A Spike in Natty Will Kill Peopleby The Fly on May 9th, 2008 at 2:14 pm |
Literally. See, people can go without gasoline. Lots of indigenous folk do not drive cars and rely on welfare for their food and shit. However, you start fucking with the price of natty, then you will see outright revolt amongst the poor kind.
Natty is used to heat homes. It is used to generate electricity. If it keeps going up, it will rape this country of all discretionary income.
I know a few independent natural gas drillers. “The Fly” has quite a few “Nat Vegas” players on his client roster. They (the drillers) know the spike in price is bullshit. Some of the bigger dogs were capping their wells, a few years ago, due to lack of demand. Now, all of a sudden, natty is printing $11.50?
What the fuck?
I will not fight this trend. It is beyond control. The spike in commodities is pervasive. It is infecting everything and it is too powerful to bet against.
With oil and natty up at these levels, you’d have to be fucking nuts not own energy stocks.
Currently, I own (ARD: 46.66 +4.95%), (NGAS: 5.73 +1.60%), (RIG: 131.71 +0.87%), (OMNI: 4.34 +11.57%), (IOC: 31.50 +3.14%) and (NOV: 77.63 +3.99%).
My watch list includes:
(GLBL: 9.21 +1.32%), (WFT: 39.04 +1.72%), (TRGL: 8.96 +2.17%), (FPP: 3.99 +3.37%), (FTK: 16.48 -2.94%), (FTI: 54.21 +1.92%), (EGY: 7.43 +2.91%), (MIND: 14.14 -1.53%), (CLHB: 78.23 +0.31%), (HP: 57.18 +2.51%), (RRC: 46.92 +2.24%) and ETF’s (GAZ: 51.04 +2.31%) and (UGA: 56.79 +4.95%).
NOTE: The yen is trouncing the dollar. Watch (FXY: 91.8834 +1.18%).
That was a great call in NGAS & NOV by the way.
The Fly is back (not that he ever left)
May 9th, 2008 at 2:25 pmDoes this mean DUG is dead?
-DT
May 9th, 2008 at 2:25 pmKill? Going into winter maybe, but kill now? Why Fly?
Dug is dead….left only for the quickest traders.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:28 pmThe oil spike that is affecting gasoline will also kill people that rely on heating oil.
I remember a winter in Boston when our 3-bed half of a two-family home used a full tank of oil (about 260 gallons) in a month. The place was only about 1200 sq. ft.
The people who lived in my area can’t afford to pay $1000+/month for heat.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:29 pmWait until the hurricanes hit, $20 Natty, $200 Oil
May 9th, 2008 at 2:30 pmWhat this means is; short the consumer via retail, their home, their financial institutions & go long the tool of their demise, soaring energy/commodities
Eventually this deadly toxin will kill the entire market & the global expansion will get derailed for a bit.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:30 pmelectricity.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pmFuck Natty
Fuck Crude
The demand destruction taking place will crater both.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:37 pmA spike in the US$ is a joke
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4632.html
May 9th, 2008 at 2:38 pmDriving through the Imperial Valley (elevation 10ft, temperature 110F) in Southern Cal, you can see numerous new housing developments without a single solar water heater on the roof. They are burning natural gas instead. Crazy.
The payback on solar hot water in that area is probably about 3-4 years if it is built-in at the time of construction, and you get to finance it as part of the mortgage. Nice. Savings are in after-tax dollars. Interest on the added cost of the system is paid in pre-tax dollars.
Meanwhile, the State of California is (or was, assuming future drastic budget cuts) spending hundreds of millions of dollars to subsidize photovoltaic panels that have a payback period of 20 years to never when installed on a residence.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:45 pmXOM broke beneath the 50 and 200 today…see if it holds…
May 9th, 2008 at 2:52 pmwhat about NGS?
May 9th, 2008 at 3:04 pmAlfred E. Neuman Says:
“…The demand destruction taking place will crater both.”
What are you talking about?
You short USO or something? What have I been telling you people for the past year and a half I’ve been posting on this blog?
Fly, keep MCF on you watch list as well.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:05 pmUNG is the best way to go. That’s how I’m playing it. LNG will level out the playing field across the world.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:07 pmThis is the weakest selloff ever, SKF pathetic and LEH up nicely. Consdireing dumping my SKF, anybody else holding?
May 9th, 2008 at 3:09 pmYes, WTF is with LEH?
May 9th, 2008 at 3:10 pmYou guys are retarded. LEH is down 6 straight points and you are worried about a .50 spike.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:12 pmFly, any opinion on EP?
May 9th, 2008 at 3:14 pmFly we expect your picks to go straight up or down with no interuptions.
And yes we are retarded hence why we rely on your picks, close this blog and VIX goes to 40.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:15 pmNOV is the place to be. i bet it becomes fly stock of the year. crude is going to spike until it’s/we’re dead. nat gas going to stay high. chk, apa, apc salivating. we’re going to skip straight to electric vehicles over the next 20yrs, and that means nat gas.
as always,
fuck POT.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:18 pmShed,
DVN is better.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:19 pm@Crude - not short USO
waiting for a blowoff day to short -Elevator down when the fast money rotates out.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:22 pmThanks Crude.
When you gonna start posting in the PG?
May 9th, 2008 at 3:22 pmNot worried, but the “Zombie Levitation” in LEH is highly unnatural, if you asked me…
May 9th, 2008 at 3:28 pmI am limited with work. However, on days like this I like getting involved obviously because this is what I like to watch day in and day out.
I may start getting into it (peanut gallery). It would be fun to have a little contest to see who can call a top in the price of crude oil.
If my numbers are correct, $138ish is where refiners cannot support to buy crude if the local gasoline cracks in all the pads start to compress on this trend. They will cut runs substantially causing an “elevator down” in price. However, I’m not calling that, yet. I know better to jump in front of a freight train.
Maybe the winner can get a package of finely ground bear meat from the best meat joint here in Houston, Pete’s Fine Meats. http://www.petesfinemeats.net/
May 9th, 2008 at 3:38 pmMake Believe Gasoline Prices
This morning Shell Regular at 9am: 3.59
This afternoon, same station, at 2:30pm: 3.69
We are all fucked.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:39 pmCrude, sounds like a great idea.
FLY! Yo, McFly! Can we run another contest!???
May 9th, 2008 at 3:41 pm@ crude - The peace dividend from anticipation of pullout from Iraq should crater crude price.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:50 pmCrude,
I just drooled on my keyboard over that pic.
Love the idea, maybe in th PG.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pmYeah, another contest! Oil to a zillion. Oh wait, I gotta drive 2,000+ miles in a couple weeks. Somebody do something. I’m doomed.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:03 pmNat Gas will keep running.
Solar power is years and years away.
The thought this country can run on wind power is absurd. Granted there is what people are calling a “wind corridor†across the Midwest but how are they going to get the power generated by that wind to the east coast and Cal. where everyone actually lives?
Ethanol is done.
Crude is ungodly expensive so all we are left with is Nat Gas which is cheap and we have a ton of in this country. I am long UNG, APA and CHK.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:15 pmDoesn’t anyone here know about BZP? check it out. Ecuadorian oil is the shiz-nit.
May 10th, 2008 at 11:52 pm