As a result, ALL banks have to marked down considerably. Monday may be the worst trading day in years. Unless of course, the great bearded one comes swooping down in his gunship.
Developing…
UPDATE: Gold is soaring, more than $23 an ounce.
ROFL UPDATE: The Fed just cut rates. On a fucking Sunday evening, mind you. Nothing screams panic more than a Sunday evening rate cut.
SPECIAL DENNIS KNEALE UPDATE: Bear Sterns [sic] shareholders, fear not of losing money. You only lose money when you sell. If you do not sell, you will not lose money. Plus, what’s the big deal? BSC represents like 0.00000000000009% of the market. Nothing to see here folks. Long optimism!
Fly UPDATE: Fuck a horse, Dennis Kneale.
$2 per share questions: I wonder how the negotiations went? I mean, I’m sure the BSC fuckers thought they’d fetch more than $2 per share. I bet the [[JPM]] players were like: “yo, check this out, son. I’ll give you 2 dolla’s for your company. Take it or leave it.”
Naturally, the BSC nerds were like, “come on guys, we need more. Our wives will leave us, for making a mockery of ourselves. How about where it closed on Friday—$30, please?
As you can imagine, the JPM ballers were like “what the fuck did you say to me, fool? Don’t make me jump over this conference table and cold smack you with the “qwerty” buttons of my blackberry. All we gots for you is 2 dolla’s, in stock that is. No cash.”
In my head, that’s how the JPM-BSC negotiations went.
Time Machine UPDATE: Sift through the iBC commentary of BSC, over the past few months. Quite accurate.
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Let him come, I honest to god hope he does in the morning, i’m sad I am as light on the shorts as I am and the market won’t buy it this time I think.
Lest we forget hidden in the BSC mess is the news that Golden Goldman is going to announce 3b in writedowns.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. My step-dad just called me and told me. Dude, I am cracking up. Nothing like the ol neighborly 401(k) transfer to my account come monday morning. Woooohwee.
Is the rule, short when the blood in the streets is still wet and sticky? Nikkei is flattening out some after nearly 400 points down.
Fly was WRONG!!!!
BSC patents are NOT worthless ….
They’re worth 2 bucks, Chuck.
Peace, out.
Good Night, Irene.
Ouch.
Headlines seem historic. I don’t think there is a pill for what cures this mess. Terminal.
People will be drunk and scared at the same time tomorrow.
Fly- are you going 24/7 with this story as it unfolds. Please let me send you Dunkin Donuts Coffee Gift Card!
25k becomes 2mil. why didn’t i buy those puts! now leh puts will be ‘superjuiced’ and impossible to make bank on, like my music career. gonna be real hard to make money tomorrow. i need a john.
Apparently, the Eurozone economy is now bigger than ours. Did I read that right? With China moving up to the #2 spot quickly.
Quick, somebody queue up the final scene from “Planet of the Apes”.
What the hell can he do?
-DT
I want to hear from Tradercaddy… you were there in 87, correct?
-DT
Heh, I figure MON will be up tomorrow. That shit just won’t fucking break. Hope my BSC puts are worth enough to hedge my C and GS. Personally though I would not doubt if we finish near flat to up tomorrow. Just wait and watch UNLESS, and a big UNLESS, Bernanke and company decide to wait until Tuesday to implement the 100 basis point cut. If they cut in pre-market tomorrow the market will end up as they will cut 100 bips.
Under no scenario will the market end up flat tomorrow.
This is worse than bad. This will leave doubts about every bank traded.
This, my friend, is the type of damage you don’t walk away from.
fun times
Gapping, usually I am in agreement with you. Not this time.
This will be historic.
Are the futures halted?? Having some technical issues.
Tasty. Shorts will cover but the selling longs will overwhelm.
I am suddenly thankful for getting crushed last week. Had I not, I’d be staring at a total wipe out I bet. Just being honest about my former perma bull dysfunction.
For some reason when I see Bush on Kudlow …talking about rough patches…and go on and get your home restructured … just call the Govt. and restructure. Makes me a little nervous.
Wait till the pink slips come… Long TASR
Who said Goldman had 3B in writedowns?… I hadn’t heard that.
Fed is completely out of bullets now. I see variations of the following question on several trading sites: “how to trade the Monday morning emergency rate cut”.
“ZIRP” is priced in, it’s all a sad joke at this point.
Fly,
So what does the average guy on the street do? How does this effect his Monday?
-DT
Hang in there BOOM, plenty of time to adjust and learn how to play this market, just don’t go nuts and start shorting everything at the open tomorrow.
On another note, I don’t see how, in light of how schizophrenic the Fed has been lately, how Gentle Ben does not cut 100bps before the open tomorrow.
Richard: Goldman Sachs to reveal $3bn hit
Gapping, I have MON puts and hope to be buying GS puts tomorrow AM. Also I’m going to look at the other components of XLF for more put buying scenarios. Please be careful gapping.
Bernanke is like a loose cannon, you can’t predict what he’ll do. The normal expectations of the Fed don’t apply with him.
You know, this Internet thing was nice while we all had electricity and hadn’t ripped our computers open for the “valuable metals” trapped therein.
-DT
DT- Yes, I was around for ’87 crash. The main similarity is the falling dollar and the main difference was that the Fed was tightening back then and now they are loose as a goose. The dollar really got trashed (DMark and Yen) over the weekend before 10/19/87 (Black Monday) because the Sec. of the Treasurer James Baker was calling for a lower dollar to help the trade deficit.
I do remember gold spiking big Mon. morning but gold stocks like Echo Bay Mines and Homestake were unchanged. Then about an hour or so later in the morning the gold stocks went down with all of the other equities and commodities including gold reversed and crashed. They crashed because everything got sold from margin calls and fear of another depression causing less demand for commodities.
If their is a “crash” keep an eye on oil and gold for a reversal to the downside and get out along with any gold stocks you have owned. You will be able to buy them at a lower price unless your still vomiting and the quotes aren’t lagging by a half hour or so.
Off to bed after having just walked 18 holes and driven nine hours.
PS I also just read somewhere about GS 3 bill writeoff. I think it was here-
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/03/goldman-sachs-1.html
Good news though, Beanie says there’s no better time to invest in Solar!
Gold +32.00! Thanks alot Ben!
LOL DT, good one! Yeah I did some time with a company that recovered gold from old circuit boards, that was a big money maker.
Want easy plays?
Long gold, via DGP or GLD.
Short dollars, via UDN
Long Yen, via FXY.
Short WM, for those fuckers trade to zero.
By the way, as per my 2008 predictions, I consider BSC the first of two major institutions to fold.
1 down 1 to go.
It’s frightening that the ultimate dealmaker/negotiator Schwartz could only get $2 per share after saying book value was $80 on Friday.
Wood and Fly: I would be in agreeance with you had the Fed not gone Kong Fu on my ability to profit immensely from my shorts a month ago when the fucking French fags fucked up the futures. I just feel like this fed will come out tomorrow and say they will buy back all of the fucking toxic paper from every fucking bank thus tanking our dollar, shooting commodities and equities much higher and once again fucking up my shorts of SMN and DUG. But then again I have not seen this fucked up of a crisis since I have been trading (I wasn’t trading in 87).
By the way the FED cut the discount window 25 bips, woo fucking hoo. That ain’t gonna do shit to save this mess. 100 bips tomorrow will though.
The Fed’s patents are worthless.
helicopter ben and the rest of the team can’t do anything to save the mkt tomorrow. i agree with Fly that under no circumstance will the mkt close in positive territory. fear will overwhelm and possibly result in enormous losses tomorrow. i can’t believe i moved into cash ahead of fed week. FUCKKKKKK
Bernanke scares me, thinking he’s Captain Kirk, boldly going where no economist has gone before. Dangerous. Pretty soon you’ll be able to buy your local bank with one bar of gold.
dow futures down almost 300 points. initial reaction to bear news was +70. i can’t believe people would be stupid enough to initially believe this was positive.
Bernanke is pulling this shit out of his old academic papers, titled “What to Do When Everything Is Truly Fucked Beyond Belief” (or something like that). This is like some kind of macro science experiment to him.
The trouble is, once you start using “Plan B” right out of the gate, and it doesn’t work… you discover there is no “Plan C”. Proceed directly to the exits.
what if they nationalize mortgages, with a fannie/freddie/wamu/bring out your dead mortgages announcement tomorrow? come one come all to the window of love, we will take the mortgages, we will absorb the risks?
Our nation’s balance sheet looks like someone took a bank ledger and shit all over it.
Isn’t this exactly how 2000 played out? Jan sell offs, Feb got everyone excited and poof, collapse in March?
Fly – what are your predictions for tomorrow? How bad?
The Merrill analyst who didn’t like the size of his bonus took a dump on the bathroom floor.
I should hire a fleet of planes to drop 25 tonnes (British spelling) of horse shit on that shiny new building at 383 Madison Avenue.
any of you fags sleeping tonight?
TC,
Thanks. Interesting stuff… I wouldn’t have thought about gold turning, but it makes sense in a fucked up way.
Good luck tomorrow everyone. Gonna try to sleep.
-DT
“what if they nationalize mortgages, with a fannie/freddie/wamu/bring out your dead mortgages announcement tomorrow? come one come all to the window of love, we will take the mortgages, we will absorb the risks?”
The mortgage mess is in the trillions, and the government knows that this is just beginning.
Last I heard, the mortgage mess is $2 trillion dollars in bad loans. $400B subprime. $1+ trillion Alt-A. $400+ prime jumbos. To put things in perspective, the resets for the Alt-A mortgages have not started yet. The resets will begin in earnest this summer.
If WM is still in business by the time the resets start, they will be completely washed out by the fallout of the Alt-A resets.
Ya know, if I hadn’t already lost all my money I’d be worried.
Just out of historical curiosity, has the Fed ever announced a cut on a weekend previously? Holy shit tomorrow is going to be fun to watch in the abstract. It is also going to be horrifying to watch on a personal level.
Reading the Fed release, it seems the previous $200 billion “cash for trash” facility was going to start on March 27.
But the new lending facility opens on Monday.
This must mean that another large concern is “horsefucked”, and we’ll be hearing about it next week.
I guess each bank gets its own lending facility announcement now.
Nikkei down over 500 – those furriners must stop for lunch? FED will probably cut 1% before the market opens – you can’t make a fortune in a day unless you bought some of those BSC puts a week ago.
I am fond of that term “horsefucked.” I think I will use it.
WallStreetHunter… Then you’ll be getting richer tomorrow because everybody else will be getting a little closer to zero too.
Enjoy the carnage.
i was personally “horsefucked” when i went short the day after MLK. does anybody believe tomorrow will be different — meaning there will be no bear rally this week?
Fuck!!! CNBC World is just as bad as regular CNBC. “Desperation”, “behind the curve”….all they need is an asian Gasparino (fade in greasy big headed asian talking over all other commentators).
lol at new update
I hope A. Schwartz gets “horsefucked” in the can for these lies: Just four days after Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz assured Wall Street that his company was not in trouble, he was forced on Sunday to sell the investment bank to competitor JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of $2 a share, or $236.2 million
Anybody holding FXP? Drinks will be on you tomorrow.
Damn I can’t believe CNBC went live now. These fucks are expecting a major fucking collapse.
Runaway consumerism is dead. Here’s a few of the victims.
1. Circuit City(CC): They might as well go ahead and put the closed sign up in the window. They deserve whatever comes at them. A few years ago when they started firing productive, veteran employees and replacing them with 17 yearolds in order to save money, I knew the writing was on the wall.
2. Pier One(PIR): so 90s.
3. Cost Plus Inc(CPWM): I’d much rather shopping be at Trader Joe’s.
4. Wilson’s Leather(WLSN): This one’s been on life support for years.
5. Hott Topic(HOTT): Hey, punk, mom’s credit card is maxed out, guess you can’t spend anymore.
6. Heelys(HLYS): Kids skating when they should be walking annoys me. No great loss.
Fuck all of them to zero.
By far the best post of your career at iBC fly.
for every 18 shares of Bear you get 1 JPM, damn that sucks for the 401k holders
How many JPM’s does it take to fuck a Bear?
Answer: 0.05473
Well since I have too much adrenalin to sleep tonight, I guess I’ll go watch CNBC. In my mind, the American CNBC anchors are currently on an emergency telephone conference, going “Ok, how do we spin this one tomorrow morning? Let’s get our stories straight.”
I hope Chuckie Gasparino and Cramer were both long BSC.
I’m pissed you cut that last post down before we got to #100, but it looks like this sucker is well on its way.
________________
Anyone ticked off at JPM “stealing” their $2 — because let’s not quibble, BitchSterno is worth nada, zip, pile o’ ashes, nuclear radiation, etc — can get their revenge like I have by shorting the fuknecks at JPM into obscurity.
Fly, you’ve been spot on with about everything (good work). you proved me completely wrong on dollar-euro. i thought ECB would be forced to cut which would weaken the euro — they are stupider than i ever imagined.
Im about to go and crank one out to the CNBC slut from Australia to take my mind off of those BSC puts.
“By far the best post of your career at iBC fly.”
Indeed.
Cheers to all ya’ll brass balls fuckers holding alot puts. I sold most my puts, but I guess a few puts is better than none. A round of drinks tomorrow. Tab goes to the fucker with the biggest dick gain tomrrow.
Let the market bleed out first damn it… bernanke must be TRYING to cause a crash, let the market come down first, this is absolutely nuts. F this, take out loans as a dollar today will be worth 100 times more than it will be in 5 years, and buy as much SKF as you can. goddamn bernanke is nuts
we are so fucked! the solution to the stock crash was to slash rates and pump up real estate wealth. now that real estate and stock mkts are crashing, the fed is once again slashing rates, which is slashing the dollar and pumping up commodities. whats next to pump and imagine what real estate would look lke if rates were increasing right now.
I see that JP morgan has used my time machine for financial gain, and is using the federal reserve to make it even eaiser to control the entire worlds economy, and ultimately the world. I never should have gotten involved with that man.
So many sleep tonight, dreaming dreams of fat social security checks and EZ-Go golfcarts.
Stealthily, I slip under their houses, where they keep their 401-k tanks, and I unscrew the “release valve.”
Quietly.
Oh, so quietly…
Don’t worry JP is spinning in his grave right now.
lol another cut… coil that spring back further… It’s going to become impossible to raise rates if they cut it about 1.5 point more before they hike… pretty soon a .5 rate cut will put us back in the stone age…
I’m guessing that the rate cutes will eventually take effect, and we’ll have a freaking launch of the market, and then a dot com style fuckover.
Then again, we may just hyperinflation ourselves into oblivion… “amero” anyone?
Hey, If I have short the dollar via UDN in a US account, and the dollar is phazed out and replaced with the “amero”, can I convert my UDN into this new currancy, or am I fucked unless I own blunts, hookers, euros, and a european account or some shit that I can cash into their currancy?
We all know that our DGP and GLD is not redeamable in physical gold…
We’re all fucked, time to move the country fuckers
No shit, back in ’07 I bailed all those fuckers out (yeah I know, you’re expecting an old fart like me to talk all “olde-tyme” and shit).
Then you fuckers created the Fed, so that shit wouldn’t happen again.
What a bunch of fucking shitcock strawberry-banana-flavored chicken fuckers.
Back to my dirt nap. Wake me up when the Dow is back to 60. I’ll rattle my chains and shit.
I’m glad I bought SLV, DGP, and various gold mining stocks and am overweight gold and silver, and I’m glad I bought SMN at $39, but WTF didn’t I buy SKF for!
Rock boys in the buildin tonight!
and Baron’s just did an appraisal of BSC at $20-30 …. guess they forgot about all the negative assets… more Enron 401K holders for sure!
Question is, will everyone put their nesteggs in the farmers basket or will the fox scare off the hens and leave the nest easy pickins for midgets?
Don’t fuck with us JP. Your gnarled ass was on Jekyll Island as well, putting the Beast together…
http://loanworkout.org/2008/03/16/bear-stearns-the-mighty-great-bear-who-preyed-upon-helpless-americans-has-been-wounded-to-the-point-of-death/
Just so you won’t forget me anytime soon. It is entirely conceivable we will see a 3 day progressive decline with Wednesday being the worst at more than 10% down culminating with an intraday low between 9800 – 10000. Mind you this will only take us back to April 2005 when the excesses were only just kicking into gear. After what will appear to be a hefty bounce for one quarter, the decline and bottom will settle in the 9000 range sometime in Q2 2009. We’ll be ok for at least another generation and a new bubble will inflate all over again.
I saw some documentary on the history channel about all the doomsday predictions and how like 90% of them pointed to Dec 2012… that’s 4 years, and judging by the fact that hitlary is still in the running to replace “george magog bush”, and america is accelerating down the toilet, with there hands on about 30 trillion pounds worth of nukes that’s entirely possible.
Fear – when would you be buying? Your pal, Greed
the financial situation is becoming more and more evident of various predictions.
you cut rates, we hike rates
JPM owns 92 trillion dollars worth of exploding dog shit.
what does the time machine say financial #2 is?
Fear doesn’t buy. Fear fucks buyers. Fear is just arriving at work and has a lot to do. My friend Greed…you may choose to buy when I take lunch but you will have your ass handed to you because I’ll come back from my 3 martini lunch having downed 4 martinis. Martinis make Fear very angry and vengeful. You wouldn’t dare show your green ass until I pack up my Superman lunch pail and drive my AMC Gremlin all the way home to the tip of Mexico.
$92 trillion worth?
What is that shit? Gold plated?
C’mon boys, just eleven more.
Ten more with this one.
I’m goin’ a bed.
Futures are on crack.
There is no future.
This shit is bananas. I should have slept in.
Could this be the shit that brings in the global depression?
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=25859&Cr=cereal&Cr1=
“Dangerous wheat-killing fungus detected in Iran”
Getting out the AK, AR, Sniper rifle, B4 and extra ammo. People starting to loot around here. Chaos.
The paradox of the Woodshedder Top is just incredible. Fly’s time machine ain’t shit compared to Wood.
What happened to “decoupling”?
S&P said the end is in sight. No worries.
The Fed will save the day.
You fuckers better go praise Jesus or start chanting Nam-Myoho-Renge-Kyo. Oatmeal can’t save you now.
Fly, you are wrong again as usual. Bear Stearns is actually up 82%* pre-market. Man all those shorts are gonna get burned! You guys are all so fucked here.
* (82% = $3.64 from $2)
done
I will be curious to see how JPM trades.
I assume there will be a run on LEH assets. As Carl Sagan would say, “Billions and billions” will be running, not walking, out that wire transfer door.
For you e-wavers, we should be in the midst of a wave 5 decline of bear market leg #1. Which means a recovery should begin by midweek.
In the completely useless analysts department: UBS downgrades from Buy to Neutral – GS LEH BK STT AMTD IVZ
Should they be paid or should money be withdrawn from their 401Ks like all the clients who listened to their timely & sage advice?
1150 SPX target for this week?
LEH bidding below $26… or $13 below Friday’s closing price.
The rumor is now reality.
Meanwhile, CNBC is getting the story only half right. Yes, there’s a “credit crunch and crisis” (meanwhile, “credit crunch” is a great name for a cereal, no?) but really, what drives stocks down so sharply so fast is a complete lack of confidence.
-DT
You know what kind of medicine this market needs? An honest to goodness melt up. Not that pansy ass version we got last week. 400 pts with no follow through – ha. With so many shorts we need to squeeze this pimple all the way to 13000. Then with all the “worst is over” news letting little old ladies sleep better at night, drop the fucker like a rock.
Call me a complete fucking idiot but I am buying some GS here at 141. However I am short LEH to hedge this. I know its risky but I firmly believe GS will be on the right side of this trade.
gapping,
I dunno… something tells me we’re not gonna just see the lows of the day at the open. It’ll take a little more time to see all the fear hit the market. GS could trade like a complete crackhead… good luck.
Good hedge though, LEH in trouble. I’m short UBS.
-DT
DT: I personally believe that Bear is a unique situation. We will see but I believe GS is a good entry here and they report tomorrow.
alias:BPOE
Now that the Bull Shit is getting bagged. Margin calls on Tuesday could slash some large balls!!
Margin call time?
Crude and now gold heading south.
For those so inclined IAI ETF (Broker-Invs. Broker ETF) would be a little more conservative play rather than a direct GS buy. GS makes up about 10% of the ETF (BSC was about 4%).
Shift from commodities to equities?
gappy,
Maybe so… but what matters most now isn’t numbers, it’s psychology.
I hope it works out… I remember very well last August when Maria was crowing about what a great buy GS was at $160, so I guess that means it’s a real steal at $140…
-DT
gold and oil are falling like a cat from a 12 story building…dollar is strengthening.
DT: Agree its perception. On another note my biggest shorts are OIL (DCR, DUG) and SMN! Oil needs to be hammered here. Same with these gay seed stocks.
So what do you guys think about trying to fade the gap today on BSC from $2 to $30. Think it might work?
KCE is another Inves. broker ETF. Top three are Merrill, GS, and MS.
Watching Q’s go up while financials go South. Sign for long tech? Watching.
Fly,
Next up short LEH to zero? Puts!
EFU-SMN long!