Tech is dead. Look at [[GOOG]], [[BIDU]] and [[MSFT]]. Dead as dead can be. Dead as a dick stuck in a door.
I’ll have you know, this is nothing more, or less, than a summer malaise. No one has an interest in defending stock prices, while the temperature in NY is 100 degrees, the banks are lying/dying, and the beaches at the Hampton’s are open for business.
This should tell you something about your Godly host, “The Fly.”
Nothing keeps me away from the trading turret. Without a doubt, it will be the death of me, putting myself through so much anguish and nonsense. However, this is what I love to do. As a painter finds pleasure in combing colors and creating beauty, I like to kick old fuckers down stairwells, especially those in wheelchairs. But, I digress.
Let’s have a ball and bank profuse amounts of coin, while the sleepers sleep and the losers lose.
I can tell you, with the utmost amount of accuracy and frankness, Willie Randolph will be fired by the All-Star break and [[CHL]] will trade in the 50’s. These two “future facts” are not debatable nor can they be stopped.
As an aside, look for the oil barrel retards to start mounting another gay rally.
Crude to $150 and the Dow to 11,750, by July.
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AAPL is loosing ground like shit.
Trading w TK also recommends shorting AAPL.
UPDATE:
also my dj/dia spread has been around .84 most of the day…something* is really trying to hold dow today.
Willie coached a good game yesterday. Why are you on him now, as opposed to Sturday, when he coached badly. Anyhow, when the ag pigs and the momo faves are getting shinkicked , then we are ready.
update. substitute managed for coached
update 2. i keep confusing my euro/jap chart with the spy.
“Let’s have a ball and bank profuse amounts of coin, while the sleepers sleep and the losers lose.” Yeah!!!! I like your style.
I think there may be one spot left on the Cubs band wagon. I can hold it for ya if you tell me what criteria Ragin uses for his scans.
All dire predictions. People with profits YTD would be wise to bank ’em, certainly by the end of this month…then go lie down in a hammock for the rest of the summer, sip on mint julips and watch MLB Extra Innings.
That chalk outline of the “duc” over at the PG is the best IBC graphic ever.
hey calvino
i know your comments have more to it …is nipponji harassing the yankees like they did a decade ago?
The Cubs are my 2nd fav team. They deserve to win a World Series, for Pete’s sake.
Dick must be buying banks with both hands today.
He thought they were a bargain 15% higher.
Fly, I live about a mile from Wrigley and agree they need to win a fucking series but I have been told if oil trades to 150 this will be all but a guarantee. I expect it to happen soon.
I must also mention that today is of utmost success for me.
The Yankees will rise and fall with Jaba. I would give him a garland of garlic to wear when A-rod is close by. Thirty million dollar hex. Johnny Damen too.
If Martay will make me rich, I will wipe my ass with Dick Cow’s beard, and send him the cleaning bill.
As a painter finds pleasure in combing (sic) colors and creating beauty, I like to kick old fuckers down stairwells, especially those in wheelchairs.
See that? Every now and then you get a typo that works, if you know what I’m sayin’?
I don’t “comb” colors, I “brush” them. Duh.
I think BLUE is Mr. Fly’s fav.
This is starting to get shitty, they are pulling tomatoes from menus.
Any SKF advice fellers?
skf is on a 45 degree rise. buy.
Hey go easy on us old people
Anon — SKF is a good “buy and harvest” position — it can be extremely volatile, which makes its options very valuable. I sold some calls against my position today.
I am also going to let the August $84 puts I sold for $9.20 a piece (!!) trade to worthless. They are close now.
the us peso gonna buckle vs the yen
yeah, what is it with you and old people. did one of them kick your ass when you were a kid? get some fucking help. take some meds, get a therapist, see a priest, do something. i am 92 and i don’t need to be reminded that i’m old.
Anon — SKF update: 23.6% retracement may act as a ceiling here, at least temporarily.
It’s at $130.05 or so. I sold the June 130’s fwiw.
The new iphone will only cost $199. AAPL is going to go through the roof!
Chivas, are you Old Man Trader? I always thought that was KC Bill.
You’re not 92. If you were you’d be trying to type into the radio, and wondering why your page wouldn’t load.
_____
Two advantages of being old:
1. Probably the last generation to collect full Social Security while everybody else is paying through their payroll taxes only to see a small part of it when they turn 90 (what will be the new age to collect SS).
2. Seniors coffee at McDonalds.
Jake,
lol. i am not oldman trader. wonder where he is from.
Tc,
you’re right, but i still have aways to collect. probably never will.
I think oldman trader could be the guy who lives in Arizona with the trailer and horses. Peachin?
wow. even JPM blew up today.
Introducing, Fly’s new nemesis.
_
Aris — and it’s about bloody time!
_
Nice iBC logo …. will prove to be Lucky!
Unloved Crocs Still Has Bite
By Robert Marcin
6/9/2008 12:44 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/newsanalysis/investing/10420430.html
My formula is to buy stocks that are down and compellingly cheap in companies with solid fundamentals. Typically there is some short-term hiccup or expected issue that has driven the share price to such attractive levels. We in the investment business call that “hair.” My stocks are undervalued because they have hair on them, especially at the bottom.
Currently, I am buying one of the hairiest stocks in the world today. The company is Crocs (CROX) , and the idea is insanely controversial. The stock is down and too cheap to be true. Unless, of course, the business tanks. Right here, Crocs represents a bimodal outcome. If the company resurrects its growth rate and fixes its inventory problem, the stock will soar. For the stock to drop from here, the business must collapse. I don’t see that happening.
Why? I love the product. I love the Santa Cruz style shoes so much, I bought three pairs. If the rest of the world discovers the same comfort and durability I did, Crocs can resume its powerful growth track. At six times forecasted earnings, the stock is screamingly cheap. Should Crocs resurrect its 20%-plus growth, the stock would soar.
There’s more to Crox than those appearance-challenged clogs with the holes, though Crocs sells them by the tens of millions. For men, it offers the Santa Cruz, and for women, the Celeste, Cleo or Capri. This product is far more than a fad.
Don’t expect any help from Wall Street on this. The Street blew it big time. At $70, every single analyst had a buy on Crocs. After a one-quarter hiccup, when the company missed sales and earnings forecasts, every single analyst downgraded the company. At $10, everyone on the Street has some version of a sell on the stock. In fact, Wall Street now has a vested interest in looking for the bad news in the story in order to support its unanimous thumbs-down on the company. The $30 million short position in Crocs by hedge funds buys a lot of negative comments and rumors from Wall Street.
Going Global
Here is my take on the fundamentals. We all know that the U.S. faces a challenging retail environment. Few have been more negative on the domestic consumer than yours truly. And I remain short of companies with U.S. consumer exposure. I don’t expect much growth from Crocs’ domestic business. But with the success of all of the new products, I do expect the company to sell a lot of shoes here.
Abroad, however, I expect Crocs’ business to explode. The rest of the world is just catching on to the utility and value of the basic water clog. With a cheap currency, Crocs can sell its European shoes for 10 euros wholesale. At that price, the product becomes virtually disposable. In Asia, Crocs are on fire in Japan, and China is just opening up. At $30 a pair, Crocs represent an affordable American-brand luxury for many emerging-market consumers. If Crocs executes well, its China market could dwarf its U.S. market in a few years.
Few analysts and investors appreciate that Crocs is a highly creative, global company with 55% of its sales abroad last quarter. And those foreign sales are growing between 50% and 100% on a year-over-year basis. Few U.S. shoe companies have such rich foreign exposure to such large untapped markets. In 2009, it is conceivable that both Europe and Asia will each surpass the U.S. in sales and profits for Crocs. Remember, global exposure, even consumer exposure, is still good these days.
Caveats on the Clogs
Now, Crocs does have some challenges. The domestic retail market is sloppy. A cool, wet spring left the company with too much inventory. And the copycats are out in force in the molded-shoe business. Crocs is not a stock for widows and orphans.
But I expect the new fashions to change the game competitively. And the company can put a bunch of the basic product into the exploding international channel. Starting in the June quarter, I expect Crocs to show a significant decline in inventory with stunning foreign sales growth. That would help the company meet or beat Wall Street expectations. And the shorts will be forced to cover at much higher prices.
As much potential as this depressed stock possesses, it holds real business risk. If Crocs significantly misses its financial targets one more time, I am gone. We will know that in a couple of months. Until now, the company has only given us verbiage that the inventory issue is being resolved, but we haven’t seen results yet in the earnings report. So we have a cheap call option on the company executing to its guidance. But I never marry any stock. If things deteriorate, I will sell my position.
However, should Crocs deliver the fundamental goods, it would resemble a stock we bought under similar conditions a few years ago: Deckers Outdoor (DECK) . Like Crocs, Deckers had strong growth interrupted by a missed quarter, inventory issues, a big short position and Wall Street loathing. When the company recovered and resumed growth, the shares appreciated nicely, like 10 times in two years form the 2005 bottom. People though we were insane for buying Deckers in 2005.
Crocs probably doesn’t have that type of upside. But it could easily triple from here if the company resumes its growth trajectory. Here’s how. In a flat U.S. environment, international growth continues to the point of Asia and Europe each matching the U.S. in size. That gives us about $1.4 billion in sales next year. With profit margins flat in 2009 vs. 2008, the company would make about $2.50 per share. In growth mode, the stock should trade for a footwear-group average multiple, currently around 14 times next year’s earnings. That generates a $35 stock, and that’s not bad for a stock at $9 and change today.
The arithmetic is pretty simple, and the devil is in the execution. I expect Crocs management to execute. If this idea intrigues you, go to the local Crocs store or to its Web site and do some research for yourself. Try the shoes. You might conclude, as I have, that this story is no crock.
Fuck, is MON going to open up -10 soon?
Fuck you and your ugly-ass shoes.
Doug Kass famously posted that banks had bottomed on May 29th. Since then:
BAC has dropped $6, a loss in market cap of $27 billion.
C has dropped $3, or $16 billion in market cap.
WFC has dropped $3, shedding $10 billion in market cap.
The combined destruction in valuation is about $53 billion in 8 trading days.
I think he was early.
AA is moonshotting.
Gyaps — don’t fergit RS.
_
Old men rule
I guess the PPT isn’t belly up yet. When will they give the fuck up?
I Love NY!
Study: 1 in 4 adults in NYC have herpes virus
Jun 9 01:00 PM US/Eastern
Why the Sex & the City Movie is a Pop Phenomenon
NEW YORK (AP) – A city Health Department study finds that more than a fourth of adult New Yorkers are infected with the virus that causes genital herpes.
The study, released Monday, says about 26 percent of New York City adults have genital herpes, compared to about 19 percent nationwide.
The department says genital herpes can double a person’s risk for contracting HIV.
Herpes can cause painful sores, but most people have no recognizable symptoms.
Among New Yorkers, the herpes rate is higher among women, black people and gay men.
The health department urges consistent use of condoms, and says its STD clinics offer free, confidential herpes testing.
Dollar was fucking mudstomped today thus allowing all of the homo fag names to run (POT, X etc…). 2’s and 30’s got car jacked. I would be betting against bonds here personally. These cocks will be raising rates if anything unless they want the dollar at zero.
Afterthought: Thats one hell of a drug party.
Drugs, Not me ….I’m through with Buzz!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N35rPVJIyQ