Quarter Ends with Stupidity
Bulls ran stocks up, towards the end of trading, marking an end to a ridiculously bad quarter for most money managers.
All quarter long, in the face of obvious and easy to read headwinds, long biased managers got their heads handed to them. Frankly, I really do believe they are stupid people. I know a lot of people in the industry and I can tell you with certainty: 90% of money managers should not be running other people’s money.
Being one way all the time, whether bullish or bearish, defines ignorance.
It is not patriotic to be long stocks all the time, no matter what. Do you think the Government gives a fuck if you are long or short? Moreover, do you think someone will help you recover egregious capital losses, due to your “patriotic” long bias?
If you didn’t know by now, as in life, investing is good ol’ fashioned grenade tossing warfare. If you’re not careful, a [[SGP]], [[BSC]] or a [[MER]] grenade will blow off your arms and legs.
Why not pick up that [[LEH]] grenade and toss it back to the dumb fucker who is willing to pick it up?
That’s all the market is, tossing hand grenades back and forth.
During Q1, “The Fly” advanced, through capital gains, by more than 30%. Without a doubt, I nailed this market, like no one else—thanks to my “calculator brain” and “space alien magician” ways.
Going into Q2, I will redouble my “fuck China efforts,” via long [[FXP]] and short [[LFC]]. And, I will help facilitate the decline in ag related names, via long [[SMN]] and short [[MON]].
Finally, I will not short financials into weakness. Instead, I will wait for the bottom fishers to mark them up, then I will lean on them. My favorite financial shorts are: [[FED]], [[WM]], [[DSL]] and [[LEH]].
Off to crunch numbers.
UPDATE: You have to see this. Classic.
Thanks again for the perspective Fly. I tried to stay bullish for the first several weeks of the quarter and got my nuts handed to me.
I knew better. Never bet against a man with a time machine and calculator brain.
Thanks to finally following the lead of those smarter than me, I was able to finish the quarter up slightly. Good luck in Q2.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:09 pmpeoples [sic]
Nice quarter Fly. Thanks for all your guidance.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:20 pmWhat is up with the volume? Way low.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:29 pmIs that a bag of loot Uncle Sam is toting in your new banner?
March 31st, 2008 at 1:30 pmUnpatriotic AH traders not liking LEH dilluting it’s shares with the offering… bummer.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:41 pmLEH taking it up the ass
March 31st, 2008 at 1:45 pmOr maybe those unpatriotic types don’t like: Lehman Brothers: Moody’s downgrades some Lehman XS Alt-A deals
Man, the financials are just a license to make money on the short side.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:46 pmSo, did he get that iced latte?
March 31st, 2008 at 1:46 pmGreat analogy for these times in the market.
Congrats on your killer qtr.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:46 pmMR:
LEH down $2 AH …. cover now and you will have victory over Fly on this one, no?
March 31st, 2008 at 1:52 pmThis is completely off topic but I found it (inexplicably) in the “add’l reel” roll below that little comedy clip Fly just posted.
If any of you saw the Superbowl broadcast this last February, you may remember “the Catch” and perhaps even remember how somnambulant Joe Buck was in announcing the play. I was like, “Hey Fucknutz, that was just the greatest play in Superbowl history, what’re you a fucking baseball anouncer?”
Anyway, this clip features the great (if sexually deviant) Marv Albert’s call on the play, and well, I just had to share —
March 31st, 2008 at 1:53 pmDidn’t I read recently that Brad Hintz said LEH is the best capitalized investment bank? And now they’re selling stock.
Uh oh.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:06 pmIt must be my low eyeQ [sic]… but what the f*@K does “[sic]” mean? I’m seeing it everywhere now!
March 31st, 2008 at 2:10 pmThat’s because of the “DEMAND” for it.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:11 pmLEH stock looks toppy, up at these lofty levels. Let’s sell some!
March 31st, 2008 at 2:19 pmfly-
i found this portion of your post particularly illuminating:
“That’s all the market is, tossing hand grenades back and forth.”
from now on, when people ask me how the market works, i will offer that quote as the explanation.
funny thing is, the more you think about it, the more dead-nuts-on it really is.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:20 pmEven though I’m a goat guzzler (the 0.1% exception kind), in Q1 my portfolio got a
Junior Kickstart
March 31st, 2008 at 2:21 pm“sic” is Latin… a designation only understood by “men of letters”.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:29 pmHowever if you must, you may learn more here, ad oculos.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sic
Now disce aut discede, my man.
Omnia dicta fortiora si dicta Latina!
I get up for 5 fricken minutes after close and LEH does a swan dive to sub 35’s and recovers by the time I get back. That was a very expensive few minutes. DAMN THEM, DAMN THEM ALL TO HELL! OK I feel better now.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:55 pmNice post Fly, I like the hand grenade analogy. Playing on Wall Street truly is like trying to navigate a mine field.
March 31st, 2008 at 3:16 pmGive me your fucking money.
March 31st, 2008 at 4:06 pmFly can you respond to this:
JIM CRAMER: Lehman May Have Outwitted Shorts
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_newtsc/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10410052.html
Lehman’s (LEH - commentary - Cramer’s Take) a killer. Didn’t want to see it. But then the more I thought about it, if priced with the right hands, this $3 billion piece of paper might be able to stem all the undercapitalized talk, especially if oversubscribed by plain vanilla. And my sources say it is three times oversubscribed already.
The money would take away the principal call of the shorts: that there isn’t real capital there.
If there are no convertible arbs in the deal — and they says they aren’t — and there are no shorts in the deal — and they say they aren’t, then Dick Fuld will have done it again: beaten the shorts at their own game.
March 31st, 2008 at 4:59 pmMethinks Jimmah doth protest too much.
“Three times oversubscribed” my left testicle.
Unless the Fed is “subscribing” to 2.6x of it.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:05 pmJake, its 3 times subscribed by the fed and shorted by the others.
On another note: BREAKING NEWS!!! How the fuck do you have a fucking depression yet you can’t buy a fucking Nintendo Wii anywhere because they are sold out.
http://static.sky.com/images/pictures/1665632.jpg
Fucking people are idiots.
Case in point when idiots are talking about their food stamp debit card:
“They should be refilling it in the next three or four days,” Liepnieks says. At times, he admits, he and friends bargain with owners of the smaller grocery shops to trade the value of their cards for cash, although it is illegal. “It can be done. I get $7 back on $10.”
Well fucking A, who wouldn’t trade their card for a 30% loss, sounds like a fucking great deal to me.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:26 pmDoes Maria Bartiromo work for Lehman? WTF! Yeah Maria, its great that Lehman was able to raise 3B in this market (even though they just came out earlier and said that they have more than enough capital)I’m sure that Lehman had no choice but to issue more debt to deleverage their balance sheet (makes sense) because of those nasty rumormongering short sellers.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:41 pmFly and team nice upgrade. Like driving a Lexus. Fuckers.
March 31st, 2008 at 6:22 pmKC- I did a post just for you. Its about three posts down, now.
March 31st, 2008 at 6:42 pmShed- would it be cool if I made it my screensaver?
March 31st, 2008 at 7:33 pmThat is fantastic!
Plus Fly used the word scatologic in that thread.. I want to know one person who didn’t have to look that one up?
Sure KC!
It seems that Fly and Jeremy have locked me out of my own blog (indavertently, I’m sure…or, it could be my own doing). As soon as get let back in, I’ll get a post up.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:19 pmOf course Fly knows what “scatological” means.
Fer Christmas sakes, KC, that’s him!
March 31st, 2008 at 9:15 pmGapster, get a clue. Welfare retards have a very strong incentive to trade $10 of approved food (all that they can buy with food stamps) for $7 of cash that they can buy booze, crack, cigs, etc, with.
And it’s no freaking “loss” to them, because it’s a fucking handout in the first place, dammit!
Bring on President Obamessiah!
March 31st, 2008 at 9:17 pmJake: Good point.
April 1st, 2008 at 8:15 ammrkcbill, No one who knew what scatologic means without looking it up would dare admit it.
April 1st, 2008 at 9:36 am