More Good News For the Good Guys
For the record, I am not short [[MOS]]. In an odd twist of genius, I covered it all, below $95—a few weeks ago.
If you’re a bull, you have to be fucking thrilled with today’s non-farm payrolls. Think about it.
Who gives a shit about U.S. jobs, when there are plenty being created in China? After all, the U.S. stock market is no longer dependent on the U.S. As a matter of fact, big companies, like [[KO]], [[PEP]], [[CL]] and [[CAT]] urinate on the U.S., while taking advantage of the “global growth story.”
Fast forward ten years, the whole country will be one big “shanty town,” but [[X]] will be at an all-time high, thanks in large part to the wonderful emergence of China.
Regarding steel stocks:
Is anyone remotely interested in knowing why they are raising prices? I guess people think it’s just another “global growth play,” right?
How about sky rocketing iron ore and coking coal prices? Does any of that shit resonate with you?
As you can see, “The Fly” is a very sore loser. He is not pleased with recent losses, including his inevitable defeat in the Final Four contest.
Taking a step back, I can tell you, it is natural for the markets to rip higher in April, following an abysmal first quarter. Go ahead and look back at your stupid charts. I’ve already done the leg work.
However, typically, these April respites do not last. I would bet my head, that by May 11th, the market is lower than where it is today.
If the market were efficient, they’d meet today’s payrolls number with a fucking mountain of sell orders. However, instead, the bulls are running around, high on excess cocaine, acting like a hungry mountain lion on the floor of the exchange, just biting people’s arms off and shit.
Bad guy UPDATE: [[FED]] to zero, motherfuckers.
Bad news? What’s that? Is that like when the Fed orchestrates a take over of an IB? Is that bad news?
Or housing cratering? bad news? Nah, good news! More affordable housing!
Employment pukes? Bad news? Nah, lower wage inflation!
Oil rocketing? Bad news? Nah, its just the weaker dollar, which mean more exports!
April 4th, 2008 at 10:12 amCostanza time.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:16 amShorting Cubes here (again) at 45.61. Stop at 45.90.
FED is “totally fucked.” (look at a long term chart, why dontcha?)
That is all.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:19 amwhat bulls
April 4th, 2008 at 10:20 amCalvin — who or what is “Minute Maid?”
Is that Brucie/Jucie??
Also — you’re killing me withe the “Allie” conundrum from the other day… I must’ve read that book five or six times, and I swear there was nothing about Caulfield’s bro’s school (although, to cma, I have not “rechecked” either).
April 4th, 2008 at 10:22 amThe Fly wins again.
Seven of past ten years, the month of April is up an average of 1.77%.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:24 amHoly shit, FED is through $25!!
Chart damage of “Hiroshima” like proportions!
Fly (and Jake) wins!!
(If he didn’t cover, I mean)
April 4th, 2008 at 10:25 amDid you know, China’s unemproyed popuration is rarger than entire USA popuration?
We chuckre, not raugh, at this statistic.
Okay, we actuarry raugh, when nobody is rooking.
Seriousry, rearn Mandarin, fuckers. Make 2027 invasion easier.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:29 amLEH acting well. Just saying.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:31 amMVIS is taking off.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:31 amSeriously, I will NEVER cover FED. There isn’t any more stock to borrow. So, I’m going with the hail Mary approach on this one, all the way to zero.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:33 amdie brokers die—–kick the spy off a cliff
April 4th, 2008 at 10:36 ammeh. everyone knew the jobs data was going to be abysmal. none of this action today is surprising. the mexicans will be accused of taking the white man’s jobs, and we’ll continue business as usual.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:43 amgap,
April 4th, 2008 at 10:43 amIf MVIS gets back to a 3 handle, the recession is over. Toke-man said so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNLHQVd06Ps
April 4th, 2008 at 10:43 amMVIS is at a huge resistance level here, a break through could cause it to fill a lot of the gap.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:46 amFly (my stock picking hand-capped friend),
I concur that the steel price increase is very bad for the steel industry in the long term.
Look it people, if you took Econ 101 in college, you would know that price increases (not to mention a fuckin 60% in RIO) reduces demand. Simple supply/demand shit… If that theory didn’t apply, then why the fuck wouldn’t the ARABS raise oil to $200? Ahh…because it distort long-term demand.
On the commodities front, I have been speculating theories as to why in a global slowdown they are ripping higher; the answer…INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS. If people expect higher prices in the future, they will hoard as much good as they can NOW (anybody seen the chart of RICE?)! Only, later to have demand crash…aka BUBBLE…
Anybody has any other theories? If you say China, I will have you shot.
FYI… FL,Y you are SHORT MOSAIC via SMN, just to let you know!
Have a great day! Cheers!
April 4th, 2008 at 10:47 amAris — cynical much? Someone said it here the other day — the way you’ll know the recession is real is when the Mex start moving back. It’s happening brothah, no more construction jobs for one thing.
And someone linked to this video which is full of laughable conjecture and ahistorical “dates” (Bin Laden was in Afghanistan in 1979? Read a book, stupid fux, he was still lap dancing in London at that time).
All that said, I think the beats are fantastic!
April 4th, 2008 at 10:49 amI test tlove Mahty McFry’s tie machine an da fewtcha say unemproyment in US go to zelo.
China open up moah prants in US fo manufactchua of tlinkets to seiw back to lich Chinee peepo.
Ship rots of wokkahs to states with housing clisis, rike Carifoahia. Exchange unemproyed wokkahs in US to wok as lestaulant wokkahs an lickshaw dlyvers in Shanghai.
Rurn Mandalin amelican yankees!
April 4th, 2008 at 10:53 amI’m selling my LNN position when CNBC gets their grubby fucking hands on it. Please someone let me know if you hear them talk about it. I watch CNBC for about 30 minutes in the morning. The rest of the day I watch AMC classic movies and FOX news on mute.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:54 amThere goes LEH. Shorts under SEC pressure IMO. Gotta cover and look innocent.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:54 amThe US Federal Reserve has sent staff into some of Wall Street’s biggest firms and its New York branch is gathering evidence on key traders’ activities as America’s central bank raises its scrutiny of risk to an unprecedented level.
Fed staff have set up shop in Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Bear Stearns to monitor their financial condition just days after Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, proposed that the Fed become the financial industry’s “risk czarâ€.
This is the first time in more than a decade that the Fed has put staff in securities firms and is a response, in part, to its decision to extend to investment banks the “discount window†of cheap loans traditionally offered only to the commercial banks. The Fed argues that if it is to act as lender of last resort to the securities firms, it should keep a closer eye on their activities.
The move comes as the central bank’s New York branch separately compiles a list of names and numbers of key traders in specific, esoteric securities such as auction rate preferred securities. These obscure instruments can be traded only at auctions and demand for them has virtually evaporated in recent weeks.
A senior US mutual fund executive, whom the Fed has approached, said: “They are looking in every corner to understand every esoteric financial product — who its traders are, who holds the most, whether its market is liquid and how great the losses could be. They are approaching people like me to find the key players in particular securities and then contacting them to find out the details. I have never heard of that being done before.â€
The Fed will use the information to ascertain how effective the measures it has taken so far have been, where in the financial system the biggest dangers lie and how best to curb them. Its action includes a 3 percentage point cut in the base rate since last August and a reduction in its discount window lending rate.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:57 amMVIS reversal will be confirmed at 2.75 intraday. A run to 3 breaks a double top. No resistance until 4.75. Gap is right.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:58 amFuck Lehman
April 4th, 2008 at 11:00 amlol, jake, i’m as cynical as it gets. i often hang around the dmv on random days to see how many mexicans are there. there’s still quite a bit of construction going on in my area, so the spanish-language license exams are still in demand. we’re about 8-12 months behind everyone else, however, so i fully expect that to change by the end of this summer.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:02 amNEWS ALERT FROM LAST YEAR!
“replacing the letter L with the letter R is not funny”
April 4th, 2008 at 11:03 amWrong again, Big Mike.
This is SMN’s holdings:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:03 amAIR PRODUCTS CHEM APD 3.01
ALCOA INC AA 4.8
Djusbm Swaps N/A 10.62
DU PONT E I DE NEM DD 6.34
FREEPORT MCMORAN B FCX 5.63
MONSANTO COMPANY MON 8.03
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG NEM 3.15
NUCOR CP NUE 2.43
PRAXAIR INC PX 4.09
DOW CHEMICAL DOW 6.04
Minute Maid is short LVS, as I am. We threw out JFK in fifth form for poor academic performance. We used to have standards.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:04 amChopper Ben,
April 4th, 2008 at 11:05 amThe Fed has been asleep at the wheel since Alan G. and are now blaming the folks they were supposed to monitor. It’s not entirely your fault.
Holy shit Ben, is that thing real?
Please post a link.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:05 amJake: Yes that is true, one of my friends confirmed (he works at one of the firms). They are pulling phone call logs too. Yes conversations as well.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:08 amWow. We are now a police state.
I wonder if the Fed is going in with armed guards?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:08 amCalvin — JFK went to Milton Academy, (in Maaahhhsachusetts) I thought??
Or was that some other rotgut Kennedy I’m thinking of?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:08 amMOS and POT have been the ticket. I guess people want to eat this year.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:09 amGaps, that is fucked with a capital “F.”
What’s Benji gonna do, get himself an “X-desk?”
April 4th, 2008 at 11:09 amBTW:
What is the use of the SEC?
They must be on a vaca.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:09 amGunnels:
You going to haf to righten up if you wanna be taken seliolously hele.
Ilonic, no?
Har! Har! Har! Har!
April 4th, 2008 at 11:11 am^^^
That is funny.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:12 amEliot Spitzer will be the new “risk czar” of NY. He’s blackmailing Ben (Client #3) and Hank (Client #4) for the job.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:13 amThey are completely setting up shop in there and yes people are being told by risk managers to steer clear of their high profile shorts. This is gonna fuck my LEH short, faggots.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:14 amAs a non-bulge bracket operator, Fly, you ought to know this already:
The SEC, NYSE, FINRA, whomever spends 99.8% of it’s time smacking down “little guys” it knows will not put up a lot of resistance to their extortionist ways while kissing the ass and living in fear of the bulges.
They will never be out in front of any major problem in the markets, as they are corrupt to the core, and those that are not corrupt are the leftovers from St. John’s Law School who could not land a job with the US or State’s Attorney General’s office.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:14 amHe spent a year trying to better himself in a rigorous academic environment. Since it did not work out, it is not well known, but fact.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:15 amDon’t know if Chivas is around but…
This looks like “make or break” for the Trannies again, here… major longer term resistance at the 5020 line, and my crudely drawn “recent resistance” triangle tracking the recent highs and the uptrend that started 3/31 both meet at right around 5018.
If it busts through there, I believe we are in for some bull par-tay, I’m sad to say.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:18 amJake:
I couldn’t agree with you more.
All FINRA is concerned with is AML laws. They’re just looking to find some new terrorist money, while GS bankrupts BSC.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:18 amUnwinding of risk, i.e. commodities, derivatives and whatnot. Boring Dow stocks go higher.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:19 amI was offered a job at the SEC office in Cleveland, Ohio when I left law school. I wanted to be in enforcement in D.C. but they offered Cleveland reviewing the K’s and Q’s, etc. I said forget it.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:22 amSMN is getting to dangerous levels from technical standpoint, what should I do?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:23 amCalvin — that’s gotta be Taft then. Choke Me Rosemary in the Hall is rigorous only in it’s pricing of various coca byproducts.
I guessed that one already and you left me hanging.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:26 amhttp://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3678053.ece
Didn’t think you’d find that story in a US paper, now did you?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:27 amHey Fly, class up this site and rent Rodman.
rentrodman.com
“Not since Scott Baio has there been a more in-demand man by starlets in Hollywood than Rodman. Dennis came from humble beginnings and struggled scoring chicks growing up, so he’s offering private, one-hour dating consultations to regular guys like you that will yield panty-dropping results for $125″.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:27 amTC — no disespect intended. One of my roommates works for the SEC right now, and they are literally Harvard Law School compared to the washed-out embittered and “never-beens” at FINRA (which used to be NYSE and NASD separately until they merged, the NYSE personnel being the bigger group of retards, and I mean that in every sense of the word).
April 4th, 2008 at 11:29 amBig Mike
no need to over think this:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:34 amIt is China (as well as India and other emerging markets) thats fueling rising commodity costs, though speculation by degenerate hedge fundies is probably adding (perhaps a lot) of fuel to the fire.
While global growth is currently slowing, it hasn’t stopped. Countries like China and India are still expected to grow by 8%-10% this year, and still have an insatiable appetite for commodities.
Jeezum, we still carry our reputation from those days. I will tell you that we only lost the president of the judiciary council in that sordid affair as well as the presidents of the sixth and fifth form. The other twelve people only held minor student body offices. Is that really so bad?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:35 amJake: No problem. I also turned down a clerkship at the US Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans and ended up with a firm in Miami doing Real Estate. It was boring but profitable (for the partners only). At least I know how to read a HUD closing statement. Ha Ha.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:40 amI fucking admit it ok, I am not smart. Fuck I have been dead fucking wrong on Materials and Ag. They can go up 500% in 1 year without affecting the economy. Fuck it, anyone can pay $30 for a Domino’s pizza or $5 for a gallon of gas. Corn, fuck it pay $10 per tortilla, no problem. FUCK FUCK FUCK
April 4th, 2008 at 11:42 amJust tell me this, how can X go to 200 any faster? There has got to be a way that it can go up faster? Fuck I will pay $2000 for a 6 inch piece of steel, everyone can right?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:45 amCalvin — if you were there at the time, you probably know my buddy, tall Italian kid (hoopster), dad was a perfessor at a CT state school?
April 4th, 2008 at 11:46 amMish has a nice write up on unemployment today:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/unemployment-soars-jobs-collapse.html
April 4th, 2008 at 11:48 amHoly shistola, FED under $24…. next stop, $20, $16, $12… and then…. “the black hole of death.”
April 4th, 2008 at 11:49 amSoon, it will cost 1 billion dollars to put down 100 ft of concrete, thanks to Chindia.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:49 amGap:
I’m not saying that current commodity price levels are justified given current supply and demand dynamics, just that commodity prices can continue to go up even if global growth is slowing.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:53 amPersonally I wouldn’t extrapolate commodity growth from the suppliers stock prices given all the speculation that exists now in the sector.
WallStreetLurker: Yes they can continue to go up but the consumer in no way can continue to pay up without major damage to credit. That said, short X at 138.50 and long SMN at 33.96. I may regret it fighting the trend but I believe they are way overbought / oversold. We will see. No way I am paying $20 for a Domino’s pizza, period.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pmthe retail clowns are back in town. 12.7 will be in the rearview mirror next week while shorts pretend they’re long at cocktail parties.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pmWall Street Lurker,
Are you at a Bulge, and are there SEC Lurkers lurking at your pad?
April 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pmOn the lighter side of life:
April 4th, 2008 at 12:04 pmJake,
to state the obvious, after yesterday’s claims numbers and today’s employment numbers this mkt seems to be discounting the end of the recesion for now. nightmare for the bears. in addition, we have positive seasonals that fly alluded to. even though we’re short term overbought, i think we go higher and if we discount bad earnings news coming up, watch out. if that turns out to be case, transports and q’s will lead imo. imo, we go higher.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:06 pmHank Paulson myself (Ben Bernake), and Jim Cramer, all wish to screw all financials over. We have now staged GS for a very nice run, so we could get it at a low price (142 was obviously an abberation), and set ourselves up for a nice run…
April 4th, 2008 at 12:10 pmhave a nice day
Short MER at 48 for a quick trade. Looks like there is plenty of resistance there.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pmGapping:
Not disagreeing with your overbought/oversold outlook.
I think that there is way too much speculation in the sector, and that prices have run way ahead of where they should be. What I was trying to say is that speculative money aside, prices for commodities can continue to rise in this period of deceleration in global growth.
Then again, what do I know about stock prices? My thesis is that negative real GDP growth, rising unemployment,rising inflation, and a precipitous drop in housing prices would portend a decline in stock prices. Seems I’m wrong.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:16 pmBoom –
We had a park like that going all through college. Not as sophisticated, but I know where they’re coming from.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:18 pmJake:
yes, and yes (though I havn’t seen them, my FI buddies say they are)
April 4th, 2008 at 12:18 pmI didn’t get any but all CROX needed was a downgrade to make a Costanza like 20% move. Go figure. Unfuckinbelievable. Whay’s next?
April 4th, 2008 at 12:35 pm