Now, the market can get inside a little hand basket and venture off to hell.
“The Fly” is about to enter a few meetings. I’ll be back, later on this evening. While, I’m gone, make sure my positions cooperate.
Top pick: [[FXP]]
NOTE: In no way is this post an endorsement of Senator Obama. I’ll have you know, “The Fly” will be voting for Calvin Coolidge, yet again (think time machine).
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May 23rd 2008: “RIG is getting into oversold territory. If that fucker prints $145, I am in with both hands.”
Do you still hold true to this?
Ha Ha, LEH is my B$TCH!!!!
Short the financials to ZERO!
Energy is a bubble
energy will correct.
RIG will be sold in a panic by everyone who thought RIG could go to 200.
Oil is a-plenty. Every dipshit out there is drilling in their backyard. Another story sold to the public. China is not going to be driving around paying $4/gallon. There’s probably 6 or 7 guys that can afford it. So take your time catching the knife.
long FXP sounds good.
Fly – Don’t forget to put some socks on and wipe the Dunkin Donuts stains off your shirt (assuming you will be wearing a shirt) before you go to the meetings.
Someone tell Bernanke that he can not bail out the US dollar. He keeps on talking like he can.
Wow that was amazing that as soon as the Obama announcement hit the market just shit all over itself.
Did I just hear “Buy 1 home, get 1 free”? WTF
here we go…elevator down
Alias:BPOE
Things smell fucked up!!! Lies and government comtrol.
Went to 100% cash. I will keep most of my gains thank you.
In JNPR as it hit my buy point $26.30. Just in case anyone is looking for a network name for the long run.
I need to grab some longs as I’m heavily short the Q’s.
Danm, I has a order in for SMN @ 27.55, 1 penny from missing this run.
Congrats to all of you LEH shorts. Unreal drop!
Sometimes you surprise me with your acute historical knowledge.
Calvin Coolidge (Amherst ’88), has the dual distinction of being one of our best, and most unknown Presidents.
The crude selloff continues. Adding to my APA (-3.09%) short, adding to my SWN (-1.52%) short, and initiating OIH (-1.92%) short. Initiated hefty DUG (3.00%) long today as well. We got a crude selloff happening and the market is overreacting to it. That’s all. Associating it with Obama is just fucking retarded.
Head and shoulders being put in on the Cubes. Anyone else see it as well?
Go Obama.
KOL to 0?
Conventional wisdom would dictate that I should cover my LEH short here. On the other hand having witnessed the Bear Sterns episode, I am sure a lot of people who covered their BSC shorts after it broke $30 must have kicked themselves for doing so.
Alvari, watch Kudlow tonight and you will see what this sell off is from 🙂
The funny thing is, there’s no way Obama wins, so I gotta think the market is thinking (and I hate to say this but): “BOTH of them suck, so without Hildabeast, we’re cooked.”
I guess the market is thinking, hmmm… ” Let’s see… we can have Marxism… or War…. which shall it be? ….
I think I shall repair to the garage and lead some hose from the exhaust pipe in through the driver-side window…”
_
Latest word from the Basement of the Crack house:
We finished licking both the pestle and mortar clean (not to mention the bowl of the glass pipe), so we sent Ottnot out for 38 packages of Sudafed and a bundle of TMR to mix with our QTWW crank.
_
Jake,
“…Hildabeast….” That is just fucking hilarious.
Cubs,
I know he is going to say it’s Financials and Obama. That’s why I am picking the road less traveled. Crude shorts have low risks associated with them right now. I just gotta get some goddamn downside protection put on.
Jake,
War is better for the economy.
jake-
man, i am going to cause a shit-storm for saying this, but….
my wife and i have been speculating about the possibility of the power brokers purposely “letting” a black man win this time….what better scapegoat to dump the impending apocalypse onto (i.e. a black man).
fm minyanville – t harrison
We don’t “do” rumors in the ‘Ville but we’d be remiss if we didn’t pass along our ears to ye faithful.
The chatta–and it’s just that, unconfirmed chatta–is that counter-parties are “pulling a Bear” on Lehman (LEH). In other words, the “rumor becomes reality” scenario is making it’s way around the trading wires.
I have no insight to the legitimacy of these stories but I’ll say the same thing I said about Bear Stearns (BSC) in March. If rumors alone can bring down a franchise, how strong can that franchise be? This speaks to the fragility of a globally interwoven banking system in a finance-based economy built on more than $500 trillion of derivatives.
The conditional elements for meltage are in place–we’ve been warning about the wobbling wheels since last summer and speaking of the conditional elements for years.
I’m not smart enough to know if the comeuppance has arrived–there are huge agendas and proactive initiatives in play–but I’ll humbly note that the recipe for slippage that we’ve spoke of–BKX 75, a stronger dollar and slippage in commodities–is quietly in place.
To be clear, I don’t have a position in Lehman–or any financial, for that matter, despite my incessant and insistent rambling about the importance of BKX 75. The meat of my heat is in the short commodity space, which I’m picking at and trading around as a function of discipline, and I’m trying to stay tight
The purpose of this post is to again point to risk management over reward chasing as the modus operandi of choice. By the time most people learn that lesson, it may be too late.
kass reiterating his buy the banks call.
as ever, that fucker is Painfully early, w/ a capital P.
Null,
He can’t even win the Dems in the “purple” states (ie, Ohio, PA, MI, etc), there’s no way he’s going to win the election.
Here’s my take: If he weren’t “JFK handsome” and if he didn’t have one of the most melliflous, almost mesmirizing voices in politics, he’d have been done long ago.
One glimpse of his inexperience and his way far left politics, and he’s over.
I don’t know what’s up with the Democrats and their ongoing penchant for running the hardest left person they can find (except for the one year when Bill Clinton ran because no one in the “usual suspects” list thought Bush Senior could be beaten), but one of these days they are going to figure out that “definition of insanity” thing, and the GOP will have to actually run a decent candidate.
_
LEH getting the “lahge” cover bid.
I thought Kass was a dyed-in-the-goats-hair short seller on the banks? Wow.
Obama has extra mental capacity, he knows how to control language. Like Kennedy. Formidable. Coolidge was more adventurous than quiet. I had a chance to visit his homestead in White River Junction last year.
update.. the rat turds are getting a bid, now that Obama is no longer a threat. MOS, Bidu doodoo, CRM the usual momo shitballs.
Fly,
Having my picture taken with satchel full of FXP cash. Thanks. How’s my hair?
Who in the name of all that is schizo is buying Dow stocks?
Get back to your desk and SELL!
Kass: Bank Stocks Capitulating?
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
6/3/2008 11:59 AM EDT
Though we are approaching the beginning of summer, my developing bullish view on bank stocks might be like buying straw hats in the winter.
Quite frankly, I sense a growing likelihood that Capitulation (with a capital C) has emerged in the past week for bank stocks, recently fueled in part by the following developments and thin-reed indicators:
* Standard and Poor’s (those wonderful folks who ignored the housing and subprime problems in 2005-2007 until it was too late) downgraded several investment banks on Monday. From my perch, Standard and Poor’s move was valueless to equity investors, was instituted very late in the cycle and might have served to put a bottom in the financial sector.
* Both Wachovia (WB – commentary – Cramer’s Take) and Washington Mutual (WM – commentary – Cramer’s Take) have ousted their chairmen, as they follow the ousting of financial industry ne’er-do-wells Stan O’Neal from Merrill Lynch (MER – commentary – Cramer’s Take), Chuck Prince from Citigroup (C – commentary – Cramer’s Take) and James Cayne from Bear Stears (BSC – commentary – Cramer’s Take). Responsible industry leadership is a necessary ingredient toward effective management and rationalization of the banking industry’s assets.
* Lehman Brothers (LEH – commentary – Cramer’s Take) is rumored to need more capital — only two months after its CFO protested too much. The Lehman raise (if factual) will likely nearly conclude the curative process of necessary capital raises. (Ironically, it appears that Lehman’s short-term profit problem stems from it being short the ABX and CMBS indices as a hedge against its business book. Memo to investors: The fact that those indices are rising is forward looking and positive development.)
* The media (those wonderful folks who, similar to the rating agencies, ignored the housing and subprime problems in 2005-2007) now appear to be universally bearish on bank stocks.
* In response to my recent change of heart on banks, the emails I’m getting and numerous financial blogs are expressing an almost unanimous disbelief in my bullish stance — though there has been limited discourse regarding my fundamental analysis. Many of the same questioned, as vociferously, my shorts in housing, private mortgage insurers, mortgage originators/servicers and homebuilders two years ago.
Excellent Long-Term Value
I don’t mean to be too glib and anecdotal. I fully recognize the formidable challenges facing many banks. I would refer readers to yesterday’s column, however, in which I expanded on the fundamental case for buying selectively in the banking industry. In that piece, I suggested that while the crowd usually outsmarts the remnants, unconventional calls (particularly following a devastating share decline) are almost always disregarded and/or criticized but contrarian bets that ignore the short-term trend, the poor stock charts and the prevailing negative bias can often yield large returns.
As I wrote on Monday, history teaches us investment, but it fails to tell us which lesson should be applied and when it should be adopted. The biggest problem I have as an investor is farsightedness (in expecting the unexpected) and I see the biggest problem with most investors (especially trigger-happy hedge funds seeking short-term satisfaction) as being shortsighted.
Bank stocks have never been so cheap, and their core profit generators (deposit growth, loan growth, spreads and net interest income) remain intact and will, in the fullness of time, turn more positively.
Buy straw hats. Banks represent excellent long-term value.
why cant we have a single follow through day of fuking losses. WTF is up with the homo hammer last hour rallies.
Kass is wrong on the banks. Still more downside, in accordance with the prophecy.
If he waits a while longer, he can get 2 straw hats for the price of one.
what is wrong with this sentence:
Apple Expo 2008 will go on without Apple, running September 17 – 20.
In Paris they are having an Apple Expo even though Apple has pulled out of it..
gonna be a lot of tables with 2nd party accessories i guess.. wow.
Crude, too many shorts bidding it up.
THE FLY CURSE IS IN!
Fly talks shit, market shoots back up…
I agree with Kass…bank stocks wayyyy oversold; I have both Wachovia and UBS…hoping to play the bounce
I have lost my mind in this market again.
Wtf happened to SMN? Thyself reverse, say I.
CME and WB are severely oversold on a woodshedder basis.
…and ABV
Mr. The Fly,
RIG is down to $145, you buying? … what say you?
Banks are a screaming buy. Where else can you get paid a 4% or 5% dividend while you wait for the PPT’s plan to unfold?
I’ll bet my FDIC insurance that investors will be very pleased with their profits in bank stocks in the next two years.
Alias:BPOE
No more inflation just liquidation. Things just don’t Jive at this point. CAUTION!
Kass is deluded.
He wrote:
In response to my recent change of heart on banks, the emails I’m getting and numerous financial blogs are expressing an almost unanimous disbelief in my bullish stance — though there has been limited discourse regarding my fundamental analysis. Many of the same questioned, as vociferously, my shorts in housing, private mortgage insurers, mortgage originators/servicers and homebuilders two years ago.
Nope. The people who thought it was wrong to be short the housing and mortgage groups in 2006 are the ones who have been using terms like “contained”, “bottoming”, “write-offs largely done”, “bottomed”, and so on ever since. Just like Kass is today.
I don’t think anyone can say with any certainty how close we are to seeing all the writeoffs that we need to see in the financials. I don’t see anything that looks like a bottom, however. I believe that there have been too few failures of financial institutions outside of mortgage origination, and I believe that the real-word economic pain is still far from a peak and hasn’t yet fed into the financials. State and local budget cuts will be creating some massive pain soon, for example. The hits to home prices at the low end of the price range haven’t yet worked their way up to higher-priced homes, but that is inevitable due to the decimation to the ranks of potential move-up buyers. Foreclosures are so numerous that the courts can’t process them as fast as they come in and the infrastructure for servicing foreclosed properties is highly inadequate.
Kass is, as others here have said, too early.
the market is dead to me.
I mentioned yesterday that CML and PAR started moving up last week and that both stocks were up 10% apiece yesterday on a shit tape.
Well, another shit tape today and both stocks closed up another 10% today.
They’ll both be acquired within a year, and someone is paying up to own them ahead of the acquisition.
CCH – did you buy, or are you “coulda, shoulda” like the rest of us?
Own a decent amount of CML @$9. Was waiting for the lockup on PAR to expire, thinking there’d be a bunch of supply hitting the market and I could buy it cheaper.
The lockup expired last week, and the stock has gone straight up since then. Go figure.
8 —> 13.5. Nothing to cry about.
Don’t bet that, we’re broke too!
_
I meant to say I own it from $8. That’s my lowwest price. My average basis is actually closer to $9.50.
It’s competitor, EqualLogic, was bought by Dell about 2 days before its IPO last fall. I went through the registration statement and figured DELL paid about 10x ’07 expected revenue for EqualLogic.
10x expected ’08 revenue will mean a $26 stock price for CML. Even 7x revenue will get me $19 per share. First quarter revenue growth was like 100% year over year, and they’ve guided to profitability in 3Q, so I’m happy to keep holding it until it gets acquired.
wow, look at that volume on SMN today
…and that TSO candle looks awful close to a gravestone…..
I just realized…
Fly = Italian
Fly = bought Wachovia and had it, on and off
Fly = sucks at predicting anything
………………Fly = GUY ADAMI
That meeting he had to go to, I’ll bet they are doing some NEW stupid shit on Fast Money tonight.
My grandma makes excellent pasta va-zoo (sic), bitches.