Special Time Machine Update
Friday, May 30th, 2008I just got back from 4 o’clock. The market will trade lower today.
You’re welcome.
Fly wins again, in advance.
I just got back from 4 o’clock. The market will trade lower today.
You’re welcome.
Fly wins again, in advance.
I sold short 2,000 (CHL: 65.91 +2.46%) @ $73.80.
Disclaimer: If you short CHL because of this post, when China conquers the U.S., they will find you and dispatch you to a work camp, where you will mine coal. And, you may lose money.
This is what investing is all about. What the fuck am I talking about, you query?
It’s all about waiting around for category 5 ‘canes of destruction, then banking coin off it. Naturally, your knee-jerk reaction is to be appalled by such jargon. Quite frankly, I’m beside myself writing it.
However, I will tell you, those fucking hurricanes are good times, for us New Yorkers. As you know, during hurricane season, which officially kicks off in a couple, “The Fly” is your resident meteorologist up in this bitch. Readily, I make wild predictions, backed up by weather patterns and I reference history (aka old propaganda) as a guideline to find potential “money makers.”
Just know, the Godly folks at iBC have a presence down in the “funhouse of hurricanes.” Upon danger, I will have Ragin Cajun choppered out of his local swampland and scurried along to safety, so don’t worry.
In all seriousness, as opposed to joking and offending, I am ready to start buying natural gas stocks, with great vigor. Typically, I just go long 500,000 shares of (NGAS: 8.32 -9.57%) around this time of the year. However, that company is gayer than a 3 legged statue of Liberace.
Instead, I might go with (SWN: 45.04 -5.40%), (TXCO: 11.18 -4.69%), (GLF: 53.80 -3.38%) or (GLBL: 16.01 -3.44%), amongst others.
By the way, I view the earnings miss at (JCG: 32.09 -1.47%) as a very serious hit to the retailers. JCG is best in space, run by a genius. For them to miss and warn must mean everyone is poor. Quite alarming.
Energy stocks are rebounding today, after yesterday’s panic. I am looking for a reversal in (RIG: 142.91 -2.15%). There can be 5 points to be had there, short term.
The banks are weak again. What can I say? People hate them.
Until proven wrong, I’ll stick with my long energy/short banks investment approach. However, it’s worth noting, at the present, I do not have any bank shorts, with exception to the jackasses at (FED: 7.20 -10.34%).
I’m not a fan of the farmer. Never have been, never will be.
Fuck the farmer and his bushels of corn.
IT guys are glorified servants.
If it weren’t for the sharp decline in crude, the market would have dived lower today. No one is believing the “long financial” story, as readily seen in the failed breakout of (LEH: 22.85 +2.19%) today.
I’ll have you know, “The Fly” is too busy to fuck around with “rabble rousers” on the internet.
I did not add to any inverse ETF’s today. I was too busy helping corn dive lower.
Sometime soon, (SRS: 110.15 +1.71%), (FXP: 91.73 -0.74%) and (SKF: 160.40 +0.70%) will be buyable again. Moreover, right now, (FED: 7.20 -10.34%) is a sweet short, unable to stand up like a fucking man, in the face of a market rally.
I kick old men down open manholes, all the time.
I like ethanol, mainly because all of you fucktards dislike it. And, I like to bet against (POT: 210.89 -0.78%), because the people who buy it over $200 are mentally ill.
Net, net, I gave back 1.2% today, bringing my year to date return to a mere 26%.
Fuck you, I’m better than you, in every way imaginable.
Should (RIG: 142.91 -2.15%) trade to the $140’s, I’m diving in head first.
NOTE: Tomorrow we trade lower.
Finally, corn is breaking lower. Do not misconstrue this post as some sort of endorsement for technical analysis– oh no. It’s just the easiest way to show you the pending doom and destruction those fucking farmers face.
Let corn come down and fertilizer costs gap higher, I always say.
Adequate ways to play the fall of corn is to short (GRU: 11.08 +1.28%), (JJG: 74.00 -0.10%) or (DBA: 42.03 -0.14%).
However, the best ways to profit from a weak grain market is to buy the 200% inverse agriculture ETN: (AGA: 19.87 +0.46%), which consists of corn, soybeans, sugar and wheat.
If you are a straight gangster, wanting to profit from the demise of all commodities, (DEE: 17.62 -0.77%) is your play. DEE shorts crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat, at a 200% clip. In other words, “fuck the farmer” and the oil guy.
The 200% upside ETN’s are (DAG: 28.48 -1.59%) and (DYY: 35.0401 -0.51%).
NOTE: As you know, my favorite stock ideas, for a fucked corn tape, are (VSE: 4.21 -5.61%) and (AVR: 4.56 -8.43%).
NOTE II: If you’re interested, the prospectuses can be found here.
A confluence of events has given new life to the shitbag dollar. We have treasury yields sprinting higher, the Fed talking rate hikes and better than expected GDP growth. Be careful for what you ask for, dollar bulls.
With the dollar gapping higher, it will hurt the earnings of our beloved multi-national corporations. However, there are other ways to profit from this new paradigm.
For example: Indian IT service companies. This sector has been killed, due to rupee strength versus the dollar. It was eating away at their gross margins. Off of a strong dollar, (INFY: 42.60 -2.29%), (CTSH: 31.80 +1.37%) and (SAY: 24.60 +0.04%) should thrive.
The most obvious beneficiary off of a strong dollar is Japan. They are a huge exporter and rely upon favorable exchange rates to bank coin. There are many ways to play Japan. I prefer, (CAJ: 49.25 +1.17%), (TM: 92.00 +0.66%), (NMR: 14.55 +1.96%) and (EWJ: 12.29 +0.33%).
In short, if the fucker exports to the U.S., they will benefit from a strong dollar, providing end user demand remains robust.
According to the latest crude inventory report, we don’t have enough oil—coming in a tad under 9 million barrels short.
Fucking shocker.
On that news, the market is ripping higher.
Just face it, the market wants to go higher, regardless of the news. Once again, the market has morphed into a magical “pricing in” machine, where all bad news gets “discounted” and good news is treated as a surprise.
If you want to short a market like that, good luck; you’ll be out of the business in no time.
At the top of my buy list are two financials: (BAP: 79.74 -1.03%) aka “The Bank of Cocaine” and (AIZ: 68.18 +0.12%).
Also, you have to love crude here. I’ll stick with (PCZ: 53.50 -1.18%), (PZE: 11.43 0.00%) and (FTK: 18.52 -4.98%). Also, on the news of a secondary, (ARD: 48.32 -4.98%) is getting punched. Wait for it to stabilize, then buy it. It always comes back.
Don’t look now, corn is getting hit again—falling under $590. Should the drop accelerate, while ethanol remains high, “The Fly” will be buying (VSE: 4.21 -5.61%) and (AVR: 4.56 -8.43%) with both hands.
One of my spec/lotto plays, (QTWW: 2.81 -6.02%), is behaving nicely. Frankly, I could care less about the fundamentals. It’s all about price action with bullshit stocks.
Finally, I am shocked to see (BWLD: 24.72 -1.20%) going higher everyday. I thought the economy was in the shitter? Conversely, “Burrito King,” (CMG: 80.77 +0.90%), has been getting slugged on a daily basis. It’s almost as if the two companies switched ticker symbols or some shit. It seems odd or unnatural that BWLD is outperforming CMG by such a large margin.
Something has to give.