Putting Things into Perspective
It’s rather amusing to see long time bears, all of sudden, bullish on banks. Keep in mind, these same people thought the *true* break up value of [[CENX]] was $2.
The Dow is at 12,550. This is not a breakaway market, but a rally within a bear market.
I will say this over and over again, until I’m blue in the face: it is impossible for the market to sustain a rally, with oil at $115, Natty above $10 and food commodity prices at record levels.
None of the above is a result of pure demand, but inflation. Do what you like. I will stick to my guns, protect my positions, via long hedges and bank on gold as a stable source of funds.
We now have a situation where earnings expectations are elevated. Any misses, like [[GE]], will knee-cap the rally.
With regards to Ag:
Forget it. These stocks have gone parabolic. Eventually the sector will come crashing down, but not yet—most unfortunately.
Bottom line: It’s only a matter of time when investors realize the monumental headwinds in the way of growth.
As for the banks:
Buy them? Please. Their businesses will never be the same. Sell them into this rally.
NOTE: Every two weeks the market rallies 200-400 points in a day.
poor old HANS is on the fast train to craptown, even on an up 200 day.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:11 pmTicker ADZ and AGA
lets get our lean on
April 16th, 2008 at 3:15 pmBuying more POT AGU MON CF MOS VMI BG
April 16th, 2008 at 3:18 pmHow can i lose.
I am buying more X. It will never again go down. Its like MNCS
April 16th, 2008 at 3:26 pmWhy not buy MNCS?
April 16th, 2008 at 3:31 pmThe Nation is BK’d and the Banks/Investment Banks are INSOLVENT despite open “Windows”; TAF’S ; TSLF’S etc,,,,
The Floodgates/Spigots are wide open as Global Inflation rages!!
Hyperinflation?
You can Fuckin’ Bank [SIC] on it!!
April 16th, 2008 at 3:32 pmThe volume for yesterday and todays rally have been light as usual when compared to the selling. Nonetheless I am getting my sphincter torn apart in a most unpleasant way. The action in the Ags is spectacular but as Fly stated parabolic means doom.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:32 pmthinking about getting long some SRS - seems glaringly obvious, to me anyway
i am thinking IBM will crush tonight, tomorrow will be another up day like today, and i can get SRS @ $85
thoughts?
April 16th, 2008 at 3:33 pmStop trying to figure out where the banks and ag are going. Just buy OIH watch BHI SLB RIG and HAL destroy earnings and then go home to burn the pile of money you made to save on fuel cost.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:33 pmI think tomorrow we consolidate todays move .. friday we give some back
some of these moves are egregious
April 16th, 2008 at 3:40 pmThis is nothing but a liars market…
April 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pmThis nothing but a liars market…
April 16th, 2008 at 3:43 pmso true it had to be said twice
April 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pmit won’t rally in comparrison to gold and commodities. Inflationary rallies will happen, and we could see break away inflationn in the near future, if you count that I think it could, but yeah, it’s just a little bounce while the bears get ready
April 16th, 2008 at 3:45 pmI am buying massive upside calls on MNCS and X. They both trade higher. How can I lose. I will mortgage my house to buy this and oil and all other commodities. Its the way to go.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:45 pmDo NOT be long going into the weekend.
You’ve been forewarned.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:48 pmJuice,
Nice “HUGE” call yesterday.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:49 pmSnark: Right on with AG. GRO up 16% just today.
Fly: Swooning dollar is causing Oil and Commodities to rise. Thank Helo Ben for the crash.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:49 pmbad news is no news since the mkt has developed a high tolerance for bedshitting news and has become foolish enough to believe the worst is behind us, and good news is market ripping news. in this mkt, anything positive will ride the mkt higher. i thnk, as high as 13,200-500 if there is more INTC-like tomfoolery. If IBM results/guidance are great, we’ll rip higher again tomorrow. i thik the bears need a string of positive events to fool low IQ people into thinking the recover is here and then BAM! when the next legs drop (credit cards, helocs, commerical loans, etc), the floor will fall from beneath us once again.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:49 pmThx Gramps … I’m out of 80% of my longs & am now a bit short here … Will be shorter tomorrow
April 16th, 2008 at 3:53 pmSo does SMN look like a good entry here? This is crazy. Tulips everywhere I look. By the way have you noticed that SMN has been in a major downtrend since its inception. Nice huh.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:53 pmSMN is good for a flip here .. should pay off by monday
April 16th, 2008 at 3:57 pmTerrific market call Juice.
Now give me back my time machine.
April 16th, 2008 at 3:58 pmI got in SMN at about 31.5 today and already feeling its wrath. Thanks Fly for bring this evil stock to my attention. Lets see how it goes.
April 16th, 2008 at 4:01 pmYou can have your time machine back Monday am … Doesn’t anyone think there could be Armaggedon, Monday morning?
Didn’t think so.
April 16th, 2008 at 4:05 pmJuice although I would love Armageddon to come real at this point real or financial, may I ask what makes you so sure that Monday is the day? And if you truly know this can you also check to see if I will be raptured?
April 16th, 2008 at 4:08 pmLooks like IBM beat. Damnit!
April 16th, 2008 at 4:09 pmSince I spend so much on gas, might as well hedge it with DIG.
April 16th, 2008 at 5:37 pmMarketRaider … maybe not Armageddon armageddon, but perhaps a down open like the $2 for BSC Monday open … which, btw, the futures low was printed before the open
anyways, wtf do I know !? but I will be putting my money where my mouth is .
April 16th, 2008 at 7:40 pm