Late Night Thoughtby The Fly on January 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 pm |
God willing, the market will trade down, significantly, tomorrow.
Developing…
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Wishing for a recession are we?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 pmNo. Armageddon.
Recessions are for pussies.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 pmWhat are your thoughts on DECK right now?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:38 pmi think we are headed significantly lower tomorrow
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 pmThere are three ways in the market… Up, down, and sideways… I say we go sideways… =)
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:56 pmMy Wineiee hurts!
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:14 pmI’m hoping the market opens somewhat up, then dumps mid-day, accelerating into the close. It’s just more cathartic that way.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:21 pmThe Aussie formerly known as HK Bull says… “burn mother fucker, burn!”
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 am^HSI kicking butt. Should be an interesting day for FXP.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:58 amThe Hong Kong market never ceases to amaze me…15% drop in 2 days, followed by an 11% gain. WOW!
Now THAT’s volatility!
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:14 amTold you blokes we know how to party over here!
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:36 amNice day trades for me today, finished just under 12% up for the day and I bet big late yesterday… so the beer is onme again tonight!
Allah akbar
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 amhonk is crazy… i have puts at work on AAPL, MOT, SYNC as well as a few financials and DECK. That is one overpriced stock… but it will take a little longer to come down (hopfully by march).
earnings will rule the market… not the FED. So, thank AAPL for their bearish guidance.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:39 amCash is King
From a blog today
While Soros has a propensity for blunt (albeit well reasoned and argued) views, El-Erian, who has written from time to time in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, prefers a dispassionate presentation. This section of his excellent Financial Times piece, “Fed move seen as insufficient catch-up attempt,” was uncharacteristically forceful. His point is not that the Fed’s actions are late, as some have suggested, but that they are destined to be ineffective, since they will only drive liquidity to segments of the market that don’t need any more. The only remedy is a further, and not inconsiderable, fall in asset prices:
….investors now understand better what interest rates and credit markets have been signalling for a while: that the continuing damage to the financial system is being embedded more deeply into the chain of economic relationships, increasing the overall default risk in the economy.
The recent troubles of the bond insurers serve only to reinforce the image of falling dominoes now that the major banks have taken important write-offs.
As long as this market mentality persists, the fresh capital currently on the sideline will only engage forcefully and sustainably in risk markets if valuations become excessively cheap.
Meanwhile, the Fed will be restoring liquidity to the parts of the system that are closest to it, accentuating the divergence that we have witnessed recently between a normalising interbank market (highlighted by the moves in the London inter-bank offered rate) and unstable and volatile credit and equity markets.
In this context, and in the absence of belief that a meaningful fiscal response will accompany the monetary policy loosening, valuations of stocks and other assets rather than corrective government actions will act as the main driving factor in “clearing†markets to enable them to stabilize and function smoothly again.
Prices will have to get low enough to skew the balance of risk significantly to the advantage of new investors to tempt them in. Otherwise, they will simply wait on the sidelines.
Recent developments will also accentuate the divergence between transparent segments of the markets and structured finance, where there are still fundamental concerns about methods of valuation. Liquidity and cash will remain king.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:27 amI too was hoping for more blood letting. We have jobless claims numbers on thurs. with durable goods,employment numbers and another fomc meeting next week.
looking at 5 year charts of foriegn index. Priced for perfection!..
we trade sideways until Q4 nubers are out.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:28 amEurope is selling off.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:11 amSWC broke August “support” yesterday…
-DT
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:42 amBernanke noticing stocks trading down this morning. He was long e-minis into last night and with the futes down on them he is about to helicopter in and cut 50 bips.
Steve Jobs also dispatched his Minions to remind him to cut because AAPL is tanking.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:27 amAllah Akbar!!!
Long Live Fly the Bearshitter!
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:28 amIs QID trading up 8% from yesterday’s close in the premarket, or do I need more coffee?
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:39 amI can’t believe FXP is up this much in the premarket. i sold at the close because i thought that Asia would bounce huge today. well asia bounced huge and FXP is up huge. am i missing some type of relationship between china and short china?
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:42 amYes, up from yesterdays close. I noticed AAPL did not tank with this latest pre-market downleg of NASDAQ futures. Also, see some chips like MU doing okay-INTC may rebound. Rails and airlines doing okay. Just saying and watching everything. Bulls are scared and Bears think they are the next Warren Buffet. Usually a ST sign.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:45 amStrength in the Yen seems to be a big problem for US equities.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:01 amI hear a lot of investors complaining about how their retirement funds are taking hits. I say they’re nuts because the market ran too much last year and now the markets are correcting so stocks can become attractive for an investor. Hello dumb investor, you don’t plan on selling for at least 30 years so you should love being able to buy stocks a to discount in the future.
For traders, you got to love volatility that creates opportunity to make money.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:04 amIt’s the POS hedges that run gunslinging operations unwinding the carry trade? A higher tax rate and more (some) regulation should bring in those Greenwich, CT yuppie MOF’rs.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:04 amGeorge Soros, head is a giant zit.
Europe is selling off hard.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aufqsZMpm2I4&refer=home
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:05 amHave any of you seen this?
Santelli rips Cramer..
ouch…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:24 amI wouldn’t be surprised if Carl Ichan shows up in the Board room of MOT today with an uzi and tells all of them to get out real fast.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 amPut this up on the PG.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 amINTC buying coming in.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:41 amcheesefried,
Thx for the post. I am completely amazed that those irresponsible fucks at CNBC keep those pricks on the air. Today, Joe Dipship Kernan says that AAPL disapoints with their recent earnings. When their guest host corrects him and says that their earnings were good, Kernan says that their market cap is too fucking high. What does that have to do with his earnings comment? Nothing. Bastards all have their hidden agenda thereby eliminating them all as objective journalists. When the fuck and I going to get Fox business? I’m not even long and I’m bitter.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:59 amMy Bichon Frise just crapped in my stock broker neighbor’s yard.
We go LOWER
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:06 amHD and LOW continue to kick-ass.
ADI showing good relative strength in its recent basing action.
Market showing strength in face of shit news cycle.
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:10 amStrength in the Yen seems to be a big problem for US equities.
Um… well…. YEAH!
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:21 amHousing related seems to be bouncing … even WHR! Does anyone believe consumer durables will prosper in this economy?? WTF! Must be traders at GS squeezing shorts ….
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:38 am