Special Emergency Message From Your Governmentby The Fly on April 1st, 2008 at 9:27 pm |
Buy the banks or we’ll kill you.
Hank Paulson, U.S. Government Bank Bailout Department, Goldman Sachs
UPDATE: Even though I believe technical analysis is the “special reserve” ambrosia for the ignorant and laziest sort of investor, Senor Woodshedder has done an excellent job reading the tea leaves.
Read his recent missive here.
ibc turning into financial conspiracy website - you must be reading jeffs website for tips
April 1st, 2008 at 9:40 pmFuck you Hank. You commie bastard.
April 1st, 2008 at 9:43 pmI didn’t post that shit, the Government did.
April 1st, 2008 at 9:45 pmHank Paulson, U.S. Government Bank Bailout Department, Goldman Sachs
Great! LOL
April 1st, 2008 at 9:48 pmAs I gaze at the powerful energy field emitted by his cranium, I must admit that I feel a slight urge to load up on UYG tomorrow AM, up to my available buying power.
April 1st, 2008 at 9:50 pmLove it! The Paulson cartoon is classic.
April 1st, 2008 at 9:53 pmSo that’s what happened to Lex Luthor!
April 1st, 2008 at 9:54 pmwonder what helicopter ben will do to the mkt tomorrow. any thoughts?
April 1st, 2008 at 10:18 pmBuy The Banks and China or Die.
Richard Bove is a Rock Star!
April 1st, 2008 at 10:37 pmNote to all China bears (myself included):
(note that this think-tank is basically part of the government)
Or maybe it just means people think it’s overvalued? And I like this little bit at the end:
I’m shocked, simply shocked to learn of this!
Anyway, is this a signal that the (government-blessed, I’m sure) decline in Chinese stocks may be coming to an end? Inscrutable bunch, those Chinese.
April 1st, 2008 at 10:40 pmAsia is taking the baton from the US market meltup/bear bbq
April 1st, 2008 at 10:53 pmYeah, that ought to help their inflation problems… asset inflation.
April 1st, 2008 at 11:03 pmgotta buy some SKF at 100… then again, if the market gets retarded, it could be another month before it pulls back or slows down.
April 1st, 2008 at 11:07 pmSell in May and go away?
jj revealed:
http://www.fox19.com/Global/story.asp?S=8083860&nav=menu63_2
April 1st, 2008 at 11:12 pmI for one, embrace our new banking overlords and welcome any indecision that “bank” might bring
April 1st, 2008 at 11:13 pm“HEARD ON THE STREET” it has been rumoured by a well-qualified source that a certain individual, aka The Fly, has been in discussion with CNBC to either join the Fab Four @ Fast Money or team-up with Cramer in a two man show. Developing.
April 1st, 2008 at 11:51 pmExcellent color photo of Hank “Daddy Warbucks” Paulson.
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:00 amWolfie –
Thanks for a new weapon in the arsenal. Specifically:
Go fuck a picnic table!
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:53 amStay away from the SKiFfles or I will force you into a financial tap out.. You will only lose as i have unlimited tricks up my sleeve, including the ability to over-subscribe to each and any offering my bretheran shall put forth.
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:12 amI have spoken,. and bought,. and spoken some more.
prediction: Fly will soon unveil sweeping changes in analysis; shift to positive stance. Will announce the ibc four horsemen: long financials, long China, short treasuries, long dollar. Replaces scurrilous ripped-off golden critter with new worship symbol: the Golden Ben. Declares recession trade is passe, inflation trade is in. Announces that a conspiratorially engineered federally mandated simulated economic recovery is “pretty much as good as a real one”. Rolls out new ibc banner motto: “fuckit, go long”.
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:57 amMarc Faber on CNBC Asia.
Might as well watch, while throwing flaming darts at the world.
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:14 amGet some sleep, fucker.
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 amhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kujWSIFoe94
The cows get ready to go shopping for shares. Tuesday summed up.
update.. did Dr. Mark call the bearded clam a drunk again?
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:29 amFutures setting up perfectly for another rally today.
This article is the reason the markets will be up big over the next 2 trading days.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/washington/02housing.html?hp
Dont discount the news
Going up…..
April 2nd, 2008 at 5:36 amhttp://money.cnn.com/2008/04/02/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm
April 2nd, 2008 at 6:19 amPeter Eavis tries to spoil the punch at Paulsons ‘Buy the Banks or we’ll kill you’, party.
HEARD ON THE STREET
Skunk at the Bank Party
Danger Still Lurks
In Balance Sheets
While Stocks Soar
By PETER EAVIS and DAVID ENRICH
April 2, 2008; Page C2
Everything indicates that financial stocks have bottomed. Except bank balance sheets.
Bank stocks soared Tuesday, buoyed by UBS AG’s announcement that it was taking $19 billion of write-downs on debt securities in its first quarter and that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had raised $4 billion from selling convertible preferred shares.
While large, the UBS write-downs were perceived by many investors to be the last batch of gigantic losses stemming from mortgage-related bonds. And investors liked that Lehman, burdened with around $90 billion of assets vulnerable to write-downs, found it relatively easy to raise money.
There are other persuasive reasons to be bullish on bank stocks. The biggest is the Federal Reserve’s supply of cheap loans to stressed brokerages, which can prevent another brokerage’s falling victim to a deadly liquidity squeeze as Bear Stearns did. And some investors are concluding that bank stocks look cheap, going by estimates of what banks may be able to earn two to three years from now when a putative recovery has taken place.
But all of that glosses over the ugliness of balance sheets and the damage that could be done by mounting bad-loan costs and higher-than-expected write-downs from assets that might not have been marked down enough.
“You get these bear market rallies, and they can be pretty sharp,” said Sean Ryan, financial-companies analyst at brokerage Sterne Agee. “This triumph of hope over experience occurs every few weeks — and then there’s another leg down for financials.”
The next leg down could come when banks start reporting first-quarter results later this month.
The total tally of financial institutions’ credit-related write-downs now stands at about $215 billion, thanks to Tuesday’s write-down projections from UBS and Deutsche Bank AG.
With the loss tally having swelled to such a large number over the past three quarters, it is tempting to believe that they will be much smaller in coming months. And for some banks this will be the case.
However, analysts are getting nervous about Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., which could report worse-than-forecast write-downs in the first quarter. In recent weeks, analysts have repeatedly slashed their profit estimates for both firms, and many are now forecasting each will a post first-quarter loss.
The pain is likely to come from some of the usual subprime-related culprits as well as other assets whose values are increasingly under stress, like leveraged loans and commercial real-estate loans.
Collateralized debt obligations, which already have cost banks tens of billions of dollars, are likely to force Citigroup to take another $12 billion hit in the first quarter, while Merrill is likely to take a $2 billion write-down, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst William F. Tanona.
Large first-quarter losses may mean that Citigroup and Merrill “may need to raise additional capital in coming months,” Mr. Tanona said. Citigroup has pocketed about $30 billion in new capital since the subprime meltdown started, and Merrill has raised nearly $13 billion since December.
Mr. Tanona’s prediction, in a research note Tuesday, echoes a similar forecast by Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. who accurately predicted last fall that Citigroup would have to slash its dividend. Citigroup executives say she was “right like a broken clock” with her dividend call, and they deny that Citigroup will need more capital.
“There really is no need” for Citigroup to raise capital, a person familiar with the matter said. The company is in a “very strong liquidity position.”
One big reason financial stocks are rallying is that investors have liked moves by banks and brokerages to bolster their balance sheets. For instance, UBS plans to sell $15 billion of shares to shore up its cushion, and investors cheered Lehman’s capital increase. In particular, right now, investors are supportive of any move that reduces “leverage,” a yardstick that shows how much borrowing a bank has done to fund the asset side of its balance sheet. Selling shares can reduce leverage.
“The issue everyone is focused on is leverage,” said Douglas Sipkin, brokerage analyst at Wachovia Capital Markets. Lehman’s sale of preferred shares was an encouraging sign that the financial system is in the process of reducing leverage, Mr. Sipkin said.
However, it will take huge efforts for brokerages — and some banks, which are far less leveraged — to cut debt to the sort of level that would give investors comfort.
For instance, Mr. Sipkin estimates that Merrill Lynch’s leverage ratio — how many times assets exceed equity — was 29.7 times after recent capital increases. That is above its peers.
Reducing leverage is difficult right now because it means selling assets in difficult markets. And it can dilute existing shareholders if large amounts of new stock are issued. And leverage climbed to stratospheric highs in the boom time, so bringing it down could be tougher than some investors think.
April 2nd, 2008 at 6:55 amruh roh … Fly watching Marc Faber … oh how the mighty have fallen
April 2nd, 2008 at 7:04 ami’m not a conspiracy theorist but that documentary called the money masters on google video is seeming more true everyday god damn
federal reserve always meddling in the free markets
eff helicopter ben
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936&pr=goog-sl
April 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 amHey, nice traffic spike yesterday fuckasaurus.
Clearly, when my blog is active and online, you benefit.
Top referrer indeed.
Send money.
-DT
April 2nd, 2008 at 8:57 amHe approves of our undertakings
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June 8th, 2008 at 4:01 am