Never Bet Against the Guy with the Time Machine
Much to his enemies chagrin, “The Fly” is back to making “severe coin,” this time as a bull killing machine.
It’s been documented here, “The Fly” is a “space alien magician,” who is able to make “unhuman-like” market calls—effectively making life entirely “unfun” for all other third tier bloggers.
While it’s true, I still own a truck full worth of [[RIMM]], [[AAPL]] and others, I still managed to close out the week +5%, thanks to my double inverse positions and heavy [[LEH]] short position.
Sometime soon, I expect the market will bounce, giving you retards who are still long a 3rd chance (”The Fly” gave you two chances to get out) to bail and get flat or short.
In case you are wondering, money managers need to raise cash, to the tune of 5-10%. Going into year end, most funds were fully invested.
As predicted, now, we are seeing the result of what happens when asset managers, who control trillions, decide to raise 5% cash, all at once.
Top pick: [[DUG]]
NOTE: Show some fucking respect.
Good point on the fund managers raising cash. Good times for Juju bear.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:20 pmI’m going to buy neti pots on margin.
When Fly brings back some future disease that produces mucus in formerly unimagined quantities, I will make a killing.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:32 pmQ- Why do old men like to watch porno in rewind mode.
A- They get off seeing the prostitute handing the money back.
Recessions suck….Fly as Bear thats going to take some getting used to.
I have not read one comment today that this stock looks cheap or that stock is a buy.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:41 pmwhy do prostitutes watch porno in reverse?
because it looks cool.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:57 pmand they believe it makes the syphilis they got from an old man go away.
“syphilis”
How old are you Phat?
January 4th, 2008 at 3:02 pm“I still manged (sic) to close out the week +5%,”
You have ress mange if you serr you LIMM when I terr you, Sweah’n'gn.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:11 pmi am 36 and about to go rock it for the weekend.
a syphilis-free weekend… though i think the market has turned venereal.
i am mostly out of the market by the way, with a few exceptions, a dozen or so long term holds, and a few short positions. i don’t make it a habit of sticking my dick in a meat grinder. I am in the wait mode… only day and swing trading.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:17 pmVery nice intra-day reversal in AEO today on 2x normal volume. Most of the volume came after the reversal this afternoon. And it all came on a horrible overall market tape.
In my experience, this creates a high probability long-side set-up.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:37 pmWhich one of you sick fucks lives in Miami?
http://www.miamiherald.com/458/story/366527.html
January 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pmParker said the suspect could not be arrested for bestiality because it isn’t a crime. The prosecutor added that the man is ”definitely a suspect” because he was arrested trying to take another person’s goat Feb. 3 shortly after Meg was choked to death from her collar that had been tightly held around her neck.
I’m sorry, but that’s too fucking funny.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:13 pmWolf,
January 4th, 2008 at 4:16 pmThey stoned guys like that in Old Testament times. No sense in having his genes pollute the general population.
project paperclip
MVIS+
What will the Fly reveal on selling some MVIS?
Not too bad of an investment for the year too…
January 4th, 2008 at 4:40 pmJust FYI a source close to me says GPS stores appear to be liquidating like mad. Not only Gap but also Banana Republic. I am meeting with a couple of managers this weekend to find out the deal-e-o but it doesn’t look good for retailers at all. They have a huge amount of inventory.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:59 pmMay be worth adding to apple here considering mac world and ces.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:15 pmFly,
January 4th, 2008 at 6:12 pmDo you know if mvis is going to have supply chain issues???? Are your sources telling you that product launch will be delayed?
kd
Fly,
Here is a play over the next few weeks for your Time Machine to think about - short Basic Materials. Economy is slowing down, hence demand for basics will also slow, which will push down sales and price. Given the prices that must be paid for basics, margins will be pushed down as well. A dollar recovery in early ‘08 will put additional pressure on overseas earnings of basics, thus compounding the problem. Of course, a continued reduction of rates here may retard the dollars recovery, so this scenario may not play out. Nevertheless, the charts all look overbought from a technical standpoint on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. What is especially nice about this play is the run up that basics have had in ‘07 was a hearty 30%. This gives us some nice free-fall, spread your wings area below.
Plug these into your Time Machine and tell me what comes out:
Long - SMN
Short - IYM, FCL, RTI, OLN, and HUN
January 4th, 2008 at 6:25 pmContrarian Trade?
————————————————
The AAII percentage of bulls dropped to 25.71% this week from 30.0% the prior week. This reading remains at depressed levels. The AAII percentage of bears rose to 55.24% this week from 50.0% the prior week. This reading remains at an elevated level. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 47.4%, a very elevated level. It has only been higher one other period in its history, which was September 1990-December 1990. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% right near the major bear market low during 2002. It is astonishing that the 10-week moving average of the % bears is currently greater than at any time during the bubble bursting meltdown of 2000-2003, which was arguably the worst stock market decline since the Great Depression.
Furthermore, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 39.1%, also a very elevated level seen during only one other period since tracking began in the 80s. That period was October 1990-July 1991, right near another major stock market bottom. The extreme reading of the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during that period peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991. The current reading of 39.1% is above the peak during the 2000-2003 bear market, which was 38.1% on April 10, 2003. I find this even more astonishing, notwithstanding the recent pullback, given that the S&P 500 is currently 96.9% higher from the October 2002 major bear market lows and 8.6% off its recent record high.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:38 pmYou know broker I am still fucking pissed that the faggot Jeff turd burgler fucked up the MVIS story that was set to take off in the market. I mean hell your blowing out of your position now even. Its just bullshit how a sure winner turned into a steaming pile of dog turds all because some guy who sucks cocks on a daily basis fucked the shit up. Asshattery… I can’t wait to get all Chuck on his ass on the next conference call.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:28 pmGap, you need to STFU, you faggot. Take responsibility for your fucking cum guzzling stupidity. Stop using the excuse that you were too busy sucking off the mailman when you entered the trade.
The CFO selling stock in MVIS is not the reason why the stock has not gone higher. The stock doesn’t give a fuck what you think, neither does management. Go blow a three-legged goat, you asshat RIMM jobber. The stock is a turd because it is a bullshit turd of a stock. Sorry, but I don’t want to waste my time to explaining how it works, you dick licking fucknutter.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:50 pmGap has been wrong on every fucking trade he has made,hence his three legged goats have been blown many times already. Take the blame and stop fucking yourself so hard.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:08 pmGaper,
January 5th, 2008 at 3:36 amHappy New Year. Let’s do shots and bitchslap the barefoot pilgrims over at Rivers next week.
exsqueeze me, but what blog am I at?
Is this the Fly’s blog or am I at Tim’s Rope-a-Dope Slope’n-Hope-I-can-Cope ?
January 5th, 2008 at 6:01 amLung Sac:
I like the RTI and OLN calls (and the ETFs) but I’d be cautious about shorting coal in the middle of the winter, and Huntsman is a “wait and see” too, right now.
Why not concentrate on the higher percentage plays?
January 5th, 2008 at 9:36 amRamboa, my cost basis on MVIS is $3.15 so fuck off, dick. By the way who the fuck are you? Never seen you on this blog in the year and a half I have been coming here.
Neweq: Ofcourse I don’t need to address your comment here, the historical threads speak enough. My wrong trade ofcourse was INAP, which I closed out long ago and I have to say I owned puts on since the day before they reported earnings, Jan 15’s to be exact so my loss/gain was nil. My other mistake was being early on C which I am down about 15% on. I am guessing you don’t want to discuss my very loud call on JCG here do you? Didn’t think so fuck stick.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:41 amPatience Shed. The story is finally coming around on MVIS..at least to the general public.
January 5th, 2008 at 12:02 pmI think Fly’s right…there’ll be another go around on this one later this year. I can see its price for the early part of this year to be boring..but Q4 08 should prove interesting.
gappingandyapping:
January 5th, 2008 at 6:34 pmNever mind the haters. I appreciate you turning me on to BRLC. I started buying when it broke to $3.75 and bought it down to $2.55. It is up almost 6% on a day the NAZ is down 4%. It is currently $3.90. Thanks
Jake,
Would love to, but the obvious ones are played out: ag, financials, heathcare, gold, internationals, solar, tech, dollar, etc. I am looking for the train wreck on the next shoe that drops. It will be those that have held up the best. You know, baby, bath water - all that nonsense. I am keeping an eye on airlines, but I really don’t see anything positive except possible M&A in ‘08. The next obvious is real estate (long) and financials (long), but I need some pretty sturdy fucking nerves to catch that falling knife. I ain’t THAT young anymore. Given that it is the start of the year, would be nice to have a string on ‘08 thories. The most basic of theories that may be the bankable one is to fade any sizeable bounce - across the fucking board. It can’t be that simple - can it?
January 5th, 2008 at 6:48 pmSac –
I’m not saying that those plays won’t be fruitful at some point, just that it might be safer to wait til they actually break down (like GOOG and AAPL are finally breaking down for example).
In the meantime, you can play the busted stocks bearishly just like you played the bullish ones… take profits on a downdraft and wait for a return to resistance and … bango!
The cubes are very primed for that play right now, btw. And they’re quite liquid….
January 5th, 2008 at 8:21 pm[...] mocked me when I warned you to “get ready to die.” Hey, but this blog isn’t about pounding my own chest, while hitting you with a shovel. As you know, it’s about helping poor gaytraders make a [...]
January 21st, 2008 at 3:36 pm