Do Not Be Fooledby Danny on July 15th, 2008 at 3:52:33 pm |
Today’s rally is not being reflected with much strength in the iBC Machine.
The Machine for the last few days has begun to show depressed readings that have historically led to a bounce. I still expect this, though it is impossible to gauge the strength and length of the bounce. Due to the environment, I am skeptical a bounce would last more than a week or two.
If today is the start if said bounce it sure is being led by weak readings. The most basic indicator, the number of stocks up big on heavy volume is low, especially when compared to some of the sell readings we’ve had lately. Historically, and in line with personal expectations, I’d expect to see noticeable buy interest in a market poised to go higher.
The two sectors bouncing hardest today are Banking stocks ([[stt]], [[cnb]], [[tsfg]], [[fbc]], [[fed]], [[fhn]], [[banr]], [[wm]], [[pcbc]]) on a relief rally and Healthcare (Alpha’s List) as money looks for a safe haven.
All told, I am amazed by today’s rebound, but remain skeptical. Which of the myriad, unprecedented, huge problems did we fix today?
Well, I finally did the dishes. That was a subprime crisis affecting the South kitchen basin region of my palatial Pacific Beach estate. But alas, it didn’t deleverage the banks.
Today did the following things at the following prices, with notes:
Shorted:
[[ANF]] @ 55.25 (note: got short yesterday at 54.25)
[[AAPL]] @ 173.07 (note: got short yesterday at 175)
[[bbbb]] @ 35.73 (covered my puts yesterday which I bought at 37, decided to short stock to 20s)
[[wabc]] @ 45.23 (Fly rules)
Got Long:
[[BEAT]] @ 29.24 ( I hope my DNA tell is on. I may be a little early.)
[[ExAC]] @ 31.04









That machine is drunk again.
July 15th, 2008 at 3:57:48 pmNo that’s me.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:01:49 pmAt the time of typing, we were up 65 in the dow, and at that point you’d expect a lot of buying in the machine, if, woohoo, we hit bottom and had reversed 200 odd, and yet, in the machine, there was none. It worked quite well for me.
So I happily re shorted and now am up on them all.
especially aapl and wabc.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:02:57 pmi can’t find a reason to cover banks. even USB is fucking up. perhaps buffet buying the rest of it could lead to a cover rally or something, but that’s a flimsy thesis.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:20:59 am[...] Via Stock Picks and Discussion at iBankCoin.com: [...]
July 17th, 2008 at 11:00:39 am