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Technical Analysis, Stock Market Indicators — iBankCoin

iBC Machine Daily Update — 8/11/2008

by Danny on August 12th, 2008 at 1:41:04 am

The iBCMâ„¢ is BULLISH, with all three of my indicators being bullish. Today’s Daily Buy Strengthâ„¢ reading was 3x stronger than the Daily Sell Strengthâ„¢ reading. My Overbought / Oversold Oscillatorâ„¢ is in OVERBOUGHT territory

Notes:

  • Considering that we only rallied 9 points on the S&P with light volume, the iBCM Daily Buy Strengthâ„¢ had a medium-strong reading
  • Currently the most broad-based rally we’ve seen in 12 months. During the last rally, from 4/4/2008 to 5/20/2008, 62 out of 239 sub-groups went up > 10% in the first 2 weeks. Since the last “bottom” on 7/15/2008, 114:239 sub-groups have gone up > 10%. That is significant.

For the last year, small groups would outperform the market at large, but the rallies were not broad-based among many sectors. For instance, I can remember that in 2007, foreign stocks from VIP to CHL ripped higher, and that internet stocks worked. A few months ago Ag, Oils, and Chemicals were the only things that jammed higher.

The difference now is that a LOT of sectors are working, even [shudder] banks.

The market is bullish, though I would not be surprised to see us test this upward trend line (buying op), as I don’t think the bears will give up without a fight.

Additionally, udging from my Natty Ice Lightâ„¢ Indicator, we have probably another 2 weeks of rally time, which will also put us conveniently close to a critical test of the 200-day MA, which I expect to fail.

[I will insert the pic when it finishes calculating]

Of course it will be great to see how the market reacts to the UBS news. A sell-off and test of the uptrend was likely anyway, so perhaps this will serve as the catalyst?

3 Responses to “iBC Machine Daily Update — 8/11/2008”

  1. eh Says:

    we hit 1320-1330 and the downward cascade will begin. [period]

  2. Danny Says:

    sounds fair. lots of resistance there.

  3. Employee8 Says:

    1313 could be close enough …. notes from OEW:

    “After hitting our targeted range of the 1316 - 1327 pivots yesterday, the market pulled back into support at the 1287 pivot today. Tonight at midnight the SEC ban on naked short selling expires, and will not be renewed. They are, however, working on a broader rule which will take months to work out the details. Reminds me of 1938, when the selloff following the 1937 bull market high was blamed on short selling. The SEC then created the uptick rule: stocks could only be shorted after an uptick, and with borrowed shares. This rule was recently revoked on July 6, 2007. Perfect timing! Yesterdays rally to SPX 1313 may have been it for the uptend. A drop below the 1261 pivot would confirm.”

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