Get The Fuck Off My Blogby The Fly on May 13th, 2008 at 6:44 pm |
I’m back. Moreover, I do not appreciate shit from “oldmantrader” grabbing the headlines. How egregious.
While I was away, the market made a nice comeback, with the exception of the banks.
Listen to me: either the banks are buys or sells. You cannot have it both ways. It doesn’t matter that (C: 17.14 -2.00%), (BAC: 28.55 -2.53%) and (MER: 23.6201 -3.24%) have raised a gagillion dollars, due to their writedowns. It doesn’t matter because those “writedowns” will likely become “writeoffs.” Anyone who thinks they have it all figured out, due to past references, I am telling you now: you are naive.
Home prices have not bottomed. The underlying “collateral” behind all of the toxic paper is in depreciation mode. Therefore, it is fair to say the following will occur:
Banks will be forced to “writeoff” the bullshit paper on their sheets—instead of sticking a bandaid on the problem, via “writedowns.”
Banks will continue to raise capital, in a very dilutive way—pressuring equity prices lower.
Many thrift and regional banks will be closed, by the FDIC.
Now, that doesn’t mean some drunk stock trader can’t make coin in (RIMM: 129.7799 -0.38%) or (AAPL: 172.40 -1.96%).
Short the banks: that’s my position.
Aside from (SKF: 133.6095 +3.44%), I am short (LEH: 13.08 -4.73%), (MER: 23.6201 -3.24%), (DSL: 2.085 +8.03%), (WM: 4.0304 -1.70%), (FHN: 10.18 -2.21%) and (FED: 11.26 -5.06%).
As for long ideas:
If you do not have energy stocks in your bullshit accounts, you have no right or business managing real money. You’re better off paper trading and sending your fucking results to that queer Dinosaur, at the end of every day.
With oil above $125, I love (CLNE: 14.70 +0.20%), (NOV: 76.42 +2.37%), (ARD: 46.52 +4.63%) and (IOC: 31.30 +2.49%).
Finally, with dry bulk shipping rates through the roof, I may bag some trades in (NM: 9.58 -0.73%), (DSX: 28.81 -2.70%), (EXM: 32.75 -0.88%) or (PRGN: 14.593 -0.86%). I can’t buy into (DRYS: 72.84 -1.31%) or (GNK: 58.34 -0.71%) after their “balls on fire” run. Not for me.
Thoughts on SBLK ?
Think they are based out of Taiwan …. too expensive?
May 13th, 2008 at 6:59 pmFLY
What are your thoughts on the breakout of MRVL?
Is it too late to get into EXM and play it off the report for DSX tomorrow?
-HYBRID
May 13th, 2008 at 7:06 pmEgregious…
I don’t accept paper traders, by the way. I lost $14 today… that’s real money.
And you may think, “ha, what’s $14?” However, when it’s May and you’re on pace to maybe make $20gs for the year, $14 actually hurts.
It’s all about perspective.
-DT
May 13th, 2008 at 7:09 pmMr. Fly:
Welcome back.
The accompanying photo to your post obviously presages the next Big Thing to hit the Real Estate market:
$100,000 shipping container condos.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008805130314
May 13th, 2008 at 7:11 pmHoly crap did this site suck some serious ass while you were gone. These guys don’t have the talent to support a Starbucks bulletin board.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:13 pmI HATE MRVL.
There are a few stocks worth hating. MRVL is one of them.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pmI think you may have hit upon an innovative new investment strategy:
“Fade the Crickets.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:21 pmPS — I’m eyeing CLaMS again.
Shit looks shuckable here at “the turn” of $19.50.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:26 pmBut but but…Dick Bove said buying banks right now is once in a lifetime opportunity.
I actually bought 2,000 shares of Citi today…LONG! Banks aren’t going down AT LEAST for now; too much momentum. It’s like fighting Ags. Put a tight stop loss, and let it rip. I’m short brokers though.
Trade coal, Nat. gas to play the oil play; We’re going to $150; crazy short squeeze today in the oil pit.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:38 pmI’ve owned FDG since about $22. Purely an ennui play. Forgot I even had the stuff.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:42 pmHere we go again, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeW1nFsNgJpU&refer=home
Banks/Financials are a
Sad Sad City
May 13th, 2008 at 8:00 pmBOOYAH! stole your PRGN pick, and #8s’ SBLK, because I’m a fucker!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 10:52 pm