13,000 Here We Comeby The Fly on May 29th, 2008 at 10:59 am |
According to the latest crude inventory report, we don’t have enough oil—coming in a tad under 9 million barrels short.
Fucking shocker.
On that news, the market is ripping higher.
Just face it, the market wants to go higher, regardless of the news. Once again, the market has morphed into a magical “pricing in” machine, where all bad news gets “discounted” and good news is treated as a surprise.
If you want to short a market like that, good luck; you’ll be out of the business in no time.
At the top of my buy list are two financials: (BAP: 69.33 -1.15%) aka “The Bank of Cocaine” and (AIZ: 57.05 -0.38%).
Also, you have to love crude here. I’ll stick with (PCZ: 45.80 +4.59%), (PZE: 10.60 +3.21%) and (FTK: 16.90 -0.47%). Also, on the news of a secondary, (ARD: 46.49 +4.57%) is getting punched. Wait for it to stabilize, then buy it. It always comes back.
Don’t look now, corn is getting hit again—falling under $590. Should the drop accelerate, while ethanol remains high, “The Fly” will be buying (VSE: 6.23 -3.26%) and (AVR: 6.34 -0.78%) with both hands.
One of my spec/lotto plays, (QTWW: 1.88 +4.44%), is behaving nicely. Frankly, I could care less about the fundamentals. It’s all about price action with bullshit stocks.
Finally, I am shocked to see (BWLD: 36.32 -3.17%) going higher everyday. I thought the economy was in the shitter? Conversely, “Burrito King,” (CMG: 70.00 -0.09%), has been getting slugged on a daily basis. It’s almost as if the two companies switched ticker symbols or some shit. It seems odd or unnatural that BWLD is outperforming CMG by such a large margin.
Something has to give.
Theres plenty of oil. Its all a conspiracy to annihilate the lower classes.
Down with Rockyfeller & Bullwinkle.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:07 amI have no problem with annihilating the lower class.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:08 amThen you would have to mow your own lawn.
Be careful what you wish for.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:09 amI say we stop here 1400 S&P. Maybe we test 1435 again.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:11 amFlag BEXP. Just broke above 14.50, after a short term consolidation. This stock is headed for at least 20. Possibly within this quarter.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:13 amIt looks like FTK wants to hold it’s 50 day. I hope it does, because I bought some despite your scary disclaimer. I don’t want to get my mustache punched.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:14 amBEXP is egregious.
I missed that one.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:14 amwhy don’t you just focus on elliminating those over 47.5?
May 29th, 2008 at 11:16 amare you selling this bounce in LEH?
May 29th, 2008 at 11:24 amCMG gives you gas and intestinal discomfort.
Most everyone likes BBQ’d / hot wings. People can eat more of them because they’re “bean free”. Plus, the bones make good projectiles that can be launched at trader/servants.
Buy BWLD with both hands (and little towelettes).
May 29th, 2008 at 11:27 amalpha,
There are 3 comments awaiting moderation on your blog.
jog on
May 29th, 2008 at 11:31 amduc
Short DBA, dammit. That is just another way to crack corn.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:33 amhttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4831.html
this guy was right on time.
Fuck this rally. Fake rally I should say.
Down with Codex Alimentarius
May 29th, 2008 at 11:38 amRE: LEH
There was a 61.8% fib line (strong, iow) at $38.70, it got a little above that today and faded.
FWIW.
_
May 29th, 2008 at 11:46 amIf WNR goes any higher from here, I might be tempted to buy TSO, VLO, ALJ and SUN and wait for some more buyout rumors.
Anyone care to start a VLO buyout rumor ?
May 29th, 2008 at 11:47 amCovered half my DSL position this morning at $7.50.
Sometimes you just can’t continue staring a “gift horse” in the mouth.
Hoping for another opp to reshort, however.
_
May 29th, 2008 at 11:48 amGreg –
A little boid just tole me “Blue Star likes VLO.”
May 29th, 2008 at 11:49 amI’m with ya on short DBA woodshedder, looks like it is failing as we speak.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:49 amAnybody playing POT long (likely only Lord Duc and myself around here) should know this. There’s a growing sense the material stocks are done. Any selloff in materials that bleeds into POT is wrong. Those dips will be bought by smart guys.
Second, any transitory strength in the dollar often leads to a knee jerk reaction to sell commodities. People selling POT on those days will be selling their shares to guys smarter than the sellers.
Third, the nitrogen heavy fertilizer guys (CF, TRA, TNH) do not enjoy the same barriers and pricing power that POT and MOS have. POT’s valuation correctly has a premium built in due to it being the “Saudi Arabia of Fertilizer” and having more exposure to potash than anyone else. Additional nitrogen capacity can be brought online much quicker than potash. Over time, I expect the market to further differentiate between the nitrogen guys and the others, causing the POT premium to widen. Long POT/Short TNH on a dollar neutral basis should work for the risk averse, but just know you’re going to be short a divvy of at least 6% after 2Q numbers are reported, which will be blowouts for both POT and TNH.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:49 amI still have POT and MOS.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:50 amJake, can you “translate” that info on LEH for people not used to thinking outloud in Fibonacci shorthand (like me)?
May 29th, 2008 at 11:56 amThanks.
JPM is doing great today. Celebrating the arrival of the big hollow wooden Bear inside the city walls. Keep celebrating douchebags, the short is there now. RKH is having a party as well.. Key was just kidding yesterday, they really have a great loan book, and so do all other regional banks. MOS, the piece of shit driving up the cost of my lettuce is going to roll over.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:58 amMON is starting to look interesting on this pullback today. Decent support here.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:59 amOther crack corn plays are TSN & PEP
May 29th, 2008 at 12:07 pmAlias: BPOE
Caution Inflation is going to print much lower for China in May!!! Like I said stay away from the crowded trades. Even UPS is up!!! You got to love it.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:08 pmlol numbers from the government used “slide of hand accounting” “well the numbers are down because the shipment got delayed… yeah ok enron government
May 29th, 2008 at 12:09 pm“enron govt”—that’s a good one, lol.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:12 pmhuge oil dump on surprise positive news is probably not a bullish sign for commodities. Not to mention that all this hyper-commodity crap would pretty well doom civilization in the immediate future. POT saw 12 trading hours of its old glory days; that’s enough.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:21 pmFXP is going to shit.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:26 pmAlias: BPOE
In China business books have enron for the first chaper.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:27 pmFucka You we have little dicks but write numbers with huge pens.
Larry why the fuck do you continue to put the gay phrase: Alias: BPOE
May 29th, 2008 at 12:43 pmin your messages? I once knew a guy that did that and he was fond of sucking purple pickles.
fly, ive said this be4..ethanol is dead
dont let that be ur waterloo
or FTK, which i dont like either
May 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pmEd
Your freaking me out man.
Gapping said: “purple pickles.”
May 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pmTriple top on trannies…
May 29th, 2008 at 1:22 pmCrude falls, IYT soars! Woohoo!
Sweet transvestite
May 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pmEnd of month BS window dressing. Got in some good SHORT entries today. 13K no way. Not until we go back to March lows which started this afternoon and then have another bull shit rally with another FED rate cut. Fly you do not have the balls to be a BEAR. I guess that is why you’re a fly.
May 29th, 2008 at 6:30 pmPOT and MON are toast. I SHORTED both today. Bought some more SMN too.
May 29th, 2008 at 6:40 pm