Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) [[FMCN]] is going to $16.75 by year-end. Earnings will disappoint, the Olympics will be over, and Chinese stocks will still suck–at least, this is my dream.

Whether or not you want to take this sterling advice is none of my business. I plan on adding to the small canoe of puts I already own with more puts, and lower strike puts. Especially if it bounces near a trendline, 26, or 30, or 43.

Worst case is that I’m “short-term wrong” upon earnings and it gaps up 25%. That would be great news, I’d swear lightly and drink a case of Stella. That’s why I’m buying puts.

Keep in mind that the puts in total I am buying only represent a small amount of my overall portfolio and so on, but that if my target price is achieved I will make many, many thousands of “increasingly less worthless” dollars.

I already made my fundamental exposé of lameness a few months and 13 points ago. I am pressing my bet.

This company, please listen to me slowly, sucks. I don’t want to hear about GS’s price target. They’ve been wrong for about forever. FMCN places cheap LCDs around town and displays ads. That’s not a natural resource monopoly or a proprietary formula. It receives Chinese Ad budgets in advance, giving them predictability of earnings, and it acquires new ad markets to grow.

They currently control 90% of the market. Wow! A real stranglehold! They must be raking it in right, lolz?!

No. They said they aren’t raising prices. Forgive my skepticism of the Chinamen, but if I was up to my neck in people vying for my primo real estate with no competitors and I control 90% of the market, we’ll, excuse me for raising prices like a normal tycoon tyrant. That is precisely why monopolies are illegal. Good ol’ China, and these a-holes can’t even gouge? WTF

These ads, under PRC law, are to be approved prior to their public display and monitored for content. The company does not monitor the requirements. This sort of reminds me of the time their Focus Media Wireless unit spammed a billion Chinese cell-phones illegally and then got shut-down, costing the company a significant portion of its market cap. But I explain that chicanery better in my other note.

Essentially, they don’t regulate their main market (out of home advertising), making them liable to an angry China. They admit to this, you just have to read the filing.

Here’s another beautiful part, the Cramerican logic.

Everywhere, across the land, retail investors own this stock because it “represents Chinese growth,” is in the NDAQ100, and has the appearance of good fundamentals, low debt, etc. You should read what these hardcore holders say on the YHOO boards — it is insane.

I, however, think growth is slowing. When you look up a company, and it says its EPS growth rate, is, say, 70% and the company is trading at a ludicrously low F P/E, like, oh I dunno, 9.8x, THAT MEANS GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS ARE WRONG. That is the homework these people do to justify the cheapness of FMCN. They did their hw. They looked it up on Yahoo finance, and there it is.

The Olympics are practically over. Wasn’t this an “Olympics Play”? Or was it a China play? Because that hasn’t worked in forevs.

Pretty much, what are they going to say? If they disappoint, it will flush a whole new round of people out, those that have such low cost basis’ that they are hanging on. If you bought in the 30s, good luck.

Or, they deliver overwhelmingly positive news that assuages all my fears and they go [deservedly] higher.

Under $26 is trouble, under $22.60 is big trouble. The following chart is the daily since IPO.