Buying Garbageby The Fly on November 30th, 2007 at 10:47 am |
Right here, I’m taking profits on high quality names, like VMW, BBY, JCG, FTK, and “plowing money” into low-end garbage stocks.
Odd, no?
Just know, my rational is weak. I’m betting on a fucking short squeeze, thanks in large part to the sweaty palms of the shorts.
Currently, I’m aggressively buying ACF.
In addition, I might buy more CFC, SPF.
Finally, if properly inebriated, I might buy RDN, WM, SOV and maybe even CORS.
NOTE: My time frame is less than 1 week.
Angie will sell you some CFC- remember he has grandkids college expenses to worry about. Scary Tanned Fucker drinks tanning lotion.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:52 amFLY…like you better when sober, mean drunks are never invited to the best parties…no soup for you three days, come back tuesday.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:53 amWait… what am I missing… didn’t the short squeeze just happen?
I know I’m treading on thin ice here, so I’ll go back to my third tier blog.
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 10:54 amZander stepping down may actually be good for MVIS. They are now under extreme pressure to come up with another supercool phone, and I can’t think think of anything more sensational than a well-designed phone with a PicoP built-in.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:56 amBBY? Now? I’m with you DT. Ack. My head hurts. I’m going to the gym. Maybe DD will be there and I can drop a weight on his dumbell.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:57 amNQ - 0.23%
YM + 0.43%
ES + 0.68%
ER2 + 0.97%
Weird day. Who would have picked the Russell over the Nas?
November 30th, 2007 at 10:57 amMVIS- drinks Apple Martini’s
November 30th, 2007 at 10:58 amDT:
You’re a fucktard.
Kmorph:
Tok just emailed and said “We are following the same course…nothing changed.”
November 30th, 2007 at 10:58 amAnyone who saw Dell shit the bed last night?
Disclosure — I waited for the gap up on the open.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:01 amPS — Which includes that I still am not buying stock.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:02 amSo bored I’m watching Willard Romney on C-SPAN2.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:02 amFlytard,
C’mon, the Dow just rallied over 600 points in 3 days led by the most beaten down names. Isn’t that the definition of a short-squeeze?
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 11:04 amSorry, that was the end of Tokman’s e-mail, not a “PS” to Riverrat.
Say Riverrat… I used to play rugby in Richmond with a similary appellated team.
Is there a connection?
November 30th, 2007 at 11:06 amBison,
You mean “my next President” don’t you?
November 30th, 2007 at 11:07 amFly, ans Co.
Speaking about trash, the Bond Insures have been a no mans land, hit hard, like a like someone who dear ly insulted the FLY MAN himself, an amtom bomb…..But things may change and theirs lots of shorts covering and upside…the list
abk,pmi,mbi,rdn,mtg and sca or sac-
What’da think….
November 30th, 2007 at 11:07 amJake, nah, I’m just a river rat …
November 30th, 2007 at 11:09 amJake, I don’t trust anyone who went to Hahvahd Lawr.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:14 amExpecting another squeeze and using low end garbage …. then what could be better than SIRI …. DOJ ruling due today or Monday and FCC decision to follow ….
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-2&symbol=SIRI.O&storyID=2007-11-27T212624Z_01_N27529482_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SHORTINTEREST-NASDAQ-FACTBOX.XML&type=qcna
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-4&symbol=SIRI.O&storyID=2007-11-14T214648Z_01_N14202507_RTRIDST_0_SOROS-HOLDINGS-URGENT.XML&type=qcna
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bear-stearns-doj-ok-sirius/story.aspx?guid=%7B9E9DDBC5%2D8777%2D43BC%2D82BF%2DD9A5C518A5A4%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
November 30th, 2007 at 11:15 amI like the 40 and 35 $ calls on mbi, also I like rdn looking at the calls NOW….if the stock comes in a bit more I would nibble,,,
November 30th, 2007 at 11:15 amafter a 700 point rally total p/c today is over 1 and ise p/c very low. very bullish. i think the homies and stocks like cfc-wm-fnm-fre-mbi are really going to rock and roll. the q’s may actually underperform. imagine if the boe and ecb cut rates next wk.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:17 amBison… He got his MBA at Harvard and picked up the JD as an addendum because he was bored and his IQ was 150 points higher than the next smartest guy.
He never practiced law, which is an important thing to note when assessing deal guys.
Anyone who has ever practiced law is irredeemably compromised, unfortunately.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:17 amNever underestimate a short squeeze. Especially when people started shorting this thing after the first two hundred points and have been plowing in ever since. Is it just me, or is the crowded trade to be short?
November 30th, 2007 at 11:18 amcrowded.
The shorts all think this rally will fail.
Hence, they are reupping their bets here.
We go up another 500 points from here, near term.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:21 amIf you were watching the tape yesterday, there was selling all day, but the bears didn’t really get anywhere with it. It is likely a matter of who wears out first. It is much tougher being short, so the bias has got to be long.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:22 amI heard romney employs illegal s at his mansion. rudy rudy rudy.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:23 amSorry.
Non-Protestants will never become President.
We’ve tried that shit before. Sadly, it didn’t work out too good.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:23 amFly Said: Tok just emailed and said “We are following the same course…nothing changed.â€
you mean he said, ‘we are fulloweeng thee sam cooorse… nofeeng chainged.’
November 30th, 2007 at 11:24 amDoesn’t matter who the GOP nominates, the women and black people will go all out for Hillary. I’ll just throw my vote away and write in for Ron Paul next November.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:25 amLooks like the bond insurers are ready to head for day highs…..mbi abk mtg rdn and so on….what could make them come in from here now? especially with the propect for good news by monday for the US and Banks..hey these pices of crap paper are gonna jump, and their prolbems will be relived some…home prices will also see some gains..
November 30th, 2007 at 11:25 amGOOG and AMZN positive. Spokesperson for fat lady makes vague reference to a “scheduling conflict” as the entourage abruptly leaves.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:29 amBison,
Hillary is no lock. She is far too hated to ever convert voters. With the electorate so divided, I think a less polarizing centrist would fare better.
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 11:30 amThe math is simple. None of these Republicans is electable. Hillary is the least bad among the Dems.
We’re fucked regardless.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:33 amBison — problem with your woman supposition is that half the women in the US hate her.
Maybe more than half.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:35 amVote Huckabee
November 30th, 2007 at 11:35 amRomney’s eminantly electable. Sadly for one major reason:
He’s good looking.
Got that fucktard Clinton elected.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:36 amThe title of this post led me to believe that you’re advocating a buy on WMI.
Apparently I inferred wrong, but I guess then it’s up to me to advocate it. Buy WMI. They’re looking to rebound off the asshanding they’ve received for the past 2 months. Can’t have garbage piling up now, can we?
Notice: This is by no means an educated call, the idea is purely a result the title of this post.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:36 amHuckabee would be fine if he weren’t a tax raising fool.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:36 amHe wants to eliminate all Federal Income and Payroll taxes, Jake.
His stance on prevantative healthcare measures is the smartest I’ve seen yet.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:39 amWe can all short the shit out of the market if the good looking one (Edwards) wins.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:40 amVolume coming into indexes is average.
Fly’s right, it is hard to be short here.
The bulls have got to push up through 1490 and 2700(comp) and it will be lights out for bears, at least until Dec. 11
November 30th, 2007 at 11:40 amGood to see A/D still around 4 to 1 and up vol 4.5X down vol.
Bulls still in control. There could very well be a short squeeze. Tradebots in position. Sorry, Jake.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:42 ami do admit i have an iq under par, but i don’t think it matters as to who is in the white house.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:43 amMoney coming into account on low trading volume, what should I do shed???
November 30th, 2007 at 11:43 amYou dead wrong, chivason.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:44 amAlpha, I don’t see the leaders leading here.
If not, then who are the 4 to 1s? Is it garbage leading this?
I’m not trying to be sarcastic. I’m thinking DT could be right that the short squeeze is petering out.
No offense (petering out) to Fly’s MVIS penis.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:44 ambison- would not be the first time.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:45 amWood,
While it’s true it’s a tough spot to be short, I think it’s tougher to be buying here.
Perhaps it’s best to just chill out and wait a couple of weeks before acting heavily one way or the other.
Who is the new dickhead, “Dennis” on CNBC? Can’t they find anyone likeable?
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 11:45 amwood- is possible we could be seeing a change in leadership
November 30th, 2007 at 11:46 amChivas, absolutely, if you follow traditional theory. In fact, that would be a big positive for the Bulls.
DT- Chilling out here makes sense. I think we could be range bound.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:49 amFly: Please enforce your “No Politics” rule.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:51 amWTF Is this now a political blog ? Screw politcs !
F*ck the Repukelicans and the Democraps !
Party’s over boys. If the last two rate cuts couldn’t get things on track what makes people believe another rate cut will. Cutting rates is like treating cancer with morphine. You can surpress the pain temporarily but the root problem still remains.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:52 amCutting rates will accomplish nothing.
Fly,
Maybe one day next year, like on Super Tuesday or something, we can all talk politics and let the fur fly.
How about that?
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 11:53 amChivas, who is likely to lead out? Or where does the leadership seem to be coming from?
November 30th, 2007 at 11:53 amconsumer discretionary and financials in my opinion. healthcare should catch up
November 30th, 2007 at 11:56 amtech will continue to do well also
November 30th, 2007 at 11:57 amBond insures = run run run , run away! ah the music!
November 30th, 2007 at 11:58 amIf financials lead out of this, I’ll be surprised. I like healthcare and large cap tech.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:59 amChivas,
Quick note… the financials will not be “leading” the market anytime soon.
I think the ag names and the energy sector could continue to lead should this “rally” continue.
Meanwhile, if it does continue, I’ll discontinue the use of quotation marks when I say, rally.
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 11:59 amI like huckelberry…seemed to be in touch.. he would be bad for bwld good for ntri.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:01 pmMeanwhile, out in the real world, I wonder how cheaper credit is going to solve the problem of a broken model for funding that credit.
The rush by state and municipal short-term cash funds to barf up the asset-backed commercial paper they hold is revving up. Grab some popcorn.
We can also start up the betting pool on the number of simultaneous lawsuits that CFC will be involved in, as each link of the mortgage financing/securitization/insuring/rating chain sues every other link.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:12 pmOttnot, what do you think about the default swaps?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:13 pmwood, i strongly believe that the yield curve is about to steepen big time. that and if and i admit is a big if, bernanke and paulson succeed it will almost be a perfect storm for the financials and even the homies. what hurt the market imo was the stupid fed minutes of 10/31. they will not make that mistake again. the stakes are too high. people that say cuts did not help are dead wrong. it was those 10/31 minutes that did the market in. fly got it right, no confidence. fed and paulson will not let that happen again. they got religion really quick. the surprise will be imo, that as the fed cuts the dollar will go higher. sorry for the long rant. and wood you’re incredibly right, a change in leadership will be incredibly bullish.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:14 pmHow much JCG do you own? Curious as there could be a massive squeeze on it soon with the big short position in it.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:18 pmottnott:
cheaper credit saves us how? becasuse these banks can avoid putting all that crap back on the balance sheet… as long as they have sufficent tier 1 capital they can tell the regulators to pound salt… as for lawsuits, banks have more lawyers on payroll that your girl friend has crabs in his boxers…keeping the crap off the balacne sheet is the only thing that matters.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:19 pmcrowded trades that i think will unravel; short dollars - long oil -long gold and ( long q’s and short financials )
November 30th, 2007 at 12:21 pmNice call on TIF!
November 30th, 2007 at 12:22 pmI like where your head’s at, Chivas.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:23 pmgodcat- thank you
November 30th, 2007 at 12:25 pmTIF shaping up to be a textbook technical short. And you say you don’t read charts.
Maybe if I draw a penis on it, you’ll pay more attention.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:25 pmChivas, only problem. If the dollar short unravels, what will that do to manufacturing and exports?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:26 pmIn March ‘03 we tested the Oct. ‘02 lows. Sentiment was extremely bearish, the FED was accomodative and the tax cuts provided fiscal stimulus. Tech/telecom, the former leaders, didn’t lead. Nobody believed the the beaten to a pulp materials/resources would lead the market higher. But they did.
We just tested the August lows. Sentiment is extremely bearish. The FED is accomodative, and all signs are pointing to a federally assisted housing bailout (fiscal stimulus). The beaten to a pulp financials are leading, and nobody believes in the rally.
Anybody notice a pattern?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:27 pmWood, I have no background in that area, but common sense says that the person selling the insurance used models that underestimated the losses on mortgage-related securities by at least an order of magnitude.
Which means that they can’t make good on their side of the deal.
I’m too lazy to provide a live link right now, but here’s some discussion on the matter:
November 30th, 2007 at 12:28 pmhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/11/counterparty-risk-problems-with-credit.html
Wood give me the technical read on GS when you get a chance. I am looking for it to get to 240.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:28 pmThis coming from a man who has been short the market and long MVIS, what a combo these days.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:29 pmwood, i don’t think thats a problem, it will not happen overnight and i believe in the global growth scenario. our exports manufacturing will be fine.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:29 pmQuestion Please: If I were intrested to buy a long call on the 10 year (tnx) what symbol do I need, ? or how? thanks Alll!
November 30th, 2007 at 12:29 pmGapping, you’ve got a lot of resistance at today’s highs. Actually, today was a third test of a downtrend line.
Also, the Bollinger Bands are tightening with the upper band just below 240 today. This is measuring a decrease in volatility.
It looks like it might get range bound here between 205 and 235. Although a *quick* jump up to 240 wouldn’t be surprising. It will just get met with quick selling, imo.
Given time, I’ll put a chart up of it tonight. It is an interesting pattern.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:33 pmNewE, please. My short position was doubled today and it is still not worth more than 2K.
I may be bearish, but I’m not an idiot.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:34 pmFrosty wrote:
“keeping the crap off the balacne sheet is the only thing that matters”
Worked well for Enron, didn’t it?
The off-balance-sheet crap doesn’t go away and it will keep getting crappier.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:34 pmpudfucker - great post.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:36 pmTalking about the December calls?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:36 pmWhy is the time of all posts off by 2 hours? Can’t you throw something at your trader/servant/webmaster?
And what the hell is a “woodshedder”?
What a wooden dog does?
A builder of Sheds?
A whittler?
Or what happens during a hot lesbian porno scene and your TV inexplicably changes channels to Rosie Odonnel?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:37 pmThanks wood I am long GS calls and short LEH via puts.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:38 pmottnott,
Bingo.
-DT
November 30th, 2007 at 12:39 pmIt’s where one gets taken out to…
November 30th, 2007 at 12:39 pmyes…..I only know the index symbol TNX and I see its just that not tradable, is their and etf that follows it…TIA.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:39 pmCigars
The time stamp was fixed last night.
It really has been 2 hours since last post, ironically.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:39 pmGot the TIF tip from an employee.
The guy makes the fucking bracelets.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:41 pmGapping, there are a variety sites out there for free that will calculate probability of the options closing in the money.
Cigars, ask Boomer. He can tell you what a woodshedder does.
LOL at the O’donnel joke.
And yeah, what’s up with the time of these posts?
Finall question, will we stay range bound all day, or will be break out of it?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:41 pmAnyone here want to play with dynamite and buy ETFC Jan 09 5’s
November 30th, 2007 at 12:43 pmI am opening some nice vintage whiskey thanks to JCG!
November 30th, 2007 at 12:46 pmNo idea why you want to buy one call but here’s it is:
November 30th, 2007 at 12:47 pmhttp://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/options1.asp?symb=TNX
Cut loose 50% of my JCG position at 48.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:48 pmottnot know not…you compare the us banking system to enrone…and yes if crap stays off the balcance sheet it goes away without impacting the captial stucture of the banks balance sheet…tier one capital is pooring in from around the world to keep that very thing from happening…ottnot “I have no back round in the area, but commons sense”…common sense an a buck will get you a cup of coffer…intro to banking, class dismissed.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:48 pmGap-I’m surprised you have any fingers left.
I got a gaudy direct mail pc. from E- Trade touting $5 trades and .75 cent options per contract for 6 months, somebody had to pay the postage. I’m not sure I’d want be the printer though.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pmFrosty, tier one capital is trickling in. Definitely not pouring.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:50 pmNice trade Gapping.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:50 pmAlright Broker don’t fuck me here pal, I took a position in VMI. Looks good risk/reward vs LNN.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:50 pmFrosty -
That’s nice. The banks won’t fail.
There’s a big world out there. Some parts of it aren’t a bank.
Thanks for the lesson. Can I get out of this cramped little closet now?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:52 pmThanks Wood, whats funny is my mom, who is a fucking shop-a-holic, did most of the work for me. She said to short ANF by the way. Odd, no?
November 30th, 2007 at 12:52 pmHas anybody seen Jake lately?
Somebody took hostages in a Clinton campaign office.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:53 pmThanks B Burge- Much appricated your effort ! but thta the same I have, not a real bond trader I guess, thats the index, I have no idea what the underlying security would be….IF ANYONE KNOW HOW TO BUY CALLS AND PUTS ON THE TEN YEAR TNX PLEASE LET ME NO…otherwise….I will call my broke!r
November 30th, 2007 at 1:00 pmHow the hell did you manage to insert an exclamation point in that word?
November 30th, 2007 at 1:01 pmottnot…peace…all is not well with the world,I do concur…but, folks here need not hear uninformed crisis mongering, the tape is tuff enough to manage without such senseless blather..oooppsss…sorry, peace phase II….this time I really mean it.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:05 pmHow!e has alot of money. I!ll betcha.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:06 pmI hope no one is losing money, but I got to tell you it is making my fucking day to see these big ass reversal candles across the boards.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:06 pmstick a fork in the rally
monday may start out ok due to beginning of month inflows & buying but I’d go the other way on that
November 30th, 2007 at 1:06 pmA woodshedder is someone who practices their instrument with rigor. You “go to the woodshed” to study and get your shit together. Then you come out and burn.
I bet woodshedder plays almost as good as me. Playing guitar is the single most bestest thing I do.
BTW - BOOM printed $66 and then the shorts piled on. Bitches. I hate em. That is why I keep adding. Just to frustrate them.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:08 pmBoomer- a Collings D1-A.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:10 pmHowie, I don’t know if your broker can help you because your question doesn’t make any sense.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:11 pmBoom is being taken down due to CFO selling shares, longs bailing as CFO is calling a top with his sells.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:13 pmBoomer- send me an email. I have a vid of me pickin’
November 30th, 2007 at 1:15 pmListe!n All I have to say is, I would like to buy options on the 10 year? Thats it.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:15 pmhowie, look at tlt. they have options
November 30th, 2007 at 1:17 pm“Boom is being taken down due to CFO selling shares, longs bailing as CFO is calling a top with his sells.”
No, wrong. He, the head of sales, and CEO all had planned partial sales. They had not sold a single share in over a year, and recently received a new exec compensation plan with generous options. What they sold was between 5 and 20% of their long term holdings, from a previous plan. Fuck you very much.
See you at $68 next week shorty. I will absolutely rub it in, if you dare identify your anonymous self. Tool.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:20 pmThis shit is bananas.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:22 pmI give up.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:23 pmchivasontherocks, thanks forgot about that-
November 30th, 2007 at 1:24 pmNice gtr, shed.
I am mainly an electric player. 60s Gretsch 6120. Vintage 70s LP. Vintage SG. Vintage Esquire. Martin M-38 is my main acoustic. I have about 50 gtrs all in. I’ve narrowed in on my amps, though. I used to have a bunch, but have found my voice in a Vox, coincidentally. AC-15. Bunch of pedals. Analogman, Keeley, vintage tape delays, bunch of stuff.
I will ping you for your vid.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:24 pmTLT is not 10-year.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:25 pmno thats TLT and its the long B
November 30th, 2007 at 1:25 pmok lets talk guitar players …. who are your faves Boom-boom ?
November 30th, 2007 at 1:27 pmThe A/D is now at 2-1; up vol only 2X down vol. The rally is fizzling out. Did somebody unplug Tradebots? I hate it when they do that.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:30 pmBoom- I’m starting to listen to Country Music- I have to admit I kind of like it- it dumbs you down a bit. Good stuff the world needs more C&W
November 30th, 2007 at 1:30 pmAh! Guitar players. Let’s see…
Edge, hands down my fav. Accessible music, wonderful tone, supports the song, breathtaking use of technology.
He is not a real picker, though. More like a painter than a picker.
On the rock side, you can’t go wrong with vintage Eddie Van Halen. Pre meth. Pre Hagar. Pre false teeth. I sent a vid to Fly. Maybe he’ll post it tonight. Just sick.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:31 pm