You Go, I’ll Wait Here
Today’s trading reminds of my childhood, growing up in Brooklyn. As a youngster, little Fly had many friends who knew no boundaries. Every day, they’d think up new ways to get into trouble. Whether it was lighting a bag of shit on fire, leaving it on someone’s front door, then ringing the home owners bell or simply sneaking into a backyard to steal a sour apple, from a stupid Brooklyn apple tree, young Fly would always decline to participate (remember my IQ was higher than theirs).
My typical response to overzealous activities was “you go, I’ll wait here.”
That’s exactly what I’m saying to my new Wall Street friends today, who are out in the backyard of mystery, picking a sour apple from the tree of [[MER]], [[MS]] or [[WM]]—trying to pick a bottom.
It’s a fairy tale to believe we walk away from the [[BSC]] debacle unscathed. It is foolishness, at its highest level, to fathom the market will bottom here today, because [[JPM]] ripped off 14,000 employees from Bear.
With my money, I will continue to buy gold, via [[DGP]], short commercial real estate, via [[SRS]] and short basic resource stocks, via [[SMN]].
In addition, I will continuously sell short the shares of [[FED]] and [[DSL]], until they hit zero.
Take a look at [[NCC]] today and tell me if you have faith in our financial system.
While it’s true, dumber people than me may temporarily prop the market higher, via erroneous buy orders. However, “The Fly” is here to tell his loyal readers, when your broker calls you up to suggest purchase of stock, declaring “this is the bottom,” just know, it’s a flaming bag of shit he is attempting to leave on your front door.
Don’t you dare step on it.
Next Shoe UPDATE: [[MF]] is being ax murdered. No news, so far.
“He called the shit poop!”
March 17th, 2008 at 8:32 am“This is the greatest night of my life!”
If you don’t mind dumber people than you erroneously moving the markets up 10-15% off this weeks bottom, you have rather large cojones.
And I salute your cojones.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:32 amThe shitbag was a good analogy.
Be honest. You were probably like the bullshitter Eddie Haskell, directing all the little asshats to do stupid things, much to their chagrin and your amusement.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:36 amI’m ready for ignition as fed cuts .75 tommorrow. I’m using today to sell some of my SMN that I bought at 38.5 so I can raise cash while I wait until the fed cut props the market higher, then I’ll take your advice and short banks, real estate, etc… For now Ben’s coming to the resuce… or so people with bipolar bags of “poop” on their doorstep will think.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:38 amBut yeah, it would be insane to call a “bottom” unless that person is calling themselves one.
MF is crushing GFIG, FCSX
no clues about any of them
March 17th, 2008 at 8:42 amHow many times did little Fly stick his tongue on a flag pole in the winter to see if it would stick?
March 17th, 2008 at 8:42 amVisa IPO on Wednesday will sure be interesting since the banks will get a nice cash infusion if it works.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:43 amMF wowser.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:45 amMy lord, still with the Visa ipo banter.
Some of you people just don’t get it.
Don’t come crying to me when your account hits zero.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:46 am“fairly” [sic].
Otherwise, fantastic post.
Might I add, when I was young, I’d regularly swing from willow trees, while playing my banjo.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:48 amThat MF was insane…
-DT
March 17th, 2008 at 8:49 amFly,
SMN looks amazingly good…ags/basic metals plummeting. How big is your position? My “long” hedge (RJZ) just triggered at a stop loss (break-even) at 11.40 from 12.25 a couple of weeks ago.
SMN is up 5.77%, with newmont mining up 2.5%.
No capitulation today…looks like we are far from over… still…
GO LONG YEN via FXY, and short dollar at UDN. Best safe place in the book, now that the market is priced in a full 100 basis points tomorrow.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:49 amFly, my time machine says:
1) S&P 500 will be much higher by end of day Tuesday due to way too negative sentiument.
2) Gamestop will blow out earnings tomorrow driving the stock price higher.
That’s it. Nothing more. No more predictions more than that.
And my account is up nicely this year. Thank you very much. Not up 100% like yours, but still nicely up.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:49 amAbc,
lighten up on the commenting, no one seems to care what you think. If you want people to read your market predictions, join the Peanut Gallery.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:52 amABC:
Don’t mind Gunners. He’s just a gangster.
You’re welcome to comment all you want.
SMN is now my largest position.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:53 amAbc- you’re loosing [sic] it.
On the other thread, you stated the S&P will close 3% higher than today’s low.
3% above todays low will put the close right at 1300.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:54 amWood:
I “amended” your last comment.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:55 amFly- thank you. I had repressed that part of my young existence, Ned Beatty notwithstanding…
March 17th, 2008 at 8:58 amABC as easy as 123. Appropriate since you are a child afterall. See ya. Margin the farm and keep buying bonehead.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:59 amDie MON, DIE!
Gangsta style, now that I’m a Gangster
March 17th, 2008 at 8:59 amMF means business.
All the way to zero, today?
They’re a big outfit.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:00 amMF=major bearflag breakdown
March 17th, 2008 at 9:00 amIBKR crushed.
Counterparty exposure?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:01 amso you’re not trimming up shares of SMN today so you can reload that ammo back into SMN after the post cut rally?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:03 amGunners, Your wish is my command:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/03/17/gamestop-going-to-rock-tomorrow/
March 17th, 2008 at 9:04 amAlias: BPOE
When I was a kid in Belmar we didn’t play with shit. We made money by charging people $5.00 for the free Boat Launch.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:05 amAnybody has to balls to outright SHORT OIL?
Oh btw, anybody stopping at the BSC building during lunch? Man, I know we all profited heavily from the BSC demise, but you have to feel sorry for the middle/lower guys at the firm.
To think, I rejected a BSC i-banking job two years ago, shows you how smart I am…
sniff sniff “something dont smell right at this firm”
March 17th, 2008 at 9:05 amOil has been behaving unlike any other time… its going up all the time while supply and demand has remained relatively the same… Once oil cracks a little, it will tank back to the 70s or 80s. DUG?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:08 amwow, TSO at $27 .. yikes
March 17th, 2008 at 9:13 amyeah, oils freakin over rated… We used to have a chant at highschool football games when we kicked the crap out of sthe next “#1″ team, all the way to a state champ… I can just hear the chanting about oil now…
March 17th, 2008 at 9:13 am“Over rated clap clap clap clap clap over rated…”
Quick on your feet, children… the Cubes (QQQQ) have about a dime to go before they break support again. And this shall be a biggee.
Don’t play like a Saracen, however. Make sure you allow the clean break through $41.30, and then short the return back up to that region.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:14 amFly
What do you think about UDN in the short term?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:14 amIf oil does break down It should be a good time to rotate into refiners, such as TSO and VLO, no?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:14 amnevertheless I still think POST fed cut is the time to get ready to short… Not sure I have the cajones for Dug, even though I should play it.. it’s like when you’re 15 and you know you should go and talk to the cute girl that’s been smiling at you, but you just cant man up and do it.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:15 amAlso, for JOYG shorters — the first line (23.6%) of the blessed St. Fibonacci resides at $65.60 (moments away, children).
If JOYG permeates that strata, it’s next layer of limestone is not until $64.00.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:18 amBuffetts warning over derivatives exploding the market are coming home to roast
all the derivative brokers, IBKR GFIG FCSX MF etc … annihilation
March 17th, 2008 at 9:19 amRE: “You go, I’ll stay here.”
Peer pressure made it’s name in Brooklyn, when the original mother made the admonition to her son:
If all your friends said they was gonna jump offa the Brooklyn Bridge, would you go too??
Unfortunately, in Fly’s neighborhood, this was a realistic scenario.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:20 amOld men over 47 1/2 do know a thing or two.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:21 amObserve: JOYG meets it’s first Fibonacci retracement.
No disrespect to any of you children, but St. Fibonacci was a true “Space Alien Magician.”
March 17th, 2008 at 9:22 amAs these gyrations continue, market participants tend to feel other characteristics of Uranus: instability, insecurity, nervousness and on the verge of hysteria and panic. With Uranus, it can either suddenly reverse, or it can completely fall apart. You just never know for sure, and if you think you do, you are apt to be seriously humbled.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:22 amThe erratic market experiences of the first two weeks of this month are not likely to end. Just as the market fell when the Sun translated the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition from February 24 through March 10, Venus will do the same from March 15 through March 28. On the positive side, Financial Astrologers can point to the idea that Venus is at least now in Pisces, a sign in which it is exalted. They can also point to the fact that the first passage will be the opposition of Venus to Saturn, which takes place this weekend, March 15. Oftentimes when a market is falling into this aspect, it will bottom, and then stage a sudden recovery just as soon as it is over. Could the stock market have bottomed last week? According to this Financial Astrology principle, the answer is yes. But according to the concept of planetary translation, there is also a possibility the market could continue making these wild price swings right into the time that Venus finishes its conjunction to Uranus on March 28.
And it may not even end of March 28, for during that period, we see another type of translation: the Sun will translate over the recent Mars-Pluto opposition between March 21 and March 30 followed by Pluto turning retrograde on April 2. Pluto rules both debt and threat to human lives or crops. Even though news reports stated that the worst may now behind us with the sub-prime mess and the subsequent write-downs by financial institutions, there may still some more reports of losses coming up during that time.
So hold onto your seats. This wild ride may not be over yet.
“Millionaires don’t use astrology… Billionaires do”
March 17th, 2008 at 9:23 amJ.P. Morgan
Oh ho ho, Solo.
Fibo Nacci from Tattooine. He me brudder-in-law.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:23 amPoor Beanie… wonder how deep he’s actually in the hole with his solar junk.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:24 amWord from NCC, where my little brother works.
“Pantloads everywhere.”
______________
Wood, he’s in Richmond, I hope you have a job for him somewhere. If not, I may have to sell him to the Fly.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:26 amIBKR says the only unhedged risk is their overnite fx exposure.. so the question is who is on the other side of the hedge.. Freak.. I trade with these people.
YOu wanted Bear blood and now I gave it to you. I had promised insolvency and I delivered. Now it is my turn to collect - I will leave you your soul, however take over the blog. I want an extra large tab, on the left side and you go on the other side of Woody, next to the honey hole and the bees.
The Fido momo chasers are out of ammo on the CRM prop. No more lies about takeouts, no more Microsoft dreams. just Oracle and SAP nightmares. Feel free to short them down to a realistic multiple of ther earnings - of a annualized quarter.
Tuco.. I am in awer of you.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:27 amI am losing my shit looking at all these companies that I either used to work for, or for whom I received offers coming out of business school.
This is a life ruining experience for a lot of people I’m close with. I’m thinking I’m going to have to start making suicide prevention phone calls…
March 17th, 2008 at 9:32 amJake, send him to see me. If nothing else, I’ve got a spare room.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:32 amI don’t need to look @ NCC to understand that buying U.S. financials makes about as much sense as buying shares in a used power plant in Chernobyl.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:34 amYea Jakey, I know , I’m gonna drop by my school club at midtown and try to hold hands with the dudes at Bear.. fucking unbelievable.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:35 amIs Calvino’s interpreter in the house?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:35 amcalvino,
I have no idea how MAC and SKT are holding up in this shitstorm. Are you still short?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:36 am‘[MF] Today 12:07pm
March 17th, 2008 at 9:37 amMF Global Ltd. Wire story states shares are down on concerns commodity prime brokerage customers are pulling funds’
Financials are being forced to consolidate. Unfortuneately [sic], it doesn’t mean higher prices. But it does mean better “bargains” for the surviving generals.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:40 amJPM and BSC employees will play musical chairs. The fat lady is singing. I feel sorry for them all.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:41 amBreaking News!
March 17th, 2008 at 9:43 amBob Pasani is talking!
KC - how can I express myself clearly to you?
Gunners, the performance of those two is truly miraculous.. I would be happy to wait for them to get mauled, except I am getting a buy in call on SKT today. This is the kind of bullshit that Scottrade pulls, and I kept that account mostly to get shorts that IBKR could not give me. Fuck that idea.. told them if they fuck me on this, I am pulling my account and they don’t give a crap. Anyhow, if I had to guess, this is short squeeze that is costing these bitchbags much money, that is getting harder to get. They got their buy in, but I think that is calling the end of this bullshit.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:46 amCalvinoism has now replaced English as the official language of the business world.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:49 amCal– just messin ….I like your commentary… Roger
March 17th, 2008 at 9:50 amIs that DUG or is that a rocket? WHOOOSH
March 17th, 2008 at 9:51 amSerious question guys. What is the best online broker? I’ve used Etrade, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, and Schwab .. they all suck for short borrows.
I’m not touching IBKR either with all this stuff going on.
What do you guys use and why do you like them?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:53 amWood,
Hope you’ve got tolerance for another kid. Little girl, about three. She’s cute, I’ll vouch.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:53 amJakey- if we don’t all meet up and let the kids play while we drink beer and eat brats, it will be a travesty.
However, another little one, no matter how cute, may throw my wife into a tail spin…hahahah At least on a permanent basis. They’re always fun for a weekend or two.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:56 amIs the market firming up for a 2:00 pm statement by the Bearded Clam?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:58 amVery strange- I wanted to buy IAI (Investment broker ETF)(when it was 32.71) and I got a message from my online broker that I couldn’t buy it online and had to call. Forget that. Don’t like talking to humans at a brokerage.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:59 amJust remember:
It’s always darkest before dawn…
So if you’re going to a flaming bag of poop on your neighbors doorstep, that’s the time to do it.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:59 amHey I have kid too. We can all have a party and let the kids play and drink beer.
I gave the great bearded one a lot of crap since last August for making our currency into toilet paper.
But saving Bear Stearns from imploding the markets over the weekend with all the counterparty risk was the right thing to do and he should be commended for it. Just for that though.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:01 amLooking at the volatility index, the general pessimism, the magazine covers and newspaper headlines proclaiming recession, depression or worse, the put/call ratio, the failure of a wallstreet investment bank, the plethora of negativity surrounding every aspect of the economy and lots of other factors, I believe we are at or close to a tradeable market bottom which should hold till atleast May.
We are pricing in armageddon in the markets. How much worse can it get ? This morning it appeared the world was ending. When the headlines are so bad can you really make money betting on downside ? Everyone is short or in cash. I don’t think there is much money left to be made on the downside (atleast short term).
Call me a fool but I am closing most of my inverse ETFs - SRS SKF SMN DUG QID SDS DXD today and picking up some QLD DDM SSO UYG for an upside trade. I think a short covering rally could be brutal.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:02 amWell, I just got back from my 3 martini lunch. I was planning on only having 5 but the waitress was particularly cute so I felt the need to impress by putting down 6. Not so good. In fact I’m feeling a little queasy. Greed…get your ass over here so I can puke on your shoes.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:04 amBabysitter, did you eat Fear?
March 17th, 2008 at 10:05 amFear, you got the wrong moniker for this one.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:06 amI’m thinking to myself “Babysitter doesn’t drink!”
March 17th, 2008 at 10:06 amFMCN hits the chopping block
nasdaq 25% off its oct highs
SPX -20%
Dow -18%
I’m thinking there’s room to SPX 1150 for this leg down
1050 in the fall after a soon to be issued relief rally
in the event of armageddon, all bets are off
March 17th, 2008 at 10:13 amIn honor of St. Patrick’s Day (I’m very close to 100% Irish, with a sliver of German to dilute out the drunken inclinations), I want to present the picture of JakeGint’s “perfect woman.”
Not only is this babe a stone cold fox, and 100% Irish, but she’s going to own the New York Giants some day!
Ladies and Germs, Ms. Kate Mara!
March 17th, 2008 at 10:14 amBabysitter/Fear. Quick hint… if you “click” on the “name” part of your post, you can change it, just like you can the “body” part.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:15 amWhere’s Alpha Frog?
Checkout the ten week EMA on MOS — right at $100.10.
LOD for MOS? $100.05.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:19 amJake,
Now I know why I’m a die hard Giants fan.
I’m not in MOS any longer, you drunken Irishman.
Thinking about a straddle.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:23 amLEHman going to zero.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:24 amJakeGint…you got me!
March 17th, 2008 at 10:24 amCheck my post on “fixing” your moniker, Fear. You may still have some of your fifteen minutes left, not sure.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:26 amJake,
Ask St. Fib if he thinks we print 11,700 Dow today.
Pass me another pint!
March 17th, 2008 at 10:27 amWow, LEH shit the shower! Henry and Emmanuel Lehman are rolling over in their graves.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:31 amI’m theorizing that the “Mother’s Committee” must be the secret cabal on the buy side of LEH right now.
Only they could love this stock.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:35 amCIT racing NCC to $0. I think NCC wins, but it will be a photo finish.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:50 ami love little fly, more little fly or SON oF FLY
March 17th, 2008 at 11:05 am