Thank the Gods for Oil
If it weren’t for the sharp decline in crude, the market would have dived lower today. No one is believing the “long financial” story, as readily seen in the failed breakout of [[LEH]] today.
I’ll have you know, “The Fly” is too busy to fuck around with “rabble rousers” on the internet.
I did not add to any inverse ETF’s today. I was too busy helping corn dive lower.
Sometime soon, [[SRS]], [[FXP]] and [[SKF]] will be buyable again. Moreover, right now, [[FED]] is a sweet short, unable to stand up like a fucking man, in the face of a market rally.
I kick old men down open manholes, all the time.
I like ethanol, mainly because all of you fucktards dislike it. And, I like to bet against [[POT]], because the people who buy it over $200 are mentally ill.
Net, net, I gave back 1.2% today, bringing my year to date return to a mere 26%.
Fuck you, I’m better than you, in every way imaginable.
Should [[RIG]] trade to the $140’s, I’m diving in head first.
NOTE: Tomorrow we trade lower.
Oil will trade above 133 tomorrow and all of the end of month window cornfuckers will have their microwave kettle corn blow a hole thru their coconuts.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:07 pmShitstain,
That’s a difficult one to visualize. Nevertheless, I added to my APA short today, which is the beginning of my bearish move on crude over the short term. C’mon guys, how can you have an inventory report like today and still have this bitch move lower? Look out for the H&S patterns on the various crude stocks that I mentioned the other day. The crude short thesis has just begun to play out.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:20 pmWithout oil, we’d have no lubricants.
Oil to $500.
-DT
May 29th, 2008 at 4:21 pmJCG = Homo Hammer of Death
May 29th, 2008 at 4:27 pmCheck this out… I was in meeting all afternoon, and this was the bottled water they served…
Bottled, and I shit you not, in containers made from CORN!
_
May 29th, 2008 at 4:37 pmBoca,
If you are still around, I can answer your fib query now…
May 29th, 2008 at 4:37 pmJake, can we take the bottles and eat them? Or, can we melt them and run our cars with the liquid? Cool…
May 29th, 2008 at 4:38 pmLEH Rallied just above it’s Fib line of 38.5 and didn’t return (Hat tip: JakeG). Bought some more puts
May 29th, 2008 at 4:41 pmyes I’m here Jake, thanks
May 29th, 2008 at 4:50 pmHolly fuck JCG is getting the absolute donkey kick to the head. I may nibble a tiny bite here.
UPDATE: Quick calculation tells me its a buy at 35-37.50 areas but it ain’t a buy at 38
Anyone else have anything to offer on this name?
May 29th, 2008 at 4:51 pmJake,
There’s a palace made of corn:
http://www.cornpalace.org/newpages/palace.html
With all the uses for corn, I don’t see how the price will be coming down in the long run. Edible packaging and containers would be a great idea.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:59 pmDawg,
They must have to post armed guards at that joint at night to keep the bootleggers and ethanol converters from hatcheting “the product.”
_
May 29th, 2008 at 5:05 pmKEY is going down to $0.01.
NPA last Q were $1.054B
90 days past due bring that up to $1.337B
30-89 days past are $1.169B. If only 15% of them become non performing that gives them over $1.5B NPA.
They only have a reserve of $1.2B up currently. Also about $8B in mortgage back securities on their ballance sheet.
Short it all the way down.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:07 pmOil to infinity
Man In The Mirror
May 29th, 2008 at 5:10 pmJake,
Armed guards also needed for the arsonists who enjoy a good bag of hot buttered popcorn.
Let’s just admit there are a zillion uses for corn.
http://www.ontariocorn.org/classroom/products.html
May 29th, 2008 at 5:16 pmGapping:
Personally, my take on the name is that it is an exceptional long term hold that unfortunately, like other “high end” retailers, in the near term is facing a very challenging economic environment. According to my very fashion conscience girlfriend, who shops there all of the time, their clothing line is great. Every time I walk into the store it is packed with many fashion conscience shoppers. Walking down the streets of NYC on any sunny day and you are bound to see many J-Crew shopping bags.
Yes, Yes, I am aware that I am drawing conclusions based on broad generalizations derived from my personal observations, but trust me, they make rather high quality, fashionable (but not overly trendy) clothing at reasonable prices. The stock would reflect that if the economy were healthier.
I own a ton, and will probably pick up some more below 38, with the understanding that I would be doing so with a longer time horizon in mind. Ceteris paribus, $55-$60 stock in any healthy retail environment
May 29th, 2008 at 5:21 pmmanhole, cornhole, what’s the dif. Hey fly, there’s an old man in your manhole.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:30 pmJake, I think I answered my own question, so nevermind. Thanks.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:30 pmThanks WSL.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:33 pm**FLY, WATCH OUT FOR HAARP**
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=0VX0JvpW5q0
BESAFE
May 29th, 2008 at 5:43 pmBoca,
W. regard to the whole “fibonacci” thing, it’s a mathematical concept that has to do with certain number strings found in nature, the origin of which is “n+ preceding number= next fibonacci number.” In other words, a fibo string would look like this…
0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34…. etc.
As for trading, however, it’s the golden ratio — the number one gets by dividing the adjacent numbers (ie, 34/21 - 1.62, or it’s inverse 0.62) that’s important.
Here’s some more text that probably explains it better than I have above:
It is the ratio of the Fibonacci sequence that is significant, rather than the actual numbers in the sequence. The quotient of the adjacent terms in the series possesses an amazing proportion, roughly 1.618, or its inverse 0.618. This proportion is known by many names: the golden ratio, the golden mean, PHI, and the divine proportion. The dimensional properties that adhere to the ratio of 1.618 occur repeatedly in nature. Examples are as various as mollusk shells and the shapes of gallaxies containing billions of stars.
When used in technical analysis, the golden ratio is most often translated into three percentages: – 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. However, other multiples can be used, such as 23.6%, 161.8%, 423%, and so on. The Fibonacci sequence is applied to finance in several ways: retracements, extensions, arcs, fans, and time zones.
________________
See next post for “why does it tend to work?”
May 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pmBoca,
Personally, I find the two strongest fib lines (when constructed from a recent “high” to a recent “low”) are at the 61.8% retracement and the 38.2% retracement areas.
These areas act as good pivots for an intermediate term trade.
May 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pmFor some reason my “Why does it tend to work” post was swallowed by the site, and it won’t let me repost, so we’ll see what happens…
May 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pmIf your trying to post a link etc, try removing the http.
Adams blog ate up like 5 of my messages one morning before I finally gave up.
http://img112.imageshack.us/my.php?image=kristenbellass02ki0.jpg
May 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pmJake,
You should post more stuff on Senore Fibonacci and the golden ratio in the PG sometime.
Btw, my son is a musician. He says music theory has elements of those Fibonacci numbers associated with it.
May 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pmJake, I understand so far - I was familiar in general with the Fibonacci numbers. Is the correct inference that you are using the numbers to determine expected support and resistance levels from a previous high or low?
May 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm^Agree with Alphadawg^ you should write something about it in the PG.
Like a fool, before I started trading seriously, I sold all my books on Fibonacci numbers. Now I wish I had them back.
May 29th, 2008 at 6:50 pmboca,
if you ever come across any books by A.H. Cohen, let me know. He’s the guy that invented probably the greatest market indicator–the bullish percent index. It’s formed the basis for much of the contrarian approach.
Couldn’t find anything on Amazon. The books must be out of print, since they would have been published in 1950’s.
May 29th, 2008 at 7:04 pmwill do AlphaDawg, I’ll check around (making a note of it now).
May 29th, 2008 at 7:11 pmKass now likes the banks. A basket of C BAC WFC. Cramer is not on board, yet.
Interesting call, from the former bank analyst. Kass is often early, painfully so.
Then again, look at his Barrons call of shorting Berkshire. That marked a recent bottom. Maybe he pukes those banks up soon enough. That’d be cool.
May 29th, 2008 at 7:23 pmFED is a much better short than KEY.
Kass has been very good this year. I do not disagree with a bounce trade in the banks. At the present, my only bank short is FED.
However, he tosses a lot of mixed signals. One week he is “all in” short, the next he’s long.
A rather fucktarded individual.
May 29th, 2008 at 8:05 pmYou know what is fucktarded, oil traders changing their fucking mind and saying that in 1 week oil demand has magically dropped by a shitload and thus the need to sell the shit out of oil today. Thats the most fucktarded shit I have seen. Your telling me that in 1 fucking week everyone got together and decided they were going to stop using a shitload of oil. Fuck that. I am going outside to start burning barrels of oil immediately, maybe tomorrow they will say demand is up. A complete fuckery. These people need to take a few C18H21NO3·C4H6O6·2½H2O and go back to their fucking cannoli’s tomorrow.
May 29th, 2008 at 8:13 pmLol whats to say kass isnt pumping the banks for a reason. if he shorts stuff, wouldn’t he want to pump shit up so he can short it?
May 29th, 2008 at 8:22 pmPhase II of my multi-phased oil short begins Friday with a short of SWN on any weakness (I added to my APA short this morning on its move up after the oil report came out). I got the feeling that oil traders are going to be scared shitless to hold long into the weekend with this most recent bearish action in the oil pits. Depending on how many barrels of oil gapping burns this weekend, I will initiate my hedge on Monday to lock in my risk. The money managers will want to lock in soon, and then the retail traders will be scrambling for the exits early next week. My only problem is that I may not be quick enough to establish a full short position in enough time. Watch out if we take out yesterdays up bar in OIH on a move down Friday. Remember T Boone shorted crude at 100 for a reason. He didn’t count on the crazy spec to take it to 130 . The man is not stupid and he had his reason for doing what he did. He was just a bit early in his move. Then, like a good trader, he switches and goes long along with pumping it to a buck-fiddy - no doubt he was going to re-initiate his short at that level and clean up. You can bet your ass he has taken some off the table now and will soon appear on CNBC to say that the current rally is dead and that he sees it going to the low 100s. Shit, I could write his script.
May 29th, 2008 at 8:25 pmok, you know i dont use caps, ever….
YOU HAVE GOT TO BE FUCKING KIDDING ME
The Federal Reserve is actively considering creation of a lending facility that would accept “very safe” foreign collateral from “sound” global banks in case of a widespread liquidity crisis, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said Thursday.
May 29th, 2008 at 9:19 pmnullpointer: Jesus — and in fed speak, “in case of a widespread liquidity crisis” means “in the coming widespread liquidity crisis”.
ALL ABOARD THE FAILBOAT
May 29th, 2008 at 9:27 pmJakey, swigging from Metabolix and Cereplast bottles? I have some CERP tucked away for keeps.
There are tankers steaming into Houston and Philly now, full of crude. Several funds took delivery and are now paying 150,000/day to keep the cargo on the high seas, having bet on the spike to 150. The drop is on them.
Kass shorts were crap in Barrons.
May 29th, 2008 at 9:33 pm