Fly’s Blogging Lesson Number Four of Five
May 15, 2008 – 7:49 pm
Make yourself known, by hook or crook.
Class dismissed.
NOTE: Tomorrow’s lesson will be detailed.
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Does that mean setting up multiple IDs under names like Broker A , Broker B, Broker C, The Fly, Ducati, Alphadawgg and have fake conversations with one another ?
May 15th, 2008 at 8:11 pmAre you handing out diplomas tomorrow? Online education at its best.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:11 pm“A couple of us tuned into Dexia’s conference call yesterday, looking for clues on HELOCs. We got plenty, and they were important. In February Dexia said the absolute worse case loss for their monoline subsidiary FSA was going to be $125 million. Yesterday, they added $195 million to that. The reason given on the conference call for the poor guidance is that the servicer on their wrapped HELOC portfolio, Countrywide, had such a backlog that FSA didn’t get the news that delinquencies were skyrocketing until very recently.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:26 pm“There is no doubt that US mortgage servicers are swamped right now, but I think there is a bigger story here, which ties in with BAC quietly announcing their HELOC loss estimates have gone up from a 2.0% to 2.5% range to ‘over 2.5%.’ Servicer backlogs could well be the reason why so many CEOs and CFOs are running around telling investors they are not seeing deteriorations in HELOC delinquencies.
“The truth is their data is wrong. The market has, obviously, taken the view that the worst of the writedowns are behind us, and if anything it’s now just a macroeconomic problem we face. I think that’s dead wrong. We’re now entering the phase where the macro impacts earnings, but also the stage where real cash losses start to hit the banks (subprime and Alt-A is primarily a mark-to-market issue, but HELOCs are going to be large, outright losses). Once WAMU, WFC, BAC and JPM start to get data through on how rapidly their HELOC portfolios are deteriorating, watch the losses pile up. I’m talking realised losses, not mark-to-market writedowns.
“I think there could be a bigger story as to why there is a backlog at Countrywide when it comes to getting HELOC data, and I strongly encourage readers to dig into that with all available shovels. For example, one might wish to phone management or investor relations people at monolines who have wrapped HELOCs and ask if lenders are accepting their first loss obligation on HELOCs. If not, why not?”
CAP,
You use my name like that in the same sentence with Ducati’s, and I’ll punch your hat off.
Then I’ll mudstomp it and hand it back, much to your chagrin.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:29 pmHey,
My bank just dropped the interest rate on my existing car loan from 6.00% fixed to 4.80% fixed, because I financed another car through them, also at 4.80%! 100% financing to boot!
I’m going to go out and buy another car!
They also want my HELOC transferred from my other bank to them and will charge me 75 bps less. Should I do it? I can’t do the math. Sombody hep me!
(Comment: how can the banks make any money if they’re doin’ this shit? Apparently, they’re not off the crack pipe yet.)
May 15th, 2008 at 8:34 pmBlogging lesson 4.5: Troll your readers with inflammatory posts and then get your panties in a bunch when they respond in like kind.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:44 pmLord of the Dark Matter, CFC has the crappiest documentation I’ve ever seen on any financial or legal transaction, and that’s saying something.
When the CFC rep showed up with paperwork to sign on our original mortgage loan, they had a person who passed away almost 16 years ago typed in as the co-borrower on the loan. F’n A, I had to contain myself from tossing the rep out of my house. We had to correct everything by hand. Gee I wonder if CFC was going to try and collect payments from a dead person?
I sometimes wonder if all the loans get recorded too. When BAC finally gets around to auditing this piece o’crap company, they’re going to find some stinky files. There’s no way that my situation was an exception.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:49 pmRates are down spreads are good. I have a couple of cars on my Heloc– that probably is the best way to go. My Heloc was 4.49 at BAC the with tax incentive that takes it down there.
But if I can get 4.8 on a couple of Ford’s I might do it. Was it a Local or Money Center? Thanks
May 15th, 2008 at 8:53 pmLocal bank for construction workers and homeless people.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:57 pmNice. Shit the banks here want 6% same as Oct 07.. Vultures.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:01 pmYou might try a credit union. Become a member. A credit union in my town is actually offering the same 4.80% rate on a new car loan, 100% financing for credit scores above 675.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:11 pmCFTC Reauthorization Act of 2008
May 15th, 2008 at 9:27 pmhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e338cc8-22ce-11dd-93a9-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
May 15th, 2008 at 9:39 pmWhy do I get the feeling that we will never get the real story from the banks? I believe Mr. Mortgage is telling the truth but I don’t think we will EVER hear or see what he is saying come to fruition. What do you guys think? Do you really think its all over? Is it straight up for LEH and WFC? I think I am more confused than ever. Fly what the fuck am I missing? What are we all missing? You always say fuck the banks but being short the banks is starting to fuck me.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:50 pmWhy is anybody with a brain and a dime borrowing money, taking out car loans or
May 15th, 2008 at 9:51 pmbuying ANYTHING on credit? My daddy said COLLECT interest, don’t pay it.
Chase just cancelled our 200k HELOC - unused. Our fucking loan is a paltry 130k - what a joke. Good think I don’t need the monopoly money.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:14 pmFrom Boomer’s article:
The European Central Bank on Thursday voiced its “high concern†at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets by using its liquidity scheme to offload more risky assets than it envisaged.
Yves Mersch, a governing council member, said the ECB was now “looking very hard at whether there is not a specific deterioration of collateral†which the central bank is accepting in return for funds.
Who do they think they’re fucking kidding here? Really? The innumerates? The sub 90 IQ folks? Who?
All this “Yves Mersch” (is that really his freaking name?) needs is the same costume as the guy from Casablanca so he can exclaim, “I’m shocked, SHOCKED, that there was inappropriate collateral traded in exchange for clean funds!”
May 15th, 2008 at 10:24 pmJason — shoot, I don’t even have a HELOC, imagine how silly I must feel.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:25 pmWhat’s a HELOC? Citibank said I could get one of these “HELOC” things and throw a party and be rewarded all thanks to my house. Damn a party for free? I should for sure do that. Or is that one of them Helicopters?
May 15th, 2008 at 10:36 pmA Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found that 76 percent of Americans think the government should do something to halt the falling dollar
Do you really think the average Joey BagoDonuts has any idea about the falling dollar and its implications?
May 15th, 2008 at 11:39 pmthe dollar won’t rise again until oprah says so.
May 15th, 2008 at 11:43 pmThis is completely fucked up.
Glad we got all that nasty lobbying out of Congress with the switch of party leadership.
And I actually own some Plum Creek Timber!
Ironic, no?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:32 amObrigato!
Now this is what I call “effective lobbying:”
May 16th, 2008 at 1:38 amchase exited wholesale helocs today…. fyi.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:36 am.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:13 am