The Bear Market is Over, For Now
So sorry to inform you, at this late juncture, but the retardedly gay bear market we’ve kind of enjoyed is officially over, much to my chagrin.
[[FNM]] loses 3.6 billion for the quarter, yet the stock rips higher on an egregious decision to let them fuck up even more.
No matter what the news is, good, bad or indifferent, the market rips higher.
So, until we see clear signs of a breakdown, I will no longer throw good money after bad, trying to benefit from some sort of cataclysmic event. It’s not happening.
After all, we’ve got a myriad of problems, yet the market does not care. I’m not interested in your fucking conspiracy theories or opinions as to why we are gapping higher everyday. All I care about is where my stocks are trading. For the most part, all of my longs are melting up, while my shorts melt away.
While it’s true this could be a great entry point on some shorts, I see no evidence to suggest sentiment will change, anytime soon. Without a doubt, the market will go lower, eventually, just not now.
My initial approach will not be rushed. I will not cover all of my shorts, right away. Instead, I will immediately increase my long positions, in order to hedge against my overweighted shorts. Then, as price permits, I will scale out of some of my more unsavory short bets, and reallocate the assets accordingly.
My long positions will increase my exposure to the energy creation market and select basic resource plays, and commodities.
Fly, you may not be a contrarion indicator, we are hitting that 12,750 point.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:37 amI guess I was a contrary indicator when I told you to sell everything, prior to the early year smash too, right?
February 27th, 2008 at 9:40 amYou son of a bitch.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:40 amJesus H. Christ, commodities are fucking crazy right now…up and down 5%…
February 27th, 2008 at 9:43 amDONT DO IT FLY. YOU ARE A CONTRARIAN INDICATOR. WE JUST IT A MARKET HIGH, CAUSE YOU ARE CHANGING YOUR MIND
February 27th, 2008 at 9:48 amMother Market is Hillary Clinton on PMS.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:49 amCan oil really sustain $100/bbl? I just don’t see it happening.
Already the past 4 gasoline surveys have showed a decrease in gasoline consumption, and reserves are high.
IMO, this is just the 97 year old grandma on her death bed who rallies for a week, confounding all the grandkids and the doctors, and the next day dies in her sleep.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:52 amThe fucktards’ explanation for the market’s rise in the face or overwhelmingly negative news?
The market is a forward discounting creature that cares not for today’s headlines, but instead focuses on what the headlines might be 3-6 months from now. Blah, blah, blah.
My explanation: Even a retarded drunk afflicted with “Lung Fever” might stagger around awhile before falling down.
That is all.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:55 amThis is what happens when you get all of the sheep lined up on one side of the fence.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:00 amAfter this post I just shorted everything in sight. I am sure we should be crashing any time soon now that the fly has turned short term bullish.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:04 amRiddle me this: how come the market has “priced in” every piece of bad news, often worse than expected… yet hasn’t priced in any of the rate cuts, bailouts, or “Gasparino flatulence”?
February 27th, 2008 at 10:07 amFinally, Congressman Paul.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:07 amHillary Clinton is past menopause.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:12 amEven Paul was soft on the piece of shit. Instead of lobbing moonballs, insert a pair of foreceps into that mealy mouth squat and use it for a chamber pot. This piece of shit is destroying your fucking money and you are cossetting your thumb up your ass. This is not going to end well.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:20 amWow…anybody watching the Dollar? If you short the dollar, thats as good as trade as you can have… we broke through major support…
EURO @1.51
February 27th, 2008 at 10:21 amThat 1 millionth visit party was fubar.
Throw a real party when your total visits hits 1,000,000 (not page views). Your’re not even half way there ya dork!
February 27th, 2008 at 10:23 amDoug Kass: “You want AAA? Buy some batteries, don’t buy MBIA’s shares.”
Fly, surely you are waiting till we at least break 12,800.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:23 amEvery day we wake up, every day the common guy gets screwed. It’s a shame. The rich guys make money screwing the common folks around and when their cash machine breaks down, here comes the government to take it off their hands. Which screws the common folks in the long run, but they are blind to that. The rich guys can not lose. The common guys lose either way. Amazing.
I’m back in my ETFC long and will buy on all major dips from here on out.
Even though their mortgage portfolio will certainty go down, I have 100% conviction that the government will step in to prevent bankruptcy. They have done it before in the past and they continue to do it now.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:54 amGwar,
Used to be in a band with a founding member of your namesake’s band.
Good times.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:56 amfLY,
February 27th, 2008 at 11:14 amyOU MARK MY WORDS.THE MARKET HAS PEAKED. yOU STICK WITH ME.SRS, DUG, DCR, SMN AND ARE GOING HIGHER.
anyone have a good site for the dollar index etc?
dxddx+
February 27th, 2008 at 11:14 amSORRY TO SAY fLY, BUT YOU ARE DEAD WRONG AGAIN. aLL INVERSE ETFS HAVE BOTTOMED. AND mon HAS TOPPED OUT.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:25 amalias: BPOE
This looks like a PPT leak to hedge funds so they can save their Quant Dicks!! This is an election year and Bush will do anything to prolong the crash until 2009. If he is lucky we will stay in a trading range. This will not go good with mother market. She will fuck him up side the head. The hedge funds will need bail out next.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:30 amGetting closer to “The Gasparino Effect” for the day
February 27th, 2008 at 11:31 amSomething sure is fishy, the volume sucks!
Plenty of stocks up 1-2 on fuckface low volume … like CEO 39k shares traded, HAYN 13k, FTI 640K, DVN 858k, RIO 2.8 M, C 10M …. and FRE and FNM have rolled over …. this is SICKO … Where’s Michael Moore when ya need him?
February 27th, 2008 at 11:31 amYeah, s/b a Gasp re bailout money for ABK soon!
February 27th, 2008 at 11:37 amHEY ASSHOLES:
I haven’t done anything yet, but go short the dollar via UDN.
God willing, I am a contrary indicator.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:38 amFLY, DONT BE A BULL. BEARS ALWAYS WIN IN A RECESSION. fUNDAMENTALS ALWAYS WIN IN THE END.DONT GET SO EMOTIONAL FLY, IT MAKES FOR BAD JUDGEMENT.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:39 amtIME TO LOAD UP ON FXP AT 81.00
February 27th, 2008 at 11:40 amShane!
Don’t CAPITALIZE, Shane!
Come back (with smaller letters), Shane!
February 27th, 2008 at 11:50 amJust stop yelling, SHANE!
February 27th, 2008 at 11:53 amAll bear markets have big rallies, possibly to new highs (unlikely. When will you learn that the game is biased long-term to the upside, especially with the Plunge Protection Team help.
Being long and short makes sense in this market, but the same stock? (RIMM).
I don’t know. You trading seems a bit confused right now. Stay on the sidelines until your thoughts are clear. The SPX range of SPX 1300-1425 still exists. Why get aggressive nearer the top, even though the tape looks better.
February 27th, 2008 at 12:00 pmI’ve been bullish since the day after the January 23 capitulation panic puke, but I am amazed at how little backing and filling has occured since then. Virtually everybody said the lows “needed” to be tested, but short interest was so high immediately prior to the pukeage, I think their eagerness to cover has prevented the retest.
It took 5 months to retest the October ‘02 lows, so it could still happen, but I doubt it since stocks are now rallying on bad news.
The Big Swinging Dicks believe earnings estimates are too low and too much bad stuff is being discounted in stock prices.
February 27th, 2008 at 12:03 pmIBH:
Normally, I’d say “good advice.”
But, you cannot see my positions. Therefore, you have little idea of what my real position is.
I covered RIMM around 107, after it ripped my face off. I am now 100% long of RIMM.
I shorted RIMM, because it is a very large position of mine. I did not want to ride it lower, so I boxed it.
February 27th, 2008 at 12:04 pmLOL yeah… just wait 5 days when the market turns. QID trading horizontal… ready to make a move
February 27th, 2008 at 2:47 pmMany times I tried to figure out, what are people talking about here and what they mean by saying stuff like that. And I realized that they just don’t have a clue about the topic themselves. It’s kinda strange. Anyway I have to say that you mast understand, what’s really doing on to comment things. Otherwise you will look and sound stupid.
April 6th, 2008 at 3:04 pm