Take Your Gains
Fuck horses. Don’t ever ask me any questions about them.
While stupid bitches on CNBC espouse exuberant bullish behavior, “The Fly” chuckles, not laughs, at them.
I’m joining the party on some retard names, particularly [[RACK]].
In addition, I am buying [[NOV]], like a Texan at a gun store.
Sometime this summer, the market will collapse, in record fashion. All of the lemmings are bidding up [[CLF]], [[X]], [[BIDU]], [[GWR]], amongst other “insane stocks,” as if they had no brains.
I understand the premise behind going long [[C]], [[BAC]] and [[WB]]. But, buying the “global growth story” after 100% moves is asking for trouble.
Case in point: [[CMI]].
Understanding the market is operated by a bunch of coked out malcontents will help you make better investment decisions.
For example: good news is great and bad news is better.
Case in point: [[FNM]].
At the end of the day, the market is just a myriad of emotions, clashing into one another. Don’t get too mad or too gleeful. All you need to know is the refiners will trade down to zero, as oil melts up to $400.
The refiners are the new airlines.
Do you view RACK as a buy and hold or a short term trade?
May 6th, 2008 at 3:54 pmEverything is ST.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:55 pmgeeze fly, you refer to “coke” alot lately…perhaps you have got yourself a small problem with da chach / yayo / schnizzle? Poor lad, sure it’s fun for the first 6 hours or so, but then after two or three days…uggg…
May 6th, 2008 at 3:56 pmdisagree, oil price is irrational, we’ve had supply worries for decades. it’s going to fall off a cliff, you don’t need as much oil when we are all slowing down. but as they say, market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
loading up on FXP, feels like 2000 all over again.
oh and POT is keeeeeeeling all of us. i need a trillion dollars to get my own attention.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:56 pmLook at WFT as well Fly.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:57 pmI think I sold you my NOV - hated it!
May 6th, 2008 at 3:58 pmI like WFT. But it’s too high.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:58 pmi guess i should be flattered.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:59 pm“Understanding the market is operated by a bunch of coked out malcontents will help you make better investment decisions”.
Couldn’t agree more, that’s great!
May 6th, 2008 at 4:07 pmspeaking of too high
… PETROHAWK loves coked out buyers!
go FLOYD!
HK 26.63 +2.12 (8.65%)
May 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pmI’m beginning to wonder how much of the price increase for steel and other materials will end up being the result of false signals due to the Bullwhip Effect.
I’d seen a piece long, long ago on the biz-school simulation that demonstrates the Bullwhip Effect. I didn’t remember much about it beyond the lesson it taught, but a little Googling revealed that it was The Beer Game.
Remember in 2005 and 2006 when housing wasn’t a bubble that could pop, because builders had not overbuilt like they had in the last housing bubble?
I think China will be at the end of a few of the Bullwhips in the global economy.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:29 pmThis mkt feels like last yr all over again - we keep moving up on crappy news - even though we know it is bad news - Last yr we all knew the sub prime junk would blow up - it just took time, this yr we all know that inflation must show up everywhere and impact spending and hence profits - but up we go - looks like you get on the train but be prepared to get off fast
May 6th, 2008 at 4:31 pmJust curious, I don’t understand energy very well, but how can refineries go to zero, and oil still go to $400… isn’t oil sold to the refineries? If no one could buy at a price where it’s profitable, wouldn’t that cause lower demand and cause oil to go down?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:32 pmOtts –
I thought the bullwhip went away with all the just-in-time, kaizan bullshit?
Perhaps what we’re seeing now is the effect of demand in a “just in time” environment?
Food for thought.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pmJake: Japan’s imminent domination of the world economy went away, but I think the bullwhip managed to survive the premature obituary.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:51 pmI know I’m going to regret it but I took profits in all my KBH positions today. It was the only thing saving me during this fucked up rally. I’m close to selling my TSO for break even on The Fly’s recommendation. I’ll be left sitting about 90% short. Somebody save me!
May 6th, 2008 at 4:54 pmthe refiners are the new airline stocks.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:53 pmCubs, man-up my little Chicagoan.
It’s not like you’re walking the Lake at 2:00 a.m. in the morning, or anything…
May 6th, 2008 at 7:05 pmHigh oil prices, through the creation of high demand and scarcity, are how the majors will drive independent refiners out of business, or into their arms for cents on the dollar.
There is more oil on God’s green earth than we can shake two sticks and a shamans rattle at.
Peak Oil theory is a farce perpetrated by Shell Oil in the 1970’s, in order for people like Bilderberg to exert worldwide control through oil. It’s still slightly worse than the modern day global warming theory, though losing steam to the newcomer.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:07 pmi used to work at a petroleum engineering firm. according to my former supers, there’s a lot more oil than we are led to believe. unscientifically, fossil fuels from (common) dead matter formed since 4 something billion years ago being used up in less than a century… right. it’s like coal, there’s tons of it, because it’s carbon-based, but BTU and ACI shooting to the moon along with FSLR due to our “energy crisis.”
the one thing left i want to know is… can the oil companies/speculators keep crude prices afloat, like how DeBeer’s did with diamonds, a carbon-based gem that is actually one of the most abundant gemstones on earth, by manipulating supply/demand? if only we knew.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:30 pm