Had you listened to Cramer’s bottom call yesterday, you were “ape raped” today.
Listen to me. I know you have a naturally bullish disposition. You want flowers to line your white picket fence and champagne to flow from your garden hose. You want things to go your way, while absurd misfortune strikes your neighbors.
I know. Believe me; I was once like you.
I remember buying stocks into the 2000 meltdown, with reckless abandon. Vividly, I recall losing a personal fortune, all the while Larry Kudlow and Ned Riley were telling me “everything is alright.”
Things aren’t alright. As a matter of fact, things are entirely fucked, stemming from the debanking of America.
Not just the consumer, mind you. The country is broke, like a crackwhore in a prison cell.
This is what I want you to do:
Take out a sheet of paper and write down all the pros and cons of the economy and stock market. Then, take that list and recite it to your wife, since she is much smarter than you and does not think with her anatomy. She will give you cogent advice.
As you know, “The Fly” took off his bank hedges, with precision. He is now net short the banks and a variety of other names, like [[LVS]] and [[VMC]].
My only regret is holding commodity stocks, since they are being “ape raped” too. Nonetheless, I remain steadfast in my belief that I will be right, while everyone who bets against me is wrong, naturally.
Pile on NOTE: Check out Cramer fav [[PH]], part of his group ‘new technology’ plays, around $90.
UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage on the Wamu non-event, which was hyped by CNBC.
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Great post.
Jeanyus.
I tell you again, Mr. “The Fly,” if you posted a web show that was merely a rebuttal to the Cramer the Clown show and/or posts and charged a subscription for it, you would be a richer man.
Millionaire, easy.
Thousandaire, at least.
FLY IS FUCKING GOD
I mean who the fuck can come up with this shit day after day.
FLY- your shit is more John Blaze
Except Jake.
Who’s right (if early) on these Ag stocks, again.
__
And yes, “despite” any and all previous primate sexual assaults. I will never “go for drinks” with a pack of orangutans again, okay?
Orange-furred fuckers.
__
Hey Cigar breath,
Stay the fuck away from my schtick, m’kay?
____
“The Fly” doesn’t do web shows or tv.
Invite Steve over for Mojito’s[sic] and Ribeyes..its the right thing to do.
I’m surprised the PPT lets the maestro[sic] off his leash.
PAC Dub’s about ready to shit the shower and ERII doesn’t give a fuck what the market does.
And Kass says he wants to short WM here.
Somebody needs to come out with an IPO for a mustache replacement company. That market’s ready to pop.
BOOM gets “frenched”
Too bad, “The Fly.”
Boomer— were you long son?
Looks like my first ever BOOM trade will be profitable.
Thank you for ‘dynamically’ sucking at earnings.
_______
Somewhere (edit: right here!), Coach Coffee is having a laugh.
Listen, I like this post, but I have a little problem with it. I have a “friend” who was “ape-raped” once and it’s really not a joking matter.
My “friend” can’t even go to the zoo anymore. It’s like that.
-DT
I was banned from the san diego zoo at age 13. No lie. No word on if they’re still enforcing it, but boy, I got in a lot of trouble for that.
DT- your friend probably panicked.
Its much better if you just close your eyes and enjoy the ride.
BTW is COSTCO 2 up on the internets yet?
Boomer– Give me 20 separators right now and I want you to touch every line!!!
Yeah, So? It’s Some Profit-Taking
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/31/2008 3:51 PM EDT
Do people want me to rescind this bottom call on the basis of today’s action? Is this what it is supposed to be about? Because we are having profit-taking?
If anything, I am seeing more positives than negatives. I beg to differ with many here that the increased position in Washington Mutual (WM – commentary – Cramer’s Take) doesn’t matter. I cannot see how the Sovereign (SOV – commentary – Cramer’s Take) stake that’s been taken is meaningless.
I cannot also be negative about the oil decline — that’s part and parcel of the bottom.
Sure the action is nasty today. But I am not changing my mind. Not at all. More later of course.
Funny you mention the paper, I got out of bed last night to write down this:
Recent Bottom had no significance; no capitulation and no big event to spur rally. There will need to be at “least” a retest of the lows to make sure the bottom will hold.
@Danny: Are you still allowed in SeaWorld? Or did you defile poor ol’ Shamu as well?
@DT: When people go to therapy, they always talk about how their “friend” has such and such problems. Then it turns out that the “friend” is actually a projection. So…is there something you need to get off your chest, a la BOOMER and his traumatic childhood basketball experience?
@Cramer: Two wrongs don’t make a right. Or as Cousin Avi says, “Shut up and sit down, you big, bald fuck.”
Boomer is a puss.
‘Ey, ovah heah!
Wheahs zat liddle pooftah Boomah, anyways?
“I’m a fuggin’ musician,” he sez.
“I’m fuggin’ SEN-zitive,” he sez.
“Getoutta heah” I sez. “Go play yoah fuggin banjo,” I sez to him.
___
Where’s the anklets and bracelets for that powder sniffing egomaniac JJ?
Danny Dorf X10; The Multiplier effect!!
I’m changing my name from BOOMER to BUSTER, jus so yaz know
You crack me up Jake.
Anyone see the shit bag BOOM laid oo investors? Guided down. Bitches. Bunch of french bitches
coach — boomer said he sold before the close I think.
dpeezy – it was a field trip and me and my friends were shaking the gondola, spitting and throwing things off it, and calling the gondola behind us filthy cunts or something retarded. Turns out my friends weren’t behind us, because the zoo people sensed trouble and got on behind us. They disapproved of our childlike behavior and we were asked not to come back to the zoo ever. It was pretty sweet in hindsight.
From my recent post on BOOM:
“The weekly chart shows that the downward momentum is slowing. The MACD is showing a clear positive divergence. The stock bounced near multi-year support at $25.00. Unless there is some evil lurking in the BOOM’s balance sheet, or in the industry, I can’t see that the sellers have a lot of juice left here.”
Evidently, evil existed.
I think Septiembre is going to be muy, muy malo, amigos.
DT- ok, show us on the doll where the ape touched your friend.
Yes, I sold all and shhh… shorted a little too! Hee hee.
Poor BOOM is dead meat. Lowered guidance. Buh-bye.
I am now posting as BUSTER.
bah. this market has aids.
‘hey look at me, i’m still alive while i take 35 different drugs every 4 hours’
we all know how this story ends, and it’s not with clowns on cnbc calling ‘bottoms’.
I thought you’re posting as Coach Coffee. Sooo very confuzzled.
__________
The zoo is overrated anyway, when you have the freaking PB & MB.
Coach Coffee, BOOMER, BUSTER, Chief Bulging Wallet, DOOMER, a few others. I try to make it obvious.
Shed – evil indeed. My feeling is that something like this could have been warned in mgmt commentary prior to earns. Its too bad for the bagholders, of which I have been chief.
I will have you know, all of you are playing the market Atari sytle, using dots, lines and median variance indicators that you dont even understand, as the fly just said, all is fucked up. I think US government debt should be downgraded, they are now holding the fucking bag. Once again, I fucking laugh about your head and shoulders crap, cup and handle and the rest of patterns. Game is over.
hahahahahahahahahahahahhahhahhaha
now cramer is saying a ‘bottom’ is not a bottom, but a place where you can ‘start to buy stocks’.
well, i guess if you tell people to buy stocks every day, you have to be right sooner or later.
All Around the World
Bill Poole has no idea
J.C. was cheering a guvmint by, of, and for the corporations last nite. It was all I could stomach.
Oh! Excellent choice, Mahstah Q4!
I do so approve!
__
i am rather amused that people (even people here) are even talking about a bottom.
we are only 9 months into a bear market; remember the last bear market (2000-2003)? that was caused by a bunch of idiots bidding up tech companies…a rather silly episode actually.
today we have the worlds’ tightly coupled, derivative driven, geared-up to 30 times financial system on the verge of collapse. its so serious, even the illusion of “free markets” has been thrown out the window (numerous times) in an attempt to save it.
what you all should be shitting your pants about is the fact we are down 3000 points, and we arent even a year into it.
Folks,
I find that in this type of choppy environment, you need to pick very specific spots, or risk being decapitated. Moreover, it’s clear that healthcare must be at the center of your strategy over the next few weeks.
I only purchased 2 new stocks today for my portfolio: GG (which I sold early morning when the metals lost their mojo for a microscopic gain) and CMED (which I still hold overnight and continue to love going into next week).
I was confused by the action today. In all honesty, I was expecting a sideways to mildly strong day, but in this market, you need to be ready to dodge rocket-propelled grenades on a day-to-day basis.
You see, the market lacks clarity right now. In May, when the market started rolling over (the weekly sported what looked to be the top-end of a right shoulder in a massive H&S pattern across the indices — now confirmed with a downside break), we had nice fluid moves to the downside. We were coming off a period of low-volatility and multiple sectors were beginning to crack in unison (i.e. insurers, banks, brokers, retailers, etc). There was steady selling on the way down and no real counter-trend upswings.
Now, however, we are in no-man’s-land. The news keeps getting worse (GDP, June CPI, MER’s shady CDO sale, regional bank closings) and we’re not cascading lower as before — just backing-and-filing from a DOW 200 one day to a DOW -200 the next. The problem is that we’re brutally oversold on a weekly basis. So bullshit bank stocks have wild whipsaw days and shit like PALM, LAMR and UPS manages to levitate due to asshat bottom-fishing antics. I don’t play LAMR, PALM, or UPS (well, I have traded UPS a few times in the past – so that’s not entirely true) but they are some of the smaller stocks I watch for sentiment. And, despite Fly’s bearishness, I must admit I don’t see a clear-cut move lower just yet. We will either consolidate here or test 11,700 or 12,000 on the DOW.
Sure, I could be wrong, but it seems that the short side is a difficult game right now. It’s not that the fundamentals haven’t deteriorated — in fact, things keep getting worse. But stocks don’t simply drop like lead. And this market needs more lateral work for enough bullshit bottom-fishers to get swept into stocks (perhaps, over the next 2-3 weeks) so as to, then, provide supply on the way down for another fluid move lower.
On the flipside, if boom-we’re-fucked bears like Fly are correct, we continue lower, albeit, in a slow, choppy grind, which leaves us in a constant oversold state that slaughters many a knife-catcher on the way down.
When I trade, I look for an edge, and quite frankly, I don’t see an edge right now playing commodities long (every commodity right now is in a broken trend) or short (too oversold). In addition, though I see banks, brokers and insurers as an exercise in earnings trickery, they are very oversold as well — so the risk-reward just isn’t there in the event you’re holding for a more protracted move (unless, of course, you hit the jackpot and you manage to short that toxic regional that drops from $12 to $0.50 in a week).
The alternative? Long biotech. Look, I’m pretty bearish right now. In fact, I think the US will lose its AAA status in the next 4-5 years (I’ll leave that for another post). The US is beyond fucked. But we’re here to make money. So, let’s get a sense of where the money flowed on a day like today…
In doing a Telechart scan of the percentage movers today on the ETF front, these were the top performers:
1. FXP – Ultrashort China
2. REC – Ryder Inverse S&P Select Energy
3. HGI – Claymore Zacks International Yield HOG Index
4. SAW – FocusShares ISE Homebuilders
5. DUG – Proshares Ultrashort Oil & Gas
6. XBI – SPDR S&P Biotech
Excluding the Inverse ETF’s, which I have no intention of playing right now, the only long ETF’s were HGI (WTF is that?), SAW (fuck the homebuilders), and XBI (yes!).
CMED is a testament to the fact that while the averages were getting sucker-punched by market bullies, biotech was catching a bid.
And CMED wasn’t alone. In case you missed it, IMCL (yup, the Martha Stewart stock that hasn’t done jack for the last 5 yrs) was bot at a 37% premium to yesterday’s closing price by Bristol Myers (BMY). Don’t forget: last week, DNA received a big bid from Roche. I haven’t seen this type of big-boy M&A activity in the biotech space in a while.
Moreover, Contract Research Organizations (in lay terms: the dudes that do pipeline R&D for big pharma) like CVD (featured here about 2 weeks ago) have been on an upward march (in fact, CVD ignited today, breaking out of a multi-month base ahead of earnings). CRL, CVD’s lower P/E cousin, looks poised to follow tomorrow. Stocks I featured here last week as heavy insider buying stocks such as AMLN, IVGN, and GHDX have also begun to lift off.
The bottomline? The market is fucked, yes. LEH will probably go under and Meredith Whitney will be Time Magazine’s Woman of the Year when the dust settles – for all we know.
But you, my friends, have a choice. You can get spooked by the big bearish headlines and try to short the market at its lows or you can play the only spot of strength in a market that’s deeply oversold. I like those odds. And, at the end of the day, a trade is only as good as its risk-reward.
See you all tomorrow.
-Phil_from_Brazil
Hey Mexican, you are wrong. Dead wrong, about technical analysis.
Do a little reading. May I suggest you read some of the gurus who were trading in the 70s and early 80s?
What you will find is that when the market goes to shit, when volatility reigns king, and when fundamental analysis fails because no one knows what fair value is relative to a basket of turds, technical analysis is the only thing that works. This has been stated numerous time by traders who I guess are a tad better than you.
Have you followed my posts? Go back and read every post under my broad market analysis category. You’ll see the market moves have been easy to call, using only TA.
Good luck with your “downgrading of gov’t debt” and whatever other system you have for analyzing market action. The frustration that is evident in your comments leads to me believe your having a difficult time with things. That’s too bad.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080731/hl_nm/stress_finance_dc
You’re not the only one.
Phil, did you miss UTHR? I featured that one here as well.
I’m still holding CVD since you mentioned it a week or so ago.
Funny. Both were bought from technical patterns. Oh way, technicals don’t work any more. lol…
Wood,
I absolutely MISSED UTHR. And it pissed me off. I had it on my personal list of stocks to watch, but somehow got sidetracked by CMED this morning — I had a weird gut feeling CMED would ignite today, so I was watching it like a hawk in the first 30 min of trading. I also absolutely loved the CMED setup (market getting raped and CMED going negative to positive in unconscpicuous fashion), so I loaded up. UTHR was a gorgeous setup though. When I got around to checking it later in the day, it had already busted a move.
I’m a cheap ass when it comes to entry points. Whenever I get shitty entry, I wind up just scalping, like I did with ZNH (a Ragin pick) a couple of days back after an overnight hold in which the stock tried to break out then started to come back in. So, I decided to take a pass with UTHR.
The thing I find in this market is that the intraday moves are getting very choppy. The real money is being made picking a good entry point and holding for a week or two — think ALMN, PKI, GHDX (insiders have been buying GHDX like fucking water in a desert in the last 3 months), CMED, and, yes, absolutely, UTHR. Another fine example of a good 4-5 day swing trade was CRM — a Ragin pick (though it didnt see 50 (yet), Ragin and I rode it from the 70 area to 64 and change). Again, intraday has been a bit more challenging in the last week (at least for me).
Keep posting your ideas, Wood. I’ve been learning a lot with you, Ragin, Alpha, Danny, Fly and the rest of the IBC crew. This is easily the best damn blog on the web. Period.
All the best!
-Phil
I have read Meredith’s report on the top 5 banks and it is online sonewhere – an Oppenheimer product – she said 3 of them would perform as the SP 500 and 2 would underperform – big deal! She had a lot of graphs showing how home prices correlated to the securitized mortgage stuff so I admit I stopped at that point. Hey, a massive amount of bad mortgages led to overpriced and overbuilt home markets in many places, thats all.
Mexican:
Did you take math when you got your GED. If you don’t understand something don’t put it down. You don’t have a leg to stand on. It just isn’t that easy. Its like saying you don’t need brake lights to drive a car. I am not putting you down. Tec. analysis is not alyays correct but if you understand it along with the rest of the bullshit you will become a grest trader. Check out Charles Kirk site for some information. He is one of the best to learn from. You will see Woodshedder in a different light.
CVS broke down out of some congestion today. Looks like there’s room to run on the downside.
Phil-
Please post in PG *****
Juice..hasn’t CVS has been a Wall Street darling for the last 2 years…WAG trading at lower PE is egregious. WAG to $40.. CVS to $31-33.
I know of someone who was 8 figures deep into ELN. I think the cost basis was mid 20’s. I imagine this has been a rough week for them.
HEALTHCARE/BIOTECH HITLIST
I figured that with all the rambling I did about biotech/healthcare, I owed you guys a good gameplan for the next couple of weeks.
I just went through my scan again of healthcare/biotech names experiencing ridiculous insider buying and sporting a cap of +400M, a price higher than $5 and decent liquidity. Then, I sifted through these stocks and selected the most decent-looking ones. Some of these should be familiar as theyve been mentioned as of late.
ARNA
HUM
LHCG
OSIR
HS
HALO
ALNY
BAX
IDIX
COV
GHDX
*note: I’ve excluded some stocks that have already had sick runs — as they no longer present good risk-reward opportunities for fellow IBCers.
Here’s another list of good-looking biotech/healthcare stocks with okay-to-excellent fundies that I also happen to like (just keep in mind that I’ve prioritized the technicals, so read the captions to get a better read on the fundies):
CMED (top pick — sick pattern + 28 P/E + 38% annual EPS growth + beat EPS last Q by 58% yoy)
fundmental take: P/E in line with industry w/ explosive EPS growth (cheap and best of breed).
PKI (sick pattern + 24 P/E + no info on annual EPS growth + beast EPS last Q by 20% yoy )
fundamental take: P/E in line with industry but EPS growth fairly-valued by P/E
UTHR (sick pattern + 77 P/E + annual EPS growth unavailable + beat EPS this Q by 125% yoy)
fundamental take: Explosive EPS growth but P/E reminds me of ISRG.
CRL (sick pattern + 28 P/E + 16% annual EPS growth + beat EPS last Q by 12.5%)
fundamental take: P/E in line with industry but EPS growth unimpressive and indicates the stock is slightly overvalued relative to its growth
i 2nd mrkcbill’s motion to move Phil’s insights to the PG…
i hear they have free avatars (while supplies last)
all he has to do is sign up
Phil, look at my latest post.
My screens found several that yours did.
Get you a PG password.
Phil from brazil, what do you think about this chart?
Wood, I’m looking into the PG right now.
-Phil
Scum, for fuck’s sake, why are you using yahoo? That chart gives almost zero technical info.
Use stockcharts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UBB&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p23248285262
Wood, hell I look at whatever chart I happen to be looking at. If that’s all you have to say, sigh, I’ll go over to the yahoo! board. Sheesh.
BTW, is your name phil, and are you from brazil?
Specifically I was wondering if UBB was like the GS of Brazil, or if they, oh for fuck’s sake, never mind.
Yeah, that’s all I have to say. That chart was ridculously useless. Enjoy the boards over at yahoo.
Wood, FYI, the yahoo financial has a metric shitload of info. You, my shobbity shnobbity friend are as useless as tits on a bull. I have never gotten anything of value from you and you always pipe in uninvited. Go back under your bridge.
Yes, believe it or not, my name is Phil (father’s American), and yes, I’m from Brazil — more specifically, Rio. I was born and raised in Rio de Janeiro, though I now live in NYC (it’s been 2 and a half yrs).
As for Unibanco, they’re good. Best of breed is Bradesco but pretty much every Brazilian bank — be it, Itaú, Bradesco, Unibanco, etc — they all essentially have the same money-making formula. Basically, they lend at usury-like rates (think, 100-200% per annum) and borrow money at the interbank Selic rate in Brazil of 13% OR, preferably, from the US banking system at prime +3% to 4%. The spreads are absolutely ridiculous.
Brazil is also a country of little per capita consumer debt and high net saving per capita, so these banks all have mega-leverage in terms of deposit balance sheets. This all explains why they’ve done so well. But you want to make money NOW. The hell with the past. I understand.
Though Brazil has lot’s of good things going for it (probably will emerge as the best emerging market economy once this global weakness/recession patch is worked out), right now, Brazil is softening up. The EWZ entered bear-market territory in the last few weeks — now below the 50-day and 200-day MA’s. The financials will invariably weaken as well.
UBB recently broke down below its 50 and 200-days with the EWZ. It has, however, bounced back and may represent a low-risk shorting opportunity with stops at 137.50. The only problem though is that all emerging markets are super oversold and this is the strongest. I know a few people that keep trying to short the EWZ (b/c it “hasn’t dropped a lot yet” vs. a China or India) and have gotten all chopped up this year.
My advice: fuck the UBB short. Look for healthcare longs. That’s where the fluid moves will be coming. But, hey, it’s your money.
-Phil
Hey scum bucket, you are even more stupid than I previously imagined. Your post asked for chart analysis, not metric analysis.
Lets try again.
Scum says, “Hey Phil from Brazil, what do you think about the financial metrics of UBB?”
I would have said…NOTHING.
Phil,
Thanks. A bunch of health care stuff is brewing. BRL is suing everyone in sight. A bunch of companies just got listed on the ^RUS. There is more stuff I can’t think of off the top of my head. I was considering just trying a broad based health care fund or something along those lines.
Wood, we always get off on the wrong foot, you’re probably right about me being stupid. ;\
Scum, I’m probably being a dickhead.
No hard feelings.
BPOE,
Peace man, I just dont believe in Technical analysis, but if it works for you, cool. I dont make quick trades, my trades are 2 or 3 months long, and I always use Fundamental Analysis.
Brazilian Guy.
China went south, India went south, Russia went south, guess where Mexico and Brazil are going?
Brazil econ news
Geez,Fly replacing Wizard’s poof your bs trading account is gone with Cramer’s bullish ranting mug…This market is showing no mercy!
I’m starting a write-in campaign to have Fly be on the Conan O’Brian show – he’s supposed to have Dillon Rattigan on tonight. WTF use is that? At the very least I know the Fly would be funny!
The Mexican,
I agree Brazil will follow as well. The problem is this trade could be choppy as hell, though, for a 2-3 month horizon, it could very well work nicely. I’m not married to the notion that Brazil will not sell off.
My only point to Scum was that a more fluid trade is long healthcare — given how oversold everything is. That’s all.
-Phil
Ugh, ^RUT, not ^RUS, Duh.
My point with this month old link is that pension funds , TIAA Cref, et al, buy the ^RUA indiscriminately, which may give some a bit of a boost.
Scum,
Excellent article on Brazil. Loved it.
Keep up the good posts.
-Phil
Just testing the avatar.