Since When Do You Need Armaggedon to Have a Bear Market?
Seriously, I’m not etching any of my predictions in stone. Should the economic data change, I will adjust my position. However, a certain tv personality is getting on my fucking nerves with grandiose calls of a “market bottom,” just because the Fed is cutting rates.
WTF?
First of all, he needs to quit comparing this environment to 1990. It’s not the same. The losses are much greater.
Secondly, will someone inform him that corporate profits dictate the direction of the market, not the lack of “Armageddon” in our nation’s financial system?
Thanks.
I mean, just because [[WM]] and [[C]] may stick around for the next 10 years doesn’t mean their stock prices will go up.
More craziness.
Despite the rates cuts, credit is tight. In addition to that, our consumer based economy is tapped the fuck out. Don’t believe me, take a look at the companies who do big business in the U.S. Then, look at their stock prices. Not too pretty, is it?
Suggesting stock prices can keep marching higher, because China and India are growing fast is inane. At some point, the world’s largest economy has to count. Keep on thinking it’s ok to deplete the economy of high paying manufacturing jobs, in exchange for service crap; see where it gets you.
Bottom line: After the 2000 blow-up, it took almost 3 years for the market to bottom, despite Greenspan dropping rates to a shocking 1%. Don’t listen to coked out asshats who declare market bottoms, following two tough weeks of declines. Instead, listen to anonymous bloggers, who claim to have access to time machines, and other types of “space alien magician” technologies.
Boo-Yah!
NOTE: Before calling a bottom, watch this clip. Hat tip GreenWriter.
yes
what is the target for SKF, 225?
January 30th, 2008 at 8:54 pmFly- I believe the comparison to the 1990 slowdown with the Savings and Loan, Gulf War/Energy problem might be more comparable. The problem with the 2000 comparison is that stocks were way overvalued while I don’t believe valuations are similar today especially when looking at the so called FED model (i.e. short term rates).
January 30th, 2008 at 9:00 pmI recall the Savings and Loan losses being huge which brought about The Resolution Trust Corp. C had billions of writeoffs like today with the stock eventually trading at about $5.00 (as I recall).
Fly,
Hey, after reading Ragin’s post in the PG about your romantic interlude together in the “time machine,” I came up with a great business idea.
Rent the fucker out for weddings and shit. People could pull up to the church in a time machine. Totally beats the whole horse and carriage shtick.
-DT
January 30th, 2008 at 9:06 pmthe current era is prob more comparable to the S&L crisis in the early 80s
January 30th, 2008 at 9:06 pmThis era is not comparable to anything. It is unique.
There are no cookie cutter approaches to this market.
That’s his fallacy.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:09 pmCramer has become kind of a scary dude. I used to love to watch his show when it first came on- thought the guy was funny and sharp. But the last year or so it has really become unwatchable. Same shit every night. Those buzzers and the book and all that shit are getting pretty tired.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:13 pmWhen you basically make calls about everything, you can always claim you were right. It’s been an amazing (almost) 2 months since I came back to this… talk about the tale of two markets, before xmas, I too was having Solar Fun… I am stunned how quickly reality is catching up with the markets and people.
And I agree with ya Fly, this is something new, throw all the rules away… I will say this, don’t pay much attention to job numbers right now… it means jack… we left the last recession with a jobless recovery, we’re going to crash with (at first) a relatively job-ful economy.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:24 pmGarmin Phone
A buddy of mine works for Garmin told me about this tonight. Funny 6 months ago this news would probably give them 10%-15% jump.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:38 pmFly, I agree with the SKF trade and hold a relatively small position (13% of net worth). The size of your position indicates extreme confidence that the financials will get whacked. how did you get comfortable with “bailout risk”? i want to increase my size but think there is a possibility that the monolines get bailed out, being that this is the United States of Socialist America.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:47 pmBernanke seems desperate. Greenspan used to drive you nuts doing nothing for months. But it made you think things were okay. Bernanke is more responsive but it’s scarey when he makes these wild swings.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:53 pmSkiffles! They’re nutritious!
Skiffles! It’s propitious…
When you
…….. deign too
…………….. wack the
……………………. baaaaaaaannnkkkksss!!
January 30th, 2008 at 10:05 pmAye buy RBS iff’n aye’m buyin’ bahhnks, laddie!
‘Cause effin’ it’s nooot Scottish, etts craaaaahhp!
January 30th, 2008 at 10:10 pmeven in my current state of ‘personal liquidity’ brought on by a snifter of small batch bourbon, it takes only the minimal common sense to see this isn’t the bottom. the situation is unique and not remotely comparable to ‘90, but when people lack the capacity for original thought they’ll pull theories and ridiculous comparisons out of their ass at will. this really isn’t that hard to read unless you are in total denial. the financials are fucked and the consumer will be moving slower than a molasses disaster this year. Warnings are abundant in practically every earnings report. Some of that may get ‘priced in’ but when the actual numbers come out in the next few quarters, it won’t be inspiring. Going long will be the equivalent of using a loaded shotgun for a dildo… there may be moments of pure pleasure, but in all the confusion, who knows what will jar the trigger. Select stock picking, and short term plays based on the wonders of human stupidity. my plan in ‘08.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:14 pmI could elaborate but I won’t. Shit, fan, hit.
What heppens when 99.3% of the overall float is short and the entire country is bankrupt?
Answer: only bush, bernanke and greenspan can cover their shares.
FUCK ME -OUT!
January 30th, 2008 at 10:15 pmComparing the current three pronged unprecedented derivative crisis to the early 80s or 90s shows no understanding whatsoever of what is currently going on or what lies ahead. I have tried to explain some of this in detail over the past couple years but sheeple will always tend to think according to the path of least resistance. 99 out of 100 people on this planet are incapable of using their brain and deducing to something of logical reason.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:46 pmCramer is such a tool!
Case & point
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=631295270
“I am bullish…I am bullish”. Thanks JIMBO!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 10:49 pmI agree this is different from the S&L’s… For one thing the S&L bust out lasted a few years.
For another those loans were not as complicated as today. True they flipped land and competed for overnight deposits, via CD’s and the US Indian trust fund. The FDIC increasing the deposit insurance to 100k from 75K exasperated the problem further.
You could start an S&L with as little as 2 million bucks. Cash, land or a diamond ring. The collateral mattered not. Hell your criminal back ground check wasn’t even done. They rubber stamped most of the applications.
Further those loans were held mostly by the banks. When the debt got so large one would transfer all the bad loans to one bank and “bust it out”
These days it’s more complicated. Back then you could have a team of accountants sift through the records of any one bank, not an easy task then. Hence the reason only three people went to prison.
The amount and complexity of the derivatives sold today would certainly confuse any government investigator.
Bottom line we are in uncharted waters. Personally I think we have the perfect storm. Tapped out consumer, tapped out banks and growth at all costs.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:51 pmMBI just released their #s. Smoke & Mirrors.. The below is comical. Mark to Market my ass!
Book Value and Adjusted Book Value
MBIA’s book value per share at December 31, 2007 decreased to $29.11 from $53.43 at December 31, 2006, which includes a $19.24 impact from the third and fourth quarters’ mark-to-market from the Company’s structured credit derivatives portfolio. Adjusted book value (“ABVâ€) per share at December 31, 2007 declined 20 percent to $60.31 from $75.72 at December 31, 2006. ABV is a non-GAAP measure (which is defined in the attached Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures).
January 30th, 2008 at 11:00 pmI’m planning on signing up for Worden Telechart.
I would appreciate what anyone who is a user of this software, thinks of the product, as opposed to comparable software available.
What level of Worden is recommended for an active trader, i.e. Telechart Gold, Telechart Platinum, etc.
Thanks in advance.
By the way, I really enjoy this site.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:18 pmSince when do you need a bear market?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:31 amDidn’t I see that bank reserves graph on Mike Shedlock’s blog already? If you got it here first, from reading the fed report, then my respect for you goes way up. If you just lifted that off MS’s site, then give credit where it’s due.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:39 amAnyone know why the huge beating of HANS today?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:49 amPotential law change in Cali that will prohibit minors from buying energy drinks.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:24 amIt will never pass with Arnold the X-roidster Hansennegger, ruling as the Governator.
He has bigger fish to fry.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:36 amWe’re calling bottoms?
Oki Doki .. here ya go - next week, midweek, say wednesday-ish, will be a very good capitulation low, very tradable to the long side
Be a bear till then.
Mark my words.
Now, go fuck off.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:41 amSell the banks
Financial speculator and billionaire, George Soros states in his FT.com commentary: “the current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.†In June’s Higher Rates Reflect Default Risk we described the end of the last credit boom:
In 1928, the U.S. Treasury Bond similarly broke out of the channel and rose to a higher yield. This coincided with the end of ‘easy’ money which forced the deleveraging of the economy and concluded with the financial crisis of 1929-1932.
George Soros explains what happens next:
If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.
we expect 10 year Treasury Bonds to be sold for cash in the panic, just as occurred at the end of the last credit cycle. Billionaire investor Julian Robertson agrees. As he revealed to Fortune, the biggest bet that Robertson has in his own portfolio at the moment†is “long the price of two-year Treasury and short the price of the ten-year Treasury.”
January 31st, 2008 at 4:20 amI have posted before that if this time is comparable to any other, it is 1974 and 1929. Those two times witnessed and sudden and sharp contraction by an immediate liquidation in assets to meet regulatory net worth requirements cause by and extraneous event.
In 1974 it was the collapse of some major national banks caused by foreign currency transaction…in 1929 it was the Smoot-Hawley tariff bill.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:25 amibankcoin.com is the shizznit!!!!!!
Although, the FLY is a low tier. never work on wall street wanna be that never was.
his gay time machine is for fags.
get a life pickle sniffer.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:36 amNouriel Roubini today
Stock Market to the Fed: “It’s Insolvency, not Just Illiquidity, Stupid! and the Systemic Financial Meltdown Risk from the Monolines’ Crisis
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/241162
January 31st, 2008 at 5:02 amAt the end, when the Fox guy said Boo-ya, fucking hilarious tube puffer.
January 31st, 2008 at 6:13 amW and Arnold go to helicopter plant to arrange the cash drop
January 31st, 2008 at 7:09 amSkiffles are good in the morning
Skiffles are good in the night
If you bot yesterday at $96,
Your portfolio’s sunny and bright!
January 31st, 2008 at 7:36 amWhat is it you children say on your cathode ray tube devices?
Ba Ba Ba Boooo yaaaaah??
January 31st, 2008 at 7:37 amIf the nickname for SKF is “skiffles”, what’s your nickname for SMN?
January 31st, 2008 at 7:42 amWhy, “Salty Seaman,” of course.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:45 amjust bought
1k- goog
January 31st, 2008 at 7:46 am3k- aapl
1ok- qqqq
Chivas:
“Ahm sahhrry fo yo loss”
January 31st, 2008 at 8:02 amSo Eric “Oil Barrel” Bolling is appearing on Fox Business Channel now?
January 31st, 2008 at 8:43 am