Buy The Sloppy Market?by Danny on August 18th, 2008 at 3:30:29 pm |
Summer trading is gay. Momentum doesn’t follow through and volume is light.
That said, the market is at support on the upward trendline, and I think you can buy it here for a trade.
Be careful it doesn’t break below the support line.
This trade is short term in nature. Don’t forget the bigger picture.
Also, re FMCN, my “spread” worked ok, though I expected the move to be larger than 10%. I lost about $1,000, which was well below my threshold for acceptable loss. I would have been in the money at ~22 or ~32, from ~26. The relative strength back above $26 perhaps shouldn’t have been used as a clue to hedge, but to scrap the trade all together.
Ultimately, earnings plays are always a gamble. It will be interesting to see how it pans out, because FMCN has strong resistance at 30, and it got to $29.74 this morning before backing off.
will break support
August 18th, 2008 at 3:37:33 pmoh you read the future? sweet!
August 18th, 2008 at 3:38:49 pmyep
August 18th, 2008 at 3:40:38 pmthen I would like some free advice. Re FMCN, I still hold some of the position. I think it will trade higher or lower. What do you think?
August 18th, 2008 at 3:58:15 pmLower? hehehe
August 18th, 2008 at 4:06:55 pmafter flipping a coin 24 times, i have concluded that fmcn will at least fill the gap at 35.50
August 18th, 2008 at 4:07:27 pmI think higher, then lower. That would be so ideal. front month 35 calls get sold for 100% gain, oct puts fill when fmcn is at 17.
Will that happen nope?
August 18th, 2008 at 4:13:08 pmI can’t believe you were giving me shat about lazy blogging.
Aren’t you on the freaking payroll, ovah heah??
This is the real world, now, son. No more “Thursday morning” basket weaving classes at eleven.
__
August 18th, 2008 at 6:22:49 pmI just finished this book:
http://www.amazon.ca/Super-Crunchers-Thinking-Numbers-Smart/dp/0553805401/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1219102691&sr=8-1
in which the author pointed out a study in which they found that when a crowd estimates the number of pennies in a jar, the bigger the crowd means the closer to the actual answer the average is.
IE the average of 100 guesses is better than the average of 50 guesses.
That’s why I modded chivas up.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:40:22 pmYes Jake. Don’t worry, I got the material. The market is slow, and I’m in wait and see mode. The rally has NOT broken down yet, but I don’t trust it enough to get long here. So I’m just chillin, waiting to deploy short. The iBCM isn’t particularly telling either. Weak selling, but the financials may be rolling over and they are leading the market more or less. SKF above 130 is my tell.
Big things are nigh.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:18:54 pmchivas - I’ve heard that, that is certainly good news for FMCN.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:19:27 pmCuervo, the Wisdom of Crowds is a book that deals with a lot more of that phenomena.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:32:37 pmChivas is drunk more than half the time he is awake.
True story, ask Vincenzo.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:37:55 pmLMFAO
thank you.
i actually do not drink that much. besides the calories, alcohol reduces the body’s efficiency in burning fat.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:48:51 pmliar.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:53:20 pmfuck it.
you’re right.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:56:07 pmbtw, who’s Vincenzo?
August 18th, 2008 at 10:59:12 pmYou know damn well who Vincenzo is.
August 18th, 2008 at 11:02:16 pmoh yeah. now i remember. thank you
August 18th, 2008 at 11:04:13 pm