The market is not back above support.  It still looks like a false breakout to me.  For one, the market has failed ten times at 1300-1310.  It is perfectly “kissing” the underside of the trendline it maintained [subsequently broke] since the July 15th lows. Adding to the laundry list is the RSI(5), which is overbought.

What else…Oh, I know, it’s the extremely repetitive market pattern of momentum not following through.  You can basically blindly short the market when it’s up three days in a row or more.  Shit is a slam dunk, except for one notable occasion boxed in white.

Then there’s the complacency in the VIX.  As I mentioned the other time, it’s best to wait for red to get short, but in any event, gold has been a low-risk time to get short.  Plus, if you notice the past ten trading days, a gold condition has been a short signal.

Then there are these breadth indicators, signaling near overbought conditions in the TRIN (coded in red).  If we go up tomorrow, it will likely trigger, and you can see visually in the middle pane that it has worked pretty well as a short signal.

At this point, your probably thinking “d00d, we broke out of 1300, lolz.”  Like I said, I think it is a false breakout and am willing to short it up to 1310 happily.

Here’s some more graphings:

Percentage of Stocks Above 40day MA: Nearing overbought at 62%

Percentage of Stocks Under 200day MA: Suggests the rally could continue to the 200-day at ~1360. This is a short-to-medium term indicator and it’s semi-bullish position doesn’t change the great certainty of a pullback in the immediate future.  My quick conclusion is that if more than half of stocks are above the 200-day MA, then on the margin “stocks are up.”  Also, that area acts as support/resistance on the chart.

McClellan: Same conclusion as the 200-day.  If this continues to follow through, 1360 could be in play.  This might just be the sickest plan–sucker em in with a “good start to a historically bad September,” and then unleash the homohammer of mastodonic fury all over equities and the simpletons caught holding them.

iBC Machine: Bullish, but short-term overbought, which aligns with my other evidence.

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So there you have it.  Nearly all of my main indicators say today was a high probability short, and so is tomorrow if we go higher.  Boom-selecta.