European Markets Crashing
I do not mean that in jest. They’re literally crashing. All of the major European markets are off by 6%.
Cheer up. It’s only paper with ugly green faces on it.
UPDATE:
Here is a wrap up of world market trading:
Shanghai: -5.1%
Hang Seng: -5.5%
BSE 30 (India): -7.4%
Nikkei: -3.4%
All Ordinaries: -2.9%
Seoul Composite: -2.95%
DAX: -7.1%
Swiss Market: -5.2%
FTSE: -5.5%
CAC: -6.8%
I can only imagine where U.S. markets will open tomorrow. My guess, barring Fed intervention, we gap lower between 4-5%. If so, my first quarter downside targets will be achieved, forcing me to take profits and GO TO CASH.
Notice how I didn’t mention reversing course and trying to play the upside? See, that’s how rookie traders get housed. Plain and simple, if your bias is bearish, go to cash and wait patiently for another high entry point. There is no need to keep your money invested at all times. Actually, it’s absolutely amateur to think you, or anyone else, can time both sides of the market, at all times. Eventually, you will get shot.
Fuck, I know people who do 5 trades per year, and bank more coin than 90% of the retards who manage hedge funds. But that’s their style, not mine.
My point: we’re not in a bull market. The rules that applied then, during the bull, are invalid today. The game has changed. Either you change with it or get eliminated.
It’s up to you.
do we open 1000 points lower tomorrow?
January 21st, 2008 at 9:45 amIndia down 7.5%, HK down 5.5%.
Will this stop if I say uncle?
Bernanke best not be considering a rate cut to try to shock the markets, if he did, I think he’ll be shown how the markets are going to be ignoring rate cuts as a solution to what’s happening in the economy. If he did and the markets ignored him, I think it might be a good thing so we can all get off this notion that rate cuts are going to solve anything.
January 21st, 2008 at 9:45 amanyone have a website that shows detailed holdings of ETFs?
namely the ones we talk about all the time, SMN, DUG, SKF, FXP
January 21st, 2008 at 9:45 amoh… and who’s the new blogger, tab and all?
January 21st, 2008 at 9:46 amgunners,
I think you can download a .csv from the proshares site itself, click on the “Download Daily Holdings for All Funds (csv)” link on the right:
http://www.proshares.com/funds
January 21st, 2008 at 9:49 amOops!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM
January 21st, 2008 at 9:52 amI’m not even sure how to research this from a daytrading standpoint… I guess there will be sharp rallies amidst the carnage tomorrow. Perhaps coming up with a list of high short interest stocks is best. Or maybe finding stocks that haven’t sold off so hard… maybe they’ll be the ones to bounce if the market washes out and finds buyers eventually.
What are you doing TC? Have any history you can throw at us about how to play a crash?
-DT
January 21st, 2008 at 9:59 amThe worse thing that could happen IMO would be coordinated rate cuts tonight across the globe (the FED is too late). If they do this I think the volatility would be insane for longs and shorts. The market needs to gap down huge with a VIX towards 40 for a meaningful bounce to occur. There are circuit breakers (I hope they work) in place to prevent an ‘87 type crash.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:02 amDT- Having been around for the ‘87 crash,Iraq invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, etc. I know that I won’t be able to pick a bottom. There will be margin calls that will make matters worse. I am going to watch (keep my fingers in my pockets) for the best sectors relative strength wise (lose the least) and start averaging into the appropriate ETF (won’t lose as much, if I am wrong) and only start to nibble when I think the NYSE is going to hell and not come back and I am about to throw up. But, I will be quick to get in and out. Preservation of capital should be number one for shorts and longs.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see homebuilders (acted decent last week), chip equipment cos (not INTC), and regional banks (KRE ETF) do the best damage wise, at least in the beginning.
As always its going to be daytrading and out at the close (too close to retirement from this crap).
What say you?
thanks “wow”
January 21st, 2008 at 10:07 amTC,
But remember February of 07. Did those circuit breakers work? One moment the market was down a little and the next, we were down 500 points.
Tomorrow could be a huge test of the Hybrid market. There will be so much information crossing that what you said on my blog about quotes being off is dead on. The technology will most likely fail.
The circuit breakers just put curbs on program trading, right? But still, if people want out, they’ll eventually get out.
-DT
January 21st, 2008 at 10:11 amAlias BPOE
Take a look at the early 1990s market. That was the last Real Estate collapse. They used a taxpayer funded bailout. I think the only sure thing for now is the vix going higher. Put on your best jock strap and hold on tight it is going to be fun.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:17 amIn Europe, it’s not even necessarily green. The fucktards.
I’m letting it ride.
@ Dino:
My limited recollection has the crash moves being waterfalls, without significant buyable rallies. You should expect in a crash that your trade execution will suck nuts, so get fancy at your own risk. You may be able to buy a “rally” but get a lot of slippage or a “no fill” on your sell.
The 500-point move was an error in the data feed. The $INDU was moving down steadily in real life.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:19 amunbelievable amount of uncertainty around tomorrow. i want to short emerging markets and oil again, but am very nervous about some kind of unexpected relief (emerg fed cut etc). i don’t think it helps things in the end and i still think FXI goes to 100 and dow to 10,000 by June but i don’t want to get my balls squeezed by some short-squeeze rally.
i am considering hedging short positions in fxp, smn, eev and dug by buying xhb (the home builder index) which has been relatively strong. in the event there is an emerg cut, xhb will prob perform best.
does anybody know what time of day the fed typically announces emerg. fed cuts?????? can’t find this anywhere.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:25 amFLY, do you know what time of day emerg fed cuts have historically been announced?
January 21st, 2008 at 10:29 amTypically in the AM, before trade.
However, there have been times when they’ll do it in the afternoon, as a surprise.
However, Bernanke is so gay, he’ll probably do an emergency rate hike instead.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:32 amDT- No DooDahs is correct about the data feed. I will research what the current circuit breaker rules are but I recall they are based upon number of Dow points lost and the time of day. I seem to remember the market closing completely around 3:15 or so in Oct. 1997 during the Asian currency crisis. Its probably an open question on whether they work or not but hopefully it allows for cooler heads (or tradebots today) to prevail (and probably for the FED to cover their ass).
January 21st, 2008 at 10:35 amPreservation of capital is No. 1.
I’m just ticked I hedged my FXP… should’ve covered on Friday.
DECK to $6 will make up for that….
January 21st, 2008 at 10:44 amErr…. I mean, “Having sex with Gisele Bundchen on my deck will make up for that.”
January 21st, 2008 at 10:45 amFly, do you think it’s a good idea to hedge short positions with a long position in XHB since it held up pretty well last week and would prob bounce hard in a rally.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:45 amNo Sex before the Superbowl, Brady you asshat!
January 21st, 2008 at 10:46 amFly
I totally agree with you on a very very cash position right now.Everybody is unplugging, all markets including all commodities will correct, general assets repricing underway.
Cash is King
Let s be prepared for the war after the war.
Gratia ago tibi.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:47 amThanks, guys.
Yeah, I don’t expect perfect fills tomorrow. My only hope is that they work a rate cut in before the open instead of hitting us with it midday. It would be a complete mess if they did it midday… I can’t even imagine how the quotes and data would freak.
-DT
January 21st, 2008 at 10:49 amTony:
Read the above post.
What’s wrong with you, can’t read?
January 21st, 2008 at 10:49 amTony, for crap’s sake. Do you actually read any of the posts or do you just jump right to the comment section?
Keep in mind your answer is being video-taped.
Covertly.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:53 amOh, and Fly?
Your Jets suck.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:54 amSpeaking of a “very very cash position,” if you’re not a devout NY Giant fan, you probably have no idea who I am.
Yet the Giants just gave me $30 million last week, and I had one kick ass game yesterday.
Think they know something the rest of the league has yet to find out?
January 21st, 2008 at 10:56 amWhew, I’m glad the Jets didn’t draft me.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:57 amhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM
A real live trader blowing up today (monday 21st) holding 10 ER2 futures. HPT is his name. He is known for having big swings but this one may take him out for good.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:58 amwho cares what ben does at this point. iʻm leaving a meager position of puts.
January 21st, 2008 at 10:59 amWhat kind of numbers are we looking at tomorrow for
DUG
FXP
SMN
stupid question I know, but shit…
January 21st, 2008 at 11:04 amI bet DUG is not down as much as you’d think.
FXP and SMN are gonna get the hammer, though.
January 21st, 2008 at 11:13 amYeah, and that crackah ass crackah, Tom Brady too!
January 21st, 2008 at 11:14 amwhat the hell are you talking about gintman?
they goin’ up
January 21st, 2008 at 11:21 amSorry, Jeff, I meant “up.”
I’m thinking in “inverse.” “Down” meaning “good.”
I just don’t think DUG will get the boost the others will, because of it’s commodity base.
I don’t think SMN would either, but for the fact that it’s so overvalued right now.
I’m short MOS, btw.
January 21st, 2008 at 11:41 amat this point, i’m skeptical there will be a rally even if the fed has an emergency rate cut. assets are getting repriced….you just can’t stop this shit.
January 21st, 2008 at 11:45 amWrong again Jake:
Oil is tanking now. XOM will become a “source of funds,” enabling DUG to break $50 tomorrow.
Expect 10%+ gain on FXP, SMN, SKF and DUG.
January 21st, 2008 at 11:46 amI expect ~18% on my FXP:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=2095462.NX
January 21st, 2008 at 11:50 amWe’ll see.
Hey, kudos on the new “disgraced Peanuts” tab on the PG. Hilarity.
But you’re still showing “down (negative) futures” in the green (instead of red) up top there, for some reason.
Odd glitch, no?
January 21st, 2008 at 11:51 amAnd by “down futures,” I’m talking specifically about the Dow ones.
January 21st, 2008 at 11:58 amCMO still ok?
January 21st, 2008 at 12:26 pm‘So you think that this market is oversold now, that this bear is long in the tooth. Fuck you. I don’t thinks so.’
- Marty McFly
Jake, I would like to convey a special thought to you. However in anticipation of your weak remonstrations, do take a peek at the Canadian E&P’s and Canroys.
‘Wrong again, Jake.’ - and chant that one like a mantra.
January 21st, 2008 at 12:40 pmYeah, I’m so wrong I’ve been short since Thanksgiving.
(Fuckwit.)
January 21st, 2008 at 1:09 pmJake, are you covering in the morning?
January 21st, 2008 at 1:10 pmAnd now for something completely different:
From Barron’s
————————————————
January 21, 2008, 3:50 am
Update: Microvision Declines Comment on Stock Plunge
Posted by Eric Savitz
Late Friday, Microvision (MVIS) CFO Jeff Wilson told Tech Trader Daily that he can’t comment on the recent dramatic drop in the company’s stock price.
Wilson noted that the company at the recent Consumer Electronics Show unveiled its pico projector technology called “The Show.†He said that “from a business standpoint,†the company “continues to execute†on its business strategy. He said the reception to the CES announcements have been “great.†Wilson noted that CES also featured competitive pico projector technology at CES included Texas Instruments (TXN) and 3M (MMM), among others.
Wilson says Microvision expects OEMs to ship stand-alone pico projectors in 2008, with projectors embedded in other mobile devices in 2009.
Wilson did say that Nasdaq told him there has been “unusually high shorting activity in the stock.â€
Microvision shares have fallen for nine consecutive sessions; in that period the stock has dropped 44%, from $4.50 to $2.54. On Friday, the stock dropped two cents.
January 21st, 2008 at 1:16 pmThere will be some lame, impotent bailout plan announced tomorrow, ask Bilderbug.
I’m still thinking there is a possibility of a tradable low tomorrow. If you’re like Mr McFly, you can book the shorts, go to cash & take a vacay. Or you can see how things develop & if your setup is there, take a swing on the wild side, which would now be long.
I’ve spoken to seasoned pros today, who are shivering in their boots; deers in headlights. I guess they’ve been hanging on a bit too long. Some will puke, some will still hang.
January 21st, 2008 at 1:18 pmBoom,
I will likely take some off the table in fear that “pigs get slaughtered.”
It’s just been too easy, here, recently. And ALL that shit on Drudge this morning (and on every finance site) has gotta have the herd running the wrong way off the cliff.
January 21st, 2008 at 1:31 pmI Got What America Needs Right Here
http://www.theonion.com/content/opinion/i_got_what_america_needs_right
January 21st, 2008 at 2:06 pmI’ve got my parachute pants on. Too bad I don’t have a parachute.
January 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pmWildwestie,
I hope the “unusually high shorting activity” wasn’t Mr. Fly. I doubled down on Friday since I truly believe it’s a great technology with huge upside. But it does appear something bad has leaked into the market. I hope they don’t announce Angelo Mozilo as the new MVIS CEO after his great success at CFC (he did make hundreds of millions of dollars in his stock sales before this meltdown and that huge severance he received for his services).
January 21st, 2008 at 4:42 pm