Pay Attention to the Stock God
Many of you wouldn’t know greatness if his cleats were stuck in your chest. “The Fly” is in the process of making his second greatest call of 2008 and most of you are doubting him.
Not only are you doubting him, you are not paying attention.
Often times, “The Fly” could care less if you read his blog or take advantage of his superior instincts and intelligence quotient. However, this time, you need to watch.
Speaking to my “smart friends,” I can tell you they are BIG TIME oil bears. In addition, one of them is heavily long Fannie Mae [[FNM]] , “based upon the technicals.” Without besmirching him too greatly, I say he is 100% wrong on both fronts.
Under no circumstance, aside from a criminal act, should the government enter Fannie at the equity level. Therefore, it is likely the stock will go to zero.
As for oil:
The trade is crowded to the downside. Everyone is betting against it, due to “dollar strength” and other gay stuff, like: “hey it didn’t go up on that Russian thing ova there.”
Look you, I have zero patience to explain how I operate and when I will catch fire.
Just know, “The Fly” is on fire, in a very egregious way, with year to date gains topping 45%—at the present.
Top picks: [[DIG]] , [[RKH]] , [[UYG]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]]
‘Cane Update: Via Dr. Masters.
However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.
oil, dead wrong. fnm, maybe right.
it’s all about symmetry, oil trade will get just as crowded to the downside as it did to the upside.
your smart friends will be right about oil.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:28 pmFly - didn’t know you were flammable…
FNM is going to die a slow and painful death - the only complaint I have it that it’s taking a bit too long and that it’s not painful enough.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:31 pmSometimes you just have a feel for when things are going to go your way…I sense you are in one of those moments.
Likely many will look back and say, “Gee Fly, wish I piggybacked you on that trade” but instead they are looking for the next uptick in MVIS.
Congrats on the monster year — be sure to hang on to those gains…
BTW - nice to see your flexibility with SKF and short the banks positions.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:37 pmSorry piker latest reports say Gustav windspeed has dropped to 50 mph…you lose
August 27th, 2008 at 4:40 pmUm FLY…..your smart friends are smart for a reason…..
August 27th, 2008 at 4:47 pmYou’re all losers. The whole lot of you.
Chivas:
You’ve been wrong since birth. Talk less, listen more.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:48 pmFly,
How does one become your client and hand over his/her money for you to manage?
August 27th, 2008 at 4:51 pmFly you think FXI may be ready to go up?
August 27th, 2008 at 4:52 pmdon’t you mean write less and read more?
thank you fly, i really appreciated your comments.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:53 pmDamn you Chivas.
“The Fly” does NOT accept internet money, for it is dirty. Moreover, he does not want new clients.
However, it’s worth noting he does accept “new money.”
Wait for “The PPT” to launch.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:54 pm“D**n you, Chivas.”
What the deuce?
It appears that the return of Senor Pottymouth is a bit premature, if I may be so bold.
Most disappointing.
Off to vespers now.
August 27th, 2008 at 5:04 pmlol
August 27th, 2008 at 5:14 pmNo pottymouth Fly here–He was addressing me. Me and my dirty internet money, which Shelia Bair and Dick Fuld are currently fighting to the death for. To the death with unsharpened #2 pencils.
August 27th, 2008 at 5:19 pmAhhh, the child of Prohibitionists, I deduce. BTW, it is my understanding that Mr. Fuld’s staff no longer allows pencils in the “Executive Suite,” owing both to how their “leader” has used them to play Sudoku with the books in the past and to the fact that pencils are no longer an affordable luxury to the hemorrhaging firm.
Mr. Fuld is therefore fighting to the death, as it were, with unsharpened #2.
For those “interested” in the oil discussion, I urge you to read the most recent update by Jeff Masters, made kindly available above. Being a “scientist” and not so much an “investor,” Dr. Masters kind of “buries the lead,” but if I may quote one actionable passage:
“…the oil production areas are concentrated along the Louisiana and Texas coast. If Gustav makes a landfall on the right side of its cone of uncertainty, in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, the oil and gas infrastructure might not be significantly affected. However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.”
The storm is also slowing, which, at the least, means the rigs they’ve already begun to evacuate will be idle a bit longer than anticipated. At worst, it suggests that the storm might gain more strength over the Gulf’s warm waters.
It’s still early, and these things are always difficult to predict, but this storm is unlikely to be a “non-event” as many in the “financial media” have seemed to want to characterize it.
(I’ve also been stupidly long PBR, NOV, DVN & others forever, plus recently doubling down with DIG, so I could just be talking my book. Grain of salt and all that…)
August 27th, 2008 at 5:45 pmThe Fly is God
August 27th, 2008 at 6:35 pmThe Fly is God
The Fly is God
Senor Fly. I salute you with humble bowing of head, and mucho respecto for your cajones. Damn is hardly a profanity unless you are an asshat motherfucker.
August 27th, 2008 at 6:42 pmThe Fly is made from win and awesome.
August 27th, 2008 at 7:11 pmThe oil run is over, at least for this year. This “oh my god, hurricanes in the gulf!” mentality will fade.
Most of the new rigs were built to withstand hurricanes, Gustav may evacuate the platforms for a couple of days, but thats it. Everyones acting as if this is the first time a gulf hurricane has ever spun up..
August 27th, 2008 at 7:22 pmRemember, this is the same douche that was trying to short commodities on the ride up. The trend in oil is down and any smart trader would short the rips.
August 27th, 2008 at 7:26 pmWake It Up
August 27th, 2008 at 7:38 pmWake It Up, again
August 27th, 2008 at 8:08 pmLong Banks/ Long Oil seems like a pairs trade. You’re never going to get big dick gains like that.
What’s the hardest trade to make right now? The Fly is only halfway there.
http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/2879/august2708wy6.png
Study this, and just know thess red support/resistance lines where drawn weeks ago. Also note Homies, Brokers and GOLD were the top gainers, yes GOLD. Odd No?
August 27th, 2008 at 8:29 pmYou guys talk a lot of smack for pikers. I’ve yet to see any of you offer ideas, barring Juice and Jake, on a consistent basis—yet you are here to critique.
Up 45% YTD and you have the gaul to give me advice. Even if you question my gains, since it is my word versus yours, check the archives and bare witness to Godliness.
Typical proletariat fodder, the lot of you are.
My patience wears thin.
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:03 pmPffft, I take your 45% gains and double them.
Last time I offered my ideas, the next day you ranted like an overweight man wearing flip-flops in the kiddy pool
Even now, I am using your own advise Fly, you are the one not sticking to your guns.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:14 pmup 45% ytd
i am proud of you my son.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:31 pmshort 5 crude oil futures as we speak and holding
August 27th, 2008 at 9:42 pm“Pakistan Exchange Sets Floor on Stock Prices to Stop P
plunge ”
“Individual securities will remain free to trade within the normal daily limits, “but not below the floor-price level of Aug. 27,” the exchange said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. ”
What the fuck is going on? Not that our allies matter a lot when it comes to capitalism and the financial markets.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:50 pmAnyone advocating the shorting of oil is a gosh darn communist or Iranian sympathizer. just as the Fly knows my next kick will be a roundhouse, oil will continue to rise as sure as the fist inside my beard.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pmso what happens when the floor is hit? anyone who wants to sell gets the floor price? suck to be a MM. or, stock halted, you cant sell/ your capital is frozen, until??
August 27th, 2008 at 9:58 pm