Setting Up For a Flush
Throughout the day, I made a variety of changes. I significantly pared back my short positions in [[LEH]] and [[DECK]], while bulking up on [[REW]], [[SMN]], [[SRS]] and [[DUG]]. Also, it’s worth noting, I sold a few thousand shares, very quietly, of [[SKF]]—near the highs of the day.
Chinese related stocks sprinted higher, as did select retail— like [[M]], [[GME]] and [[ZUMZ]].
For the most part, “The Fly” is extremely bearish on the markets, but will take his time averaging into selective inverse ETF’s. The key to building a winning position, is to avoid going “all in” at once. Instead, buy or sell in 10% increments. Meaning: if you are interested in buying 100k worth of SRS, buy 10k at a time.
Trust me, it will give you peace of mind and allow you to manage your bullshit trading accounts like a pro.
Early next week, I expect the financials will remain steady, with tech leading the way down. Short term, I will be focusing my efforts on “hitting” big tech, while trying my best to “machine gun” commercial real estate stocks, via buying SRS.
Finally, it’s worth noting, good ol’ [[HANS]] spiked today. While I’m a big fan of their products, I do believe their recent price hikes (per case) is related to higher transportation and raw material costs. I could be wrong; but I’d avoid buying the stock above $40.
Good advice.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:16 pmA pro, this fly is.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:19 pmfuck yeah, it’s a bears market.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:20 pmexcellent fucking advice.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:30 pmthe best advice ever offered in the history of finance. It will be printed in text books for centuries.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:32 pmLast week I only had $145.22 in my bullshit E*TRADE account. Then I followed Fly’s advice, and now I run with a 9-figure net liq.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:41 pmWith all the money I made, I’m going to buy Norway and rename it FLYBURG, in his honor.
Thanks, The Fly!
Your grandchildren will be reading the tale of Fly vs. The Stock Trading Robot.
It will appear in a collection of American folk tales, right after the story of John Henry vs. the steam drill.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:48 pmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Henry_(folklore)
Co-sign, however we’ll see. You might be hearing
I Changed My Mind
February 15th, 2008 at 2:49 pmActually the best advice in financial history came in 1927(I think) when Jesse Livermore said: ” There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”
Fly has some good advice also so perhaps he should write a book and title it Reminiscenes of an Internet Stock Operator.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:51 pmOnly donkey’s set up for flushes…just to let you know…
February 15th, 2008 at 2:55 pmInteresting situation in the financials.
On the one hand, there isn’t a speck of good news out there on the sector, which would ordinarily mean that it was a good time to buy.
On the other hand, indications are that the news is going to get worse from here, with every apparent resolution of a crisis (billionaire to invest in bond insurer - bald men go crazy on TV!) or move to help the financials (Fed drops rates like a hooker’s hotpants - bald men go crazy on TV!) having next to no impact on the real problem, which is that foolish lending practices produced massive amounts of debt secured by highly overpriced assets.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/R7XG0mjX_XI/AAAAAAAABms/No1Ej6Ys2nY/s1600-h/DSLJan2008.jpg
The debt turd is swirling around, and the markets declare an end to the crisis every time it bobs past (turd still floating - bald men go crazy on TV!). The damn thing is going down, and nothing can stop it.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:02 pmBuy PAL and SWC. I am getting RICH!
So what do you lose on these days, the FLY? Still not interested in making some good money?
PAL and SWC both up more than 10% today. My WHOLE portfolio is up 35% for the day, not counting my gain in my 401K yet.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pmConfusing few days for the most part. If you look at the S&P and Nasdaq, both are setting up triangle patterns. Usually, those pattern resolve themselves in the same direction as the overall trend. I just hope we get some resolution here soon.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:32 pmAngel eyes…good av for Gunners.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:57 pmChose it myself alpha. love the old westerns. big classic movie fan. i plan to mention movies some in my blog.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:14 pm…….hmmmm…..sounds like “Fly”, on this Friday, prepared himself with a massage, a cleansing enema, perhaps a ten mile run…and……took the Time Machine for a spin to make sure it is OK….and is ready for next week……
February 15th, 2008 at 4:22 pmHANS is a buy on technicals. Probably KO rumors behind the pop. I think it could run to 45 pretty quickly but we see soon enough.
Good advice on pacing ones positions.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:36 pmGunners,
unfortunately, you lost the Mexican standoff.
You might want to consider morphing to “Blondie”.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:49 pmLackluster trading tody….came away with some decent losses despite two of the three major indexes being in the red. Added early on to some shorts only to be bent over and given the treatment. Rule numero uno is to take positions incrementally, so I will look to add a little more on the short side come Martes or Tuesday for those of you who don’t speak Espanol. Speaking of Spanish, I plan on building a border wall with one crossing(that goes through me) that blocks the bulls from putting their buy orders though to their lame-ass brokerages….effectively, rendering them impotent. Have a good weekend, all!
February 15th, 2008 at 4:49 pmHey Fly, GBT is going to the Nasdaq, they just announced it today. It would behoove you to get on board before $10. You’re welcome. Danny.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:40 pm^Greek, not to be a dick, but you have archives going back to Jan 2005 with a grand total of 791 hits…what are you doing wrong?
Maybe it is posting your posts in the comments section of a popular blog.
I assume this criticism will draw much needed traffic to your 47th tier more so than mexican walls or impotent broker rants.
Thanks not necessary.
Oh and the commenter above me is another Danny, probably of ill repute. I suggest you pick a different name.
PS: GBT, ABAT, whatever it is, where ever it lists, is a homo stock. No offense, just a fair warning.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:45 pmI agree with Ottnott, this market is one of those recalcitrant floating turds that won’t go down. Ya flush twice cuz you’ve seen em before and then go have some lunch. Come back for a piss a few hours later and the damn thing is still there. Outta be a name for that kinda behavior. Checking wikipedia…
February 15th, 2008 at 5:49 pmHahaha….Danny, my blog is lame. I have no rebuttal to that point. I apologize. It’s been an on and off again endeavor of mine…..at best. Have a good weekend!
February 15th, 2008 at 5:52 pmI dunno, recalcitrant was a pretty good word to describe that “shit” imo
February 15th, 2008 at 5:53 pmYou are correct, Danny. Hasta luego!
February 15th, 2008 at 5:56 pmGP, I kid, I kid
February 15th, 2008 at 6:38 pmAdded early on to some shorts only to be bent over and given the treatment.
File under “Sentences not to be written whilst posting under the name ‘Greekpunk.’“
February 15th, 2008 at 6:53 pmJake, how’d that JPM treat the ole ballsack today….
February 15th, 2008 at 6:57 pmDanny -
agree, I looked the word up special, and shit. but what I meant was…
outta be a name for that phenomenon… maybe it will go down as the “recalcitrant turd phenom”. It’s one of those great equalizers in life. Even the 1%ers suffer thru the recalcitrant floater phenom, much the chagrin of their sig others and friends who are next in line.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:06 pmApparently, there are two kinds of investors - those investing to make money, and those who like their money to go up in flames, but don’t want to smell like smoke.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Ambac Financial Chief Executive Michael Callen told CNBC on Friday that the bond insurer is considering splitting into two separate businesses “as an alternative.” The company has to look at such an option because different types of investors may be interested in investing in Ambac’s two main businesses: insuring municipal bonds and guaranteeing structured finance products like collateralized debt obligations, Callen explained. “Clearly one has to look at that because two different types of investors would be looking at these two different types of risks and businesses,” he told CNBC.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:22 pmDon’t worry about my ballsack, there, Woody. Your “bottom” call the other day put me so firmly in the black that only a “short call” by you could threaten me now. (cheesy grin)
February 15th, 2008 at 7:50 pmOtt –
That may be one of the most untintentionally hilarious quotes I’ve seen all year.
Translation: “Yes, there are probably many suicidal fucktards who would enjoy bankrolling my radioactive shitpool of CDO guarantees. Take cavedwelling Imperial Japanese soldiers holed up in the Solomon Islands, for instance…”
February 15th, 2008 at 7:53 pmI’m careful not to even attempt to call a bottom Jakey. However, the ARS / muni stuff sure did highlight more fundamental problems with the financials. Although technically, those bastards are still fighting the “headwind.”
February 15th, 2008 at 9:16 pmI found JJ’s picture on Myspace.
Behold:
February 16th, 2008 at 12:56 amI knew it! He’s an Asian cowboy.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:44 amLook I know many of you are low end middle managers or pot smoking college students who think that MBA will get you more money, bullshit. So in light of this I have come into posecession of a small cartoon that will help you understand what your actually reading each day on this blog about CDO’s, SIV’s, bond insurers, ratings agencies and the fuck bags who run LEH. They don’t teach you this at your little MBA program:
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true&pli=1
February 16th, 2008 at 9:04 amYaps — you’ve been scooped. Someone put that up yesterday. I think Otts.
It is however, hilarious, and I don’t know about the other players, but it has the IB guys “spot on.”
February 16th, 2008 at 9:34 amJake, damn was too busy yelling at people yesterday to see it. Its funny and informative though. And by the way, I still think MBA’s arn’t worth it anymore.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:45 amI put it up, but grabbed it from Barry Ritholtz.
MBA is still worth it. For most of us, a fukk up means financial pain. Only the top MBA schools can teach you how to pull in the 7-figure bonuses for fukking up really, really badly.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:29 amGuys - I’m thinking about surprising the fam with a trip to NYC. However, I think I’d rather stay outside the city for some portion of the trip. Can anyone rec a small town within driving distance? Could be NJ, CT or NY? Something vibey, with some shopping and quaint? Anyone?
February 17th, 2008 at 7:10 pmPost evening thought:
down she goes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azz9BzgsFxkk&refer=home
February 17th, 2008 at 9:12 pmBoomer:
Perfect place for you. Cold Spring, NY
February 18th, 2008 at 1:33 pmSituated right on the Hudson Valley, a little more than an hour outside of Manhattan. Small ,quaint artsy town surrounded my nature, Jazz a night, hiking during the day. Went there with my girlfriend one time. She loved it.
My first internet- experience was not successful. But anyway I keep posting from time to time. All information online is for people to discuss. I think this is the most important thing why internet is so popular everywhere
April 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm