iBC Machine Daily Update — 8/13/2008by Danny on August 13th, 2008 at 10:24:48 pm |
The iBCM™ is BULLISH. Today’s BUY Strength™ reading was 1.3x stronger than the Daily Sell Strength™ but on a low reading. My Overbought / Oversold Oscillator™ is in OVERBOUGHT territory, but trending down to neutral.
Sentiment Indicator: Bullish
The above reading indicates that there are more people buying stocks than selling them, which is the fundamental driver of market prices.
The environment is still short-term bullish, long-term bearish. I added today when the S&P cracked 1280, and I plan on buying all through the 1270s. I would be extremely encouraged by a test and hold of the upward trendline tomorrow, where I will buy more index calls. Otherwise, if we bounce, I will unload the index calls I bought today.
If the Index breaks the uptrend line, I will change my tune, however I plan on waiting for confirmation from The Machine via a large Sell Strengthâ„¢ reading before getting meaningfully short.
Also, don’t forget about these important indicators:
S&P Above 20-day MA (1271): True
S&P Above 50-day MA (1291): False
S&P Below 20-day MA 2:3 bars: False, cautious if true.
VIX Above 20-day MA 2:3 bars: False, signals a short if true.
What would NYA tell you if you ran it through the same analysis? Less bullish is my guess.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:42:25 pmThe iBC machine is a perma-bull.
My scrotum says bearish.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:42:37 pmBelieve me, I’ve got a lot of QID. I’m breakeven on it right now, but considering selling it tomorrow. The fucking Nas 100 has been strong as an ox and looks ready to move up again tomorrow.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:48:19 pmcalvino - let me run that, thought it would be a smaller universe of stocks than what I currently use.
Fly - you’ve been wrong for 3 weeks. You are wrong about the Machine–it’s not perma anything. It reflects buying and selling in the market. It’s not my fault you don’t care.
shed - thats the one problem with shorting FMCN
August 13th, 2008 at 11:04:30 pm3 weeks is baby time.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:06:44 pmQID is a dumb mans trade.
Man up and get long SKF.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:07:45 pmTrue. And that is neither here nor there because your ability over any time frame is not in question.
So the put:call ratio is rubbish as well? Obviously volume doesn’t matter? If people are buying more than they’re selling, well, I sure as shit wouldn’t want to know about that.
so what do YOU look at for internal indicators?
a/d line? nyse tick? closing price of skf?
my contention is the iBC M is better than those at what it does.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:11:18 pmI am long SKF, fwiw. risk reward is real low in the 90-115 area.
BUT that doesn’t change the mechanical reading of the machine, which I backtested and is accurate, blah blah blah
August 13th, 2008 at 11:12:39 pmDanny, this guy tests the P/C ratio and seems to show it doesn’t have much predictive value.
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/08/12/the-put-to-call-ratio-is-very-predictable-and-mostly-useless/
August 13th, 2008 at 11:22:36 pmFly, my BAK puts are man enough for me.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:23:27 pmthats fine, bc I never use the put call ratio for anything.
so fuck it.
Insert xyz indicator in its place.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:26:10 pmWell, you asked if the put/call ratio was rubbish.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:30:18 pmDon Juan,
Don’t mind el-midge, I’m sure the iBC machine could pick the colour of every under 16 tarts knickers 9/10 times.
jog on
August 13th, 2008 at 11:30:45 pmduc
shed - it was a rhetorical question question.
ducati - you are correct. I should resume my professional hiatus from posting, it is a waste of time for others to read my gibberish.
I can’t wait to see what you think about the “PPT software”
ta.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:51:32 pmDanny, I stay up every night to read the iBC machine report.
Have you been hanging around with Z-stock?
August 13th, 2008 at 11:54:35 pmDon Juan,
El-midge is a philistine who couldn’t locate a damp patch in the Gobi desert.
jog on
August 14th, 2008 at 12:00:20 amduc
no, fuck that loser. why do you ask?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:00:47 amDanny, cause I’m fucking with you about the whining you were doing..about not posting..haitus..gibberish..
August 14th, 2008 at 12:06:39 amohhhhhhh. ok. then that was hilarious. I guess I had him pegged as more loserey than whiny, but I can see it now.
Am I whining? I wont lie, I have something I’m pissed about, but this ain’t the forum for that.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:14:33 amHey man, that was my fucked up way of saying I like reading your posts.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:17:23 amDanny:
I’m just kidding about the machine. It has done a great job.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:20:35 amOh, and to answer your question: my scrotum is my favorite indicator.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:26:04 amlol…Do you read it like those fuckers who read the bumps on skulls? lmao…
“Ooooh…you just sat in gum, and it has HAIR in it.
No worries, it’s just my scrote sack.”
August 14th, 2008 at 12:31:00 amHey Wood:
I know what you’re trying to do. I warned you.
Go check out your new header.
Enjoy.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:36:48 amComing soon to the iBC PPT: Fly’s Scrote Sack Screener…
August 14th, 2008 at 12:44:57 amAre we going to be charged to use The Fly’s Scrotum Screener(TM)? Because I don’t like paying for that shit.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:01:25 amWell, DP, that depends on how well it works.
I guess we know now that when Fly is getting ready to type up a post, with his glorious recommendations, he sits and rubs his scrotum for a good ten minutes, before posting.
And now we know why he likes white gloves.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:13:56 amHopefully he has an ‘easy-wipe’ chair as well.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:17:33 amHe must prefer the feel of real leather, on his scrote, as compared to a bullshit pleather chair from Staples.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:19:28 amDanny,
I am comparing mkt action, my own analysis and your ibc machine to validate my analysis. So far uptrend is still in tact and your machine is validating that. Your analysis is one nice addition to the analysis. It works until it ain’t.
August 14th, 2008 at 2:39:52 pm