Fucktards Like Rate Cutsby The Fly on January 31st, 2008 at 7:57 am |
Unfortunately, the market is run by a bunch of pussies, unable to take losses like men. Back in the old days, investors took “hits” like champs. They’d come to work, lose 30% of their money in a fucking crash, then proceed to jump out their office window.
Not today.
Today, we have a bunch of jelly sandwich fuckers, always in need of bandaid solutions. If it’s not a stimulus package, it’s a Fed rate cut. Quite frankly, if I were President, I’d tell investors to “go fuck themselves,” and live life like the “greatest generation.” As you know, I’m talking about the true “playa’s” who endured 1929.
The Fed funds rate is at 3%, yet the bond market is pricing in another 50 bps cut. What the fuck? Do these idiots learn from past mistakes?
Answer: Of course not.
They are going to kill us all, with their insatiable demand for cheap or “near free” money. If the Fed cuts rates again, I will clean out my personal savings and put it all in gold. Fuck this paper currency crap. Better yet, “The Fly” will move to China and own yuan.
As for today’s trading:
I’m long a considerable amount of inverse etf’s, almost fully invested. Yesterday, I bought (SKF: 118.90 0.00%), (EFU: 113.13 0.00%), (SMN: 42.33 0.00%), (DUG: 39.81 0.00%), (REW: 70.80 0.00%), (FXP: 100.01 0.00%) and I shorted a little more (LEH: 15.17 0.00%). Pardon me for not mentioning them in my retarded “Fly Buy” posts; I was quite busy.
Looking at the banks, I’m shocked they’re not lower—considering how bad MBI’s numbers were. Without doubt, low-IQ fund managers are piling into bank stocks, like stock robots. All these idiots do is rely on their stupid models that say “buy bank stocks when the Fed cuts rates,” regardless of the news. They’ll buy these same stocks, everyday, for the next six months, even if the world is on fire.
They’re that committed to their “models.”
Finally, with my money, I will not go long anything. I do not like the risk/reward of being long, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls data. If anything, I’ll sell short the banks again, via SKF.
amzn doing an unnannounced buyback with your money, wouldn’t want to take anything away from Jeff, at your expense. That bullshit move will end.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:05 am“then proceed to jump out their office window”
http://www.downside.com/bldgjump.gif
January 31st, 2008 at 8:10 amLife was tough in them days!
You forgot to mention the bears who’d get skinned for 30% in a day in a rampant bear market.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:14 amWow, this market is seriously bulletproof. Sometimes I cant believe what I am seeing. With all the bad news that has come out this market is still trading like its last year. Truly amazing.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:14 amMA margin improved from five plus to sixteen. How the fucc did that happen when the credit jerk offs are getting put in the penalty zone with 29 percent rates, forty dollar late fees, fifty dollar overcharge fees. yea, that will last - wait til these end zone losers tell the banks to go fuckle themselves and their balance. ma setting up back to highs and into short territory. McFly is right - these fuckfaces think the shitparade will keep running up the pipe like bizniz as usual. stockfucks clinging ontobonuses at your and mine expense.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:17 ambeware of the morning bear trap … they will make you puke those shorts you laid out there on the open sometime this afternoon, before the next decline
January 31st, 2008 at 8:20 am75% of this game is understanding how market particpates will act at different points in the cycle and then front running the fuckers in anticipation of their actions. You correctly understand that at this point in the cycle banks will be bought. Yet you are fighting it. Odd.
Maybe this time it’s different, but I doubt it.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:23 amActually it looks more like a bull trap than a bear trap this morning.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:24 amFor you caffeine lovers, from notablecalls:
Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS): Coke sniffing around? - UBS
I hear UBS analyst believes KO has been “sniffing around” Hansen Natural (NASAQ:HANS) and that an acquisition by KO would be a no brainer as it would save $500M in manufacturing immediately. The analyst believes a potential sale is more likely in the $80-$100 range rather than lower speculation of $60. The firm views recent weakness as a buying opportunity.
Notablecalls: Makes me say hmmm…. This one will get attention today! Bold call by UBS!
PS: I now hear the takeover comments were made on the box and are not included in the actual note. (although the note highlights HANS as a takeover tgt).
January 31st, 2008 at 8:26 amThe cycle has not even begun.
It’s silly to “discount” a recession that hasn’t even started.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:26 amDId I ever mention I hate LEH?
January 31st, 2008 at 8:27 amPud — You don’t “buy banks” before their credit problems are fully washed.
Do a little history search on upticks in bank failures. We haven’t even been seeing many yet.
Banks will follow the path of the homies… ie — pallid struggles to claw back some lost ground and “waboom!”
Homies started that about three years back, they are still not in the clear.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:29 amRaider.. did you work for the Brothers?
January 31st, 2008 at 8:38 amIn them old days after ‘29, my buddies and I used to go down to the office of our “customers man” and commiserate about all our stocks. We didn’t have IBC, we had slips of paper and pencils.
Times were tough. Fear and despair were rampant. We needed someone to throw our bowls of soup at, but trader/servants were in short supply.
My fear is we might have a repeat of them days. We had Hoover back then. Now we have Bush, Bernanke and more assclowns than you can shake a cane at. God help us.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:38 amNo calvino I am just short them right now and they trade like a waddling crack whore if you’ve ever traded a waddling crack whore before that is.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:46 amThe recession started last summer, obviously.
Unless of course, you don’t eat or use oil products. Then, in that fantasy world of governments supplied/fudged for state agendas/purposes, stats, there is no recession.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:48 amGrouchy– your memory doesn’t serve you.
Hoover raised taxes and import barriers through Smoot Hawley. Combine that with the “chicken in every pot” socialist that followed him up and we got the Great Depression.
Bush cut taxes and is a free trade advocate.
You must be talking about the future, if we elect an asshat commie Democrat.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:49 amJohnny, “they” sell banks when the yield curve is flat or inverted. They buy banks when the curve is positively sloped and steep.
The curve hasn’t been this steep since 2002-03. Good luck fighting the herd.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:50 amPud –
Bank reserves haven’t been this impaired since 1990, or maybe before even that…
The slope of the curve is immaterial if the banks cannot lend at any rate.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:53 amMarketRaider > Wow, this market is seriously bulletproof. Sometimes I cant believe what I am seeing. With all the bad news that has come out this market is still trading like its last year. Truly amazing. <
Are you serious! Everyday a few stocks get their heads lopped off. You must be drinking the Kool-Aid rather than the Monster to be so hypnotized!
BHI the other day, CAM & ARAY today and I’m sure there are others …. while you are mesmorized by ETFs, Rome is burning!
January 31st, 2008 at 8:54 amfed day pattern - told ya!
January 31st, 2008 at 8:58 amForget about how you think the market should trade. Just watch price action. If the stock goes up in the face of bad news then it has been discounted. Don’t think too much. Trade what you see not what you believe.
January 31st, 2008 at 9:01 ampud and tradercaddy,
both spot on
January 31st, 2008 at 9:08 amKO to buy HANS?
JSDA rally on that news?
BWLD also looks interesting here.
(Am I having a Costanza moment?)
January 31st, 2008 at 9:08 amugly shoes green, not for long
January 31st, 2008 at 9:12 amBear trap sprung
this will be nothing … wait till next week
bears will dine in hell
but before then bulls will dine in hell
welcome to the machine
January 31st, 2008 at 9:23 amJake: I’m not saying “they’re” right for buying when the curve steepens and that they won’t change their mind later.
I just know that when the curve gets as steep as it is now, the initial reaction by stockjockeys is to buy banks first and ask questions later.
Just look at the price/volume on BAC, WB, WFC, USB, since the surprise 75 basis point cut. That they’ve been buying the banks with both hands since the 75bp cut in the face of the potential for many billions more in impairments/writedowns if the monolines go busto should be proof enough.
(As a side note, that they’re buying banks with that overhang suggests to me the big swinging dicks believe if the monolines do explode, Uncle Sam will backstop them).
January 31st, 2008 at 9:30 amSo its the MBIA conference call and now the possibility of not downgrading them is what’s causing all this craziness? Unbelievable.
January 31st, 2008 at 9:42 amUNCLE SAM will and has to imo
January 31st, 2008 at 9:46 amPud
Good comment. Institutional buyers and mutual funds, tend to be longer term in scope and are seeing banks as “bargains”, looking down the road. We are seeing early buyers who are value players coming into the market. It’s hard for them to walk away from these stocks right now.
They are not as nimble as we are and sometimes need to take several days or even weeks to scale into a position.
Once all the write-offs are done, the comps will look decent. The question is, how long do the sub-prime write offs go on? Some must be thinking not much longer.
I’m still staying away, but it is interesting to watch.
January 31st, 2008 at 9:52 amalphadawgg,
a better question might be is not how long they will go on, but how much they might end up re-couping some of those writedowns.
January 31st, 2008 at 9:57 amfed day pattern!!!!@ I told you!!!
January 31st, 2008 at 9:57 amThere is no way the fly is fully invested and holding inverse ETFs through this. Either he lies, or he is banking coin for wall street bankers.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:03 amI am going to put a claim in for Daytraders Carpel Tunnel Syndrome.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:07 amGreagory,
He is fully invested in reverse ETFs AND goes for a walk during reversal day? Yeah - rather suspect.
In the mean time, I am banking my coin via UWM and ROM from yesterday. Will be looking to add more today if we hold when the boys get back from lunch.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:09 amchivas
windfall profits are certainly a big consideration.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:09 amhttp://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/200801310036DOWJONESDJONLINE000019_univ.xml
“The next shoe to drop could come in late February when insurance companies have to ‘fess up on their portfolio holdings. It’s unlikely to improve their stock prices and safety ratings. Two ways to diversify and profit from any unsettling financial-services news ahead: Sell iShares Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund (IAK) short, or buy the double-beta inverse ETF ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF (SKF).”
http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/200801080051DOWJONESDJONLINE000026_univ.xml
The best foreign stock opportunities after the coming correction could be where you found them last year — in Asia and Latin America. Among the standout funds for 2007, nearly all invest in Latin America or Asia, or a combination of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC).
Top-performing Latin American funds in 2007 included Direxion Latin American 2X (DXZLX), which rose 83.7% for the year, and iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) up almost 75%. Top China funds included AIM China (AACFX), up 75%, and Nationwide China Opportunity (GOPAX), up 74%.
A BRIC index fund, Claymore BNY/BRIC (EEB) also made the list, rising almost 68%. Don’t overlook Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX), which added about 84% last year, or iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP), which gained 72%. <<
January 31st, 2008 at 10:16 amAnon,
So, are you loading up now, willing to take the pain and holding for 2-3 months? What is your investment/trading style?
January 31st, 2008 at 10:26 amBuying SKF on pullbacks. When we get the final leg down which I expect to bottom sometime in Apr/May then I will buy the BRICS and select financials like JPM/WB/AIG that haven’t been diluted with foreign currency.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:33 amshorts are almost done covering, giddy up for next leg down boys
January 31st, 2008 at 10:34 amAnonymous
Thx.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:36 amBrazil right back to the honey hole again at $74.50
January 31st, 2008 at 10:38 amJake,
do you have the investors intelligence #’s by any chance?
thanks
January 31st, 2008 at 10:44 amAlvari,
Note that I corrected prior statement to read “that haven’t been diluted with foreign currency” rather than “that have” … my regrets.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:49 amasia didnt follow yesterday s final hour selloff .. it dazzeled me a bit, therefore i didnt go short today ..
January 31st, 2008 at 10:49 amFade the rally. Buy skf
January 31st, 2008 at 10:56 amNumbers to watch
Dow - 12681
S&P - 1386
Nasdaq - 2408
If we close above these numbers its time to go long. This could be a countertrend bear market rally but who knows how far it can go. My bet is the big boys come back after lunch and push this up further.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:11 amFuck yes!
These guys are a bunch of pussies. The inflation rate is only going to keep on a steady rise because of this crap.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:19 amChivas… as of yesterday, 40.2%, bullish, 32.2% bearish…
January 31st, 2008 at 12:06 pm200 point up day today.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:09 pmpiker bears getting their clocks cleaned
just in case you didn’t think the market could go up any more
the meat of the bear trade has been had, for a little while, barring another bear trap or two
bulls will have a stampede & trample day within a week … stay short at your financial peril
January 31st, 2008 at 12:25 pmanybody buy into the potential for major short covering of derivatives by the end of the day as it is the 31st?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:28 pmThe market is gorging itself on BWLD.
Bot some at 24.72, shortly after my “Costanza moment”.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:31 pmFly pauses in his “walk,” for some “side-fun.”
January 31st, 2008 at 12:32 pmBruce,
You sure you don’t mean “baby” bears?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:32 pmHave you become one of those old men you used to kick down elevator shafts?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:36 pmResistance at 12600 Dow. We break it and we’re off to the races.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:44 pmnewby, piker, baby, bears w training wheels
all the same
the bear trade is done, and this will cause a stampede to cover & get long, if not tomorrow, then next week
if there is one more downtrade, take your shorts off the table & go to cash, if not go long
the bears will have another trade before all is said & done but don’t overstay your welcome on the downside
January 31st, 2008 at 1:00 pmSorry, just noticed that the above link doesn’t work. Here’s Fly’s attempts to imitate Lawrence Tynes at the expense of his neighbors.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:01 pmJake,
thank you very much
January 31st, 2008 at 1:01 pmhow was there such strong buying ahead of the jobs number tomorrow? if the number is bad, we’ll open down 300-400 pts. do the BSDs know the number will be good? doesn’t make sense why anybody would be buying ahead of an unpredictable figure, unless you’re a long-term buyer of course.
January 31st, 2008 at 5:24 pm