Go Eat a Sandwich
Pardon me, I’ve been in meetings all morning. I come back, much to my chagrin, the market is up like a thousand points. What the fuck?
Taking a quick look, I can see [[GS]] and [[LEH]] posted good numbers. However, it’s worth noting, LEH lost 5 billion dollars under management for the quarter. Nonetheless, both stocks are off to the races. I will not touch them.
What really perplexes me is the fantastic run in [[BSC]]. I mean, isn’t that bitch going out at 2 bucks? Something isn’t right. Right off the bat, my default reaction says people are gambling fools.
In general, the market is gapping higher, thanks to a short squeeze. My guess, once the Fed announced their decision, we will sell off.
However, should that fucker really lose his mind and cut by 1%, there is a remote chance the market will close up 500 points plus. So, whatever you have in mind, be careful.
My approach is to wait out the rally, then pounce on a few of my favorite losers, like short [[FED]] or long [[SMN]] and [[SRS]].
In short, playing the market requires patience and conviction. It’s very easy to get scared one way or another. Luckily for “The Fly,” he drives a plutonium powered time machine.
apparently the bondholders are buying the equity to make sure the BSC
March 18th, 2008 at 9:17 amdeal goes through
god, how is FED still above $10? Doesn’t everyone know about them?
March 18th, 2008 at 9:18 amI thought the BSC buyout was for .057 shares of JPM?
March 18th, 2008 at 9:19 amWhat really perplexes me is the fantastic run in BSC…
Lewis is probably buying all he can so as to make a fight of it.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:20 amWhat are the emissions on a time machine like that?
-DT
March 18th, 2008 at 9:23 amSo Fly,
When do you think LEH becomes a good short candidate again. You don’t think this pop is a good place to start to build a position considering it went from a low of $20 yesterday to $44 today? Don’t you think a lot of this has to do with the Fed’s don’t talk shit about other brokers gag order over the weekend?
March 18th, 2008 at 9:24 amAny old men on this board? AKA bond traders? I need some insight, I own VBIIX which I have owned for a couple years. I am looking to sell this and wonder if I should sell it tomorrow or today or wait on it? Thoughts?
March 18th, 2008 at 9:28 amGold stocks acting crappy. Is gold ready to give up the ghost?
March 18th, 2008 at 9:33 amIt looks like you have a bunch of FHLB and agency paper in that VBIIX to me. Things that make you go hmm.
Oh, and Fly, here is an article about BSC.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:33 amIf I was motivated, I’d short LEH right now, with a 1/4th position—and continuously sell it, up to $55.
No way that fucker passes $55.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:34 amShort dollar, UDN, is holding up.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:34 amConsidering, SMN isn’t down too badly.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:35 amMy dear Fly,
March 18th, 2008 at 9:35 amI’m betting w/you
is LEH a short here to hedge a GS long?
Nevermind just read your comments.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:44 amIf I had a time machine I would go way back in time and it would be super easy to convince everyone that I was god, and then I would steal everyones wife.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:59 amCmon, you knew GS was going to post decent numbers. $3 billion writedown rumor out of the UK? Headfake, berry obvious! My GS calls paid off nicely today.
LEH - Level 3 assets, scary. Shorting the shit out of it here.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:00 amThe El-Erian guy on CNBC right now looks like Lurch (Addams Family) with eyebrows and a mustache.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:05 amstop grasping straws..”However, it’s worth noting, LEH lost 5 billion dollars under management for the quarter.”
that was more due to market movement rather than outflow
March 18th, 2008 at 10:08 am18.7% of BSC float was shorts - they are banking coin, no? I asked Paul McCartney to marry me - I’ll do anything for $50 mill.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:09 amThey are clearly cutting 100 basis points…PLUS that stupid VISA IPO is coming out tomorrow, and options expiration day on Thursday, I have my SP500 target at 1350 (50 MA). Will buy banks to ride this VISA shit out, while keeping my small portion of shorts (85% cash right now).
If your heavily short, hedge yourself long.
Anybody saw GS numbers? Man…it was a fuckin horrible..all major revenues streams went to the shit with the exception of currency/commodities trading. Book value still at 93, with tangible at 80.28. GS is fairly expensive relative to LEH book value at 38.50.
Anybody ran valuation on good banks to buy to long for this short bounce?
March 18th, 2008 at 10:10 amlet me fill yall in on a lttle secret.. jpm aint getting the bear for 2 bucks. if you were long bsc stock and it was trading for 8 bucks how would you vote?
March 18th, 2008 at 10:10 amMushroom:
You could try pretending that God spoke to you and that God wants you to have a lot of wives of your own.
But learn from Joseph Smith’s mistake and skip the part about telling everyone else that God thinks their churches stink.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:11 amJust ate a samich and bought C puts.
LEH –> 5
March 18th, 2008 at 10:24 amIf BSC is going out at $2… what’s one reason we shouldn’t buy some puts on the thing?
I guess they can vote against it… but why not just own some calls too… people probably bought some calls at $4 yesterday, and bought some puts today, that would be what I would do If I had a time machine made of platonium with the spinners.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:27 amWelcome to the other side of the blade.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:27 amYour plutonium powered time machine needs a tune up. You said two days ago there was no way the market would be positive today.
Just buy SWC and PAL and move to Romania and milk some goats.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:27 amB/c its not going out at $2. That deal isnt signed sealed and delivered just yet
March 18th, 2008 at 10:30 amDepression declared “averted” by White House Spokeswhore. The new economic stimuli plan include free bottles of moonshine for every brokerage account opened + $600 for gambling purposes.
They are mulling over the idea of selling foreclosed homes for that $600 down, no interest loan for 3 years, at which point it will readjust to 500 bps over govy inflation rate stats.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:36 amOrlando Sentinel had article today about Lewis (hangs out in Islworth and Lake Nona in Orlando) losing over 1 Bill. Of course never mentioned that he was probably hedged up the wazoo.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/community/news/lakenona/orl-lewis1808mar18,0,6561995.story
March 18th, 2008 at 10:41 amha!, I’m “coming to the rescue” with my helicopter full of money. I hope you’re ready for my reign… or should I say, my rain of cash… the sky is falling, and it’s made of money….
Did anyone every see the cartoon “duck tales” where on some island they were willing to give just about anything for a single pop tab, and then they fought over it and had wars over it, and then the duck brough a few more over, and pretty soon the entire currancy was in pop tabs? Then that pilot duck flew over with his plane full of pop tabs dumping them all, and when the ducks came back a meal cost 30,000,000 pop tabs?
That’s my plan, only at least the pop tabs were made of something more valuable of paper…
Who wants to be a millionaire? You all will be!
Too bad a cheeseburger will cost you $700,000 at MC Donalds!
But no Worries… eventually I’ll either hyper inflate the dollar and replace it, or hike rates until every bank crashes and gets bought out by yours truely…
So a word to the wise… get your money in straight cash while you can, and own most of it in yen or swiss franc… then once cheeseburgers are $100, start to buy the dollar and we’ll all have a very happy meal
March 18th, 2008 at 10:43 amTC:
Telegraph article last night said Lewis wasn’t hedged.
Not on the BSC, anyway.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:44 amWord is that BSC is up because the bond holders are acquiring equity so they can get that pos sold.
Anyone have corroboration?
March 18th, 2008 at 10:44 amDennis Kneale vindicated. He’s been right all along. My hero!
Kudlow is #2.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:47 amNot hedged? Oh Oh!!
March 18th, 2008 at 10:47 amFLY has spoke, contrary indicatior enabled ….going opposite…long a strong, the bear is dead.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:55 amquit eating
March 18th, 2008 at 11:00 am“Go Eat a Sandwich”
That’s one of my favorites!
March 18th, 2008 at 11:11 amI figured it out guys, the market is blazing it up… hence the weird behavior, and them getting the stock munchies.
How do I know?
March 18th, 2008 at 1:04 pmDow is up 420… an obvious sign…
Plus the chart pattern is shapted like a MJ leaf
The market is high,
That’s genius.
-DT
March 18th, 2008 at 7:00 pm