iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,426 Blog Posts

Waiting For a Bounce Can Kill You

Talking with investors, I can tell you, everyone is waiting for a bounce, in order to blow out of their longs.

In theory, waiting for your stocks to trade up, prior to selling them, is a fucking great idea. The only problem: they may not bounce.

Bear markets work like this:

You get into a stock and immediately lose money. Then, on a minor bounce, you almost get back to break even, then BAM: off with your head. Before you know it, the stock is down 30% and you become a long term investor, due to asshattery.

Instead of living out this life of mediocrity, be proactive and blow the fuck out now, instead of waiting around for Mother Market to break your jawbone.

Naturally, we all want to be optimistic and see stocks trade up. However, unfortunately, from time to time, stock markets go lower, effectively wiping out countless hopefuls.

With my money, I am liquidating some stocks in my portfolio’s and buying more inverse ETF’s, specifically [[REW]] and [[FXP]].

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33 comments

  1. calvino

    FXP tasting like candy now, isn’t it Fly? I concur with your wideranging optimism, since I still keep a core of niche microcaps. However, in this shit fuccing time of the Shrub, nothing good will ever work. So I am on the dark side because I must make my way.

    doo doo bidu
    fslr
    crm

    coming in now in big tasty red chunks.

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  2. china bear

    for the pro-FXP crowd here, check out this factoid:

    Look at relative performance of FXI/FXP since FXP’s inception 11/7/07. FXI is down about 3% in that time. So FXP should be up 6%, no? (FXI is 100% China 25 index, FXP is -200% same index). In fact, FXP is down about 7%, and that’s after today’s 7% gain.

    FXP is way underpriced, beaten down by wackos.

    I believe additional real estate loan tightening measures come out in a few weeks, to kick off 2008, the “Year of the Noose”.

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  3. The Fly

    New China telecom switch up, announced last night, gives CHL the short end of the stick.

    CHL is the largest component in FXP.

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  4. MasterDebater

    Without question, the Fly is omniscient and is a Dr. Who visionary of the future in which retail investors are made to look like red-assed monkeys. Viz.

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  5. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Interesting that you like REW more than QID.

    Bigger beta is attractive to you?

    It’s my favorite Greek letter.

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  6. Gallup Poll

    “However, in this shit fuccing time of the Shrub, nothing good will ever work. ”

    — Calvino.

    ______________________

    Poll numbers down big!

    Unfavorables skyrocketing!

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  7. sh

    it.

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  8. The Fly

    REW is more specific.

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  9. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Without question, the Fly is omniscient and is a Dr. Who visionary of the future in which retail investors are made to look like red-assed monkeys. Viz.

    ______________

    Possibly, my child, but if he doesn’t leave six baskets of Concorde Grapes (very large, very black) at my altar, I mix ethanol into his plutonium supplies.

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  10. Juice

    Don’t be going 200% negative here … if you ask me (noone is) we may get a tradable low next week, or so. Not that you can’t lose your shirt & Uggs in a week or two, waiting for the bounce.

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  11. Woodshedder

    Quick, change my headline. My FXP trade is going just as I had planned! LOL

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  12. Woodshedder

    Oh, and how about that CPHD I told you fellows about on Tuesday?

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  13. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Ah! Break out the frankincense!

    News of my minions going about my business, unbeknownst to their own selves.

    More valued than lighting bolts these children are to me!

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  14. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Juice speaks truth.

    Do not get too greedy here, my children. Leave but a taste on the table, in case I decide to “waterfall” the markets on Monday.

    But I’ve never cottoned to avarice, remember.

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  15. Juice

    RIMM is toast … gonna see 85, at least

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  16. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Juice is an attendant minion, and I may even promote him to High Priest after a trial period testing out his goat-gullet slitting abilities.

    But RIMM will go to $82 before weakly attempting a bounce, on it’s way to $66.

    Enjoy your venison cutlets, children.

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  17. Juice

    66 even better !

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  18. Juice

    Beware of fed meddling before option exp next Friday … my guess, if they’re gonna act before the m/e meeting, would be next turdsday.

    according to cresenzi, the bond market is pricing in 100% odds of a 50 bp cut at the next meeting. Don’t think they won’t go early.

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  19. George Costanza

    I am buying more INTC and some FXI. Chinese stocks to the moon Sun. night.

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  20. BOOMER

    Holy homo hammer, Batman!

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  21. BOOMER

    Shed – what are (were) the support prices you are watching on the indexes?

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  22. TraderCaddy

    TradeBots in overdrive.

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  23. Woodshedder

    Boomer-

    I’m not watching any support prices. I’m waiting for capitulation, on gigantic volume.

    If I were to ponder it, I would guess Feb/March lows of 07 would be a good place to start.

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  24. CAP

    Minus 400 on the Dow at this rate maybe 500.

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  25. Woodshedder

    And I’m on 20 minutes delayed quotes…LOL

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  26. GeorgeCostanza

    I am covering my GG for a good gain, selling CWTR for a loss, sell INTC for a small profit, and holding FXI until Mon. I am off to meet Jerry,Puddy, and Kramer at the Soup Nazi and then off to the hockey game.

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  27. TraderCaddy

    Have a good weekend all. I need to meet George Costanza at the Yankees parking lot. We are going to a hockey game.

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  28. gmac

    HA!

    i didnÊ»t have longs in the first place, i lost $$$ on them 2007. my Long is FXP… China can only get hype til the Olympics.

    LVS, DECK, CMG puts… what more can i say…sold AKAM puts

    if i have any bounce to position, itÊ»s AAPLÊ»s MacWorld and thatÊ»s it… an AAPL bounce, no rally…

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  29. Doodee

    Thanks for sharing

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  30. gailionge

    I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting! Look for some my links:

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  31. gailionge

    I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well.

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