Year End Review: It Was the Best of Times: It was the Worst of Times
It has been a moderately successful year for “The Fly.”
During the early going of 2007, I was as hot as a pistol, with smoking gains in [[MVIS]], [[BWLD]], [[CENX]], [[NTRI]], [[LNN]], [[IVAC]] and [[HANS]].
Then, all of a sudden, things stopped working.
First, I got knee capped by a variety of bullshit stocks, like [[ARWR]] and [[MCHX]].
Then, the [[MVIS]] bandwagon got “dewheeled,” sending “The Fly” scrambling for safety. For most of the summer, I was forced to endure painful declines in a variety of key holdings, like [[NTRI]] and [[BWLD]].
I missed out on a lot of big winners, particularly in the solar sector. But that’s ok.
I find it easier to buy and sell what I understand. Most of my big mistakes come from speculative dice rolls, which end up being long term capital losses.
I must say, during 2007, the market was very difficult to game. The retailers, ethanol, homies, trannies, banks, semi’s and networkers all blew the fuck up. And still, the major indices are up, year to date.
Amazing.
To put things in perspective: I went from being up 47% in June, to up 20% now. A staggering decline, yet still up nicely.
Because of this, I forced myself to divorce from key holdings and put protective hedges on accounts, via inverse ETF’s.
Furthermore, I made sure not to take unneeded risk in momentum sectors, like solar or emerging markets.
To sum things up:
The only reason why I’m still up 20% is due to my long term strategy to hold quality stocks. Within my top 10 holdings, three of them (RIMM, AAPL and GME) enjoyed triple digit returns in 2007.
However, going into 2008, I seriously doubt they can repeat. The law of large numbers will eventually kick in and those stocks will become legacy.
So, like every new year, I will be hard at work, trying to identify the next RIMM or GME. Additionally, I need to stick with my short sales longer. Looking back, I nailed short calls on [[CWTR]], [[HLYS]], [[RACK]] and [[LAZ]]. However, due to my bullish disposition, I covered them too quickly.
In 2008, I believe China will drop significantly, enriching those who hold [[FXP]]. Also, on the long side, I sense agriculture and filtration companies will do well. Stocks like [[MON]], [[MOS]], [[VMI]] and [[DCI]] should be bought on dips. Also, considering we are entering an election year, many sectors will be jolted by poll stats.
In other words, investors will have to be nimble in 2008, in order to adjust to the political headwinds and economic instability.
My goal for 2008 is to double my 2007 return of 20%. If I cannot accomplish this task, without doubt, I will be moving to the cold mountains of Romania, where I will milk goats for the duration of my life.
20%?
You might be able to manage the Treasury’s money.
Let me see what I can do.
December 27th, 2007 at 1:32 pmGood luck in 2008.
December 27th, 2007 at 1:37 pmyou were up 15% for the year, check your calculator, you hedged with shorts and went neutral a few weeks ago.
December 27th, 2007 at 1:40 pmTrue.
But RIMM, VMI and AAPL have surged since then.
Fuck you.
December 27th, 2007 at 1:45 pmAssuming MVIS comes out of CES still at 4, and still quiet as a mouse on the news front, do you hold or redeploy?
December 27th, 2007 at 1:45 pmredeploy
December 27th, 2007 at 1:48 pmMOS is an undiscovered gem. It’s only up 400% in the past year.
When people learn about the bull market in ag commodities, it’s going to rip.
December 27th, 2007 at 2:02 pmFly- Happy New Year… Thanks for for putting this blog on the air. It truly is educational and entertaining.
What I’m most impressed with- is how you responded to some pretty big hits. Yes being up 47% insulates a lot of the shock- none the less you never pussed out and ran away….you always came on the air with your commentary.
Sending Midwest Karma for 08!
December 27th, 2007 at 2:06 pmWhat about oil services, shippers, or eduction? You didn’t get in for 2007? You won’t be able to achieve 40% unless you take on more risk.
I predict Fly will make less than 20% for 2008.
December 27th, 2007 at 2:13 pmLiar.
I’m long VLO, GLF and RIG.
Fuck educashion [sic].
December 27th, 2007 at 2:15 pmThanks for this year Fly. Looking forward to 2008 with you. Happy New Year.
December 27th, 2007 at 2:29 pmWell done. Congrats on a fine year in a challenging environment.
December 27th, 2007 at 2:39 pmrock the jukebax
GLD
MERKX
PWE
MVIS+
BWLD
SKF
FXP
SRS
BUSH-BUSH-BUSH-CLINTON-CLINTON-BUSH-BUSH-RONPAUL
December 27th, 2007 at 3:03 pmBWLD, MVIS, NTRI, fuck you. See you in Romania, I’m the goat with the bleeding ass.
December 27th, 2007 at 3:06 pmok i agree…
dxddx to the max
mvis
flizzle - will you make 40 % early by March ‘08 and then walk around new york eating hot dogs at will for the rest of the year?
December 27th, 2007 at 3:24 pmThanks Fly. You’re blog is primarily responsible for getting me motivated to start investing again way back in January. Good luck to you in 2008.
BTW, HLYS had a nice day today. It was one of the few non-electronic gifts that sold well this Christmas.
December 27th, 2007 at 4:10 pmI know a guy who know’s a guy that has a sheep farm ready for the taking.
December 27th, 2007 at 5:27 pmUse the force Fly…G L in 08
Fly,
You suck. I hope you blow up and lose your house in 2008.
Meanwhile, if you do, can I have your spoon collection?
Thanks, Merry New Year.
-DT
December 27th, 2007 at 6:43 pmAsian Markets-
December 27th, 2007 at 7:08 pmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68v4g6ZjNlw
i learned a lot from you this year. Your honesty here is most imprtant
December 27th, 2007 at 10:31 pmMaking a call on Asia like that is amateur, that trade will lose money.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:30 pmYen carry in full reverse tonight…
Ruh roh!
December 28th, 2007 at 12:35 amwhether i agree with you or not, your summary is why i read your blog and admire you. it takes balls and confidence to write what you have written. it also is why you’re a success. however next yr plays out, you will win.
December 28th, 2007 at 6:09 amFly, if you want to be successful in 08 you only have to buy low and sell high and if there is any way I can help you with that, just let me know. Happy New Year and Good Health!
December 29th, 2007 at 9:24 pm