analysts.  What if AAPL delivers $4?  While that possibility may be priced in, that reality certainly isn’t.

1, 2, 3, …

I found this on my desk, mysteriously, after I returned from running some errands.  I cannot attest to its veracity, but I assume it to be authentic in its origin (the future).

We’ve gone down 5 days in a row — odds are high for a bounce.  Ok, fine, but to where?  That is an important question.

I say who cares.  Today is failure #2,873,656.  We never eclipsed 922.  We breached 900 for a solid DAY.  I expect any squeeze takes us up to that area (920-950), max, because it would sucker in largest number of derelict assholes.  It sounds crude, but sucking in derelict assholes is actually the market’s raison d’être.

Today looks bust, could squeeze, could settle down, and tomorrow and Friday don’t really count.  Bulls walking the tightrope are certainly swaying in the wind.

Even more bad news is that were in the twilight of our August bounce.

You want to do something?  Do nothing –> then get short on bounces.  It makes sense to trade long as I expect a bounce, another shot at the mid 880s at least, but as I’ve opined all month, that’s not the best risk:reward.  Wait for a bounce and short it.

Me, I’m already short from higher up, and I’ll keep it that way.

I’ve been making the allusion that the SP lately has been looking awful Augusty.  The market “bottomed” July 15th, and after advancing for 1 month, it lingered for 2 weeks before making new lows.  The current market has gone up for about 1 month since the Nov. 24th lows, and now it is lingering.  Let’s give it two weeks to break the lows?

Maybe.

I think that can happen, but am cautious because it sounds “so easy.”  Then again, the easiest trades are often the hardest to make.  I do believe you should be shorting all rips.  I bought a number of Feb puts on Friday in the SPY.  I feel strongly in the gravy of my bones that I will be able to sell the 80s at a nice profit between now and then.

In any event, please, as if your mother was on fire, short the living barnacles out of the market at 923, and 946-52, should we get the X-Mas fluff bounce.  Those were my upside sell targets back when they seemed more palpable. Now they appear remote, but just know, I will be selling them.

Levels of Interest in the SP:

803, 815, 832, 842, 852, 863, 871 (close) 874, 885, 902, 912, 922, 943

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[click on all charts to enlarge]

Volume-Weighted Average Price Lines

SPY - since November’s “bottom”

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Intraday LoBV™:

15 minute chart

Definition: This custom indicator measures the number of stocks and the distance they are from their respective moving averages.  It is a reversion to the mean indicator in that if a large number of stocks are a large distance from their respective moving averages (in any direction), it often portends and predicts a reversal.

My Interpretation: The LoBV (pane #2) was oversold, and we bounced.   The SLoBV (pane #3) made new lows.  You can see this viz the blue dots where this indicator “found support.”  The Blue Line in the SLoBV still has a negative slope, so the dominant intraday trend is lower.  That said, the LoBV is low enough that it could muster more upside tomorrow, before succumbing to the deteriorating Blue Line.

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Daily LoBV™:

Definition: The same thing as the Intraday LoBV™, except it measures the number of stocks and the distance they are from their moving averages on a daily basis, rather than an intraday basis.

My Interpretation:Never got the breadth expansion in the SLoBV (pane #3) and now the more sensitive LoBV appears to be rolling over.

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Check this piece of work out…it reeks of August.

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iBC Daily Buy / Sell Strength™:

Definition: Counts the number of stocks feeling “joy” or “pain” (as I’ve quantified it) to sum up the zeitgeist of the day.  This is akin to blood-pressure, or pulse, in that a person can look one way on the outside, but have an entirely better (or worse) situation going on internally.

My Interpretation: Very low sell pressure, so we could just as likely give the mid-880s a shot as the mid 850s.

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iBC Daily Buy / Sell Line™:

Definition: Is an oscillator of the Buy / Sell strength to see which theme is dominating the market on a weekly basis.

My Interpretation: Hit my red sell line and is moving back with masterful percision.  The grey bars are still above 0 though.

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I am in the process of updating THE DICTIONARY for 2008.

New additions will be an improvement in the formatting, and of course the new words.

Nearly all entries will be reformatted or edited.  New word entries will be denoted in orange.

This is the time to suggest or submit words to the dictionary.

Words should be something used on the site or excessively in the media.