Welcome to Crazy Country
All of a sudden, my bullish friends are worried about a pullback. Like, out of nowhere, oil above $125 scares them.
I told them: “don’t worry, pal. It’s already priced in. Oil is going to $2,000 per barrel by 2012, and it’s priced in. The market is a marvelous instrument that is constantly pricing stuff in, while its participants do lines of blow.”
I think that settled him down. He’s buying more [[RIG]] and [[NOV]] here.
The banks are shitting the closet. Good for those satanic “tree fuckers.” Come Monday morning, I want to see like 50 bankruptcies and 200 dilutive deals, to go with another 300 billion in write downs.
Speaking of which, is anyone taking notice of “The Fly’s” mastery, regarding [[CORS]], [[FHN]], [[FED]] and [[DSL]]? If you didn’t know, they are my “reverse four horsemen,” who are all riding down to zero.
In other news, “The Fly” is on the verge of multiple wins. I cannot disclose how “winfull” these wins are. But, just know, “The Fly” is in a constant state of victory, even when he appears to be losing, badly.
Just to sum things up. Let me give you some ideas:
Long: [[SKS]], [[LAZ]], [[BAP]], [[AIZ]], [[NOV]], [[RIG]], [[CLNE]], [[NOEC]], [[VSE]] [[OMNI]], [[ARD]],[[CLX]], [[SKF]], [[SRS]], [[REW]] and [[FXP]].
Short: [[CORS]], [[FED]], [[DSL]], [[FHN]], [[POT]], [[MER]], [[LEH]] and [[WM]].
Ha.
Love the front pic. J wins again.
PDO is a beast!
May 16th, 2008 at 12:03 pmCrazy? You want to hear crazy? When it costs more to make the barrel that the oil goes in, thats fucking egregious. By the way why worry? Its all priced in.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:14 pmFYI Oil is not stored in barrels anymore. That was just back in the old days.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:22 pmshort from the 30’s.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pmDucati,
What side of the trade are you on old fella ?
May 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pmYou comment a lot on other people’s positions but give little disclosure about your own holdings.
Correct Cap.
That is why Crickets is a blogging failure, due to his desire to never be wrong. He’s too scared to put his balls on the line.
A regular coward, in the Western sense.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:32 pmSaudis tell bush to F*ck off If Bush wants to see a drop in the price of oil, he needs to pay a visit to the NYMEX and tell traders to stop bidding the price up. The price of oil is beyond the control of OPEC. Its traders who determine the price. OPEC controlled oil prices prior to oil being an easily tradeable commodity. Once Marc Rich and Co. invented the spot market for oil in the 70s, power to set oil prices moved from OPEC to the energy traders.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:35 pmLying sack of horse shit.
You never post holdings—just your imaginary trades.
POT and GS, POT and GS, POT and GS……
May 16th, 2008 at 12:36 pmDuc is a poser who recycles obscure text books and macro econ crap from B rated biz schools.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:40 pmDucati , where is your blog ? How come you don’t link to it ?
May 16th, 2008 at 12:41 pmVery clever of you Dr. Duc.
Your insults are laden with just the right amount of English politeness, preventing you from being banned, yet again.
Nicely done. I see you took your meds.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:42 pmI refuse to explain myself to you.
Move on.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:46 pmFrom Marketwatch:
Paulson went into great detail to show that the administration’s Hope Now initiative with the mortgage industry was producing desired results of minimizing foreclosures. “Of the more than 400,000 subprime-mortgage resets originally scheduled for the first quarter of 2008, only 553 loans that were current at reset have entered foreclosure,” he added.
Please explain how/why house go into foreclosure when they are current?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:01 pmAn oil bull gives a bear a ride home from the Nymex after a day of trading.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InPoPRfqNWM&NR=1
May 16th, 2008 at 1:02 pmDucati never made any money trading. Those that claim to never lose on a trade are liars.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:06 pmThe IBC crew address the egregious comments spewed by The Ducati: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw2_Zs140lg&feature=related
May 16th, 2008 at 1:07 pmDuc - sell crazy somewhere else…we’re all full up here.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:12 pmI say we settle who is the best 3rd tier blogger between The Fly and ducati once and for all through a walk off. Let see which one of you mother fuckers can take his panty off with his pants still on.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:15 pmI like it …. the Duc is trying to help The Fly take a profit!
May 16th, 2008 at 1:17 pmBEHOLD …
Ducati’s Portfolio
Forget foreclosure stats. People need to keep an eye on something called a Short Sale. A situation where the homeowner with the banks approval sells their home for less than the mortgage value. This situation is increasingly common in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida as well as other depressed RE markets. I have seen situtations where the bank is owed $700,000 on the home and its sold for $300,000. Thats a $400,000 loss for the bank. But they have no choice. The foreclosure process is expensive and its easier for the bank to just swallow the loss without incurring additional expenses. I dare say short sale numbers are surpassing foreclosure numbers. So if foreclosure numbers start dropping keep an eye on short sales.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:20 pmThe “Reverse Four Horsemen” made me laugh out loud.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:23 pmI sold it higher than 28.
No thanks Crickets. Your advice has always been bad. I think I’ll stick to my Haily Mary approach.
Thanks anyway.
Fly
May 16th, 2008 at 1:24 pmFly,
This is a classic post. Especially because it contains Ducati whining in the comment section.
Ducati, who gives a shit about the ToS data? I doubt if I sold 3000 shares of FED on whatever date that I’d get all 3000 at one fucking price anyway, so that would never show up on the ToS. The hybrid market means that any large orders get chopped into little pieces… also, there’s such things called “dark pools” where a lot of larger orders get taken.
Your obsessive attention to detail is kind of misplaced here. It may be good for your analysis of trades, but this is a blog, which is really more of a story. I’m sure there are many shortcuts and editing that takes place… I personally think it’d be pretty tiresome if “the Fly” reported every single transaction that occurred, one by one.
It’s certainly tiresome to hear him be attacked for lack of candor when there aren’t many other worthwhile blogs giving such advice for free.
(NOTE: Woody, does this “defense” make up for my “attack” on “the Fly” yesterday? If so, I plan on attacking again, in short order.)
-DT
May 16th, 2008 at 1:33 pmBuy FRE … chart is setting up, short interest high with a PPT put kicker
May 16th, 2008 at 1:35 pmFly - add KEY to your ‘banks to zero’, list.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:40 pmRF and MI also suck HELOCs subslime.
Short at will.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:43 pmShort HWAY and HLF
you’re welcome
May 16th, 2008 at 1:45 pmIn a short sale the bank pays the real estate agent’s commissions 5% usually and considerable closing costs. They lose more than just the 700,000 to 400,000.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:06 pm