The Hedges Are Coming Off
I am going net long the banks. That’s right.
If only for a few days, “The Fly” wants to be a patriotic bank lover again—via siding with the Government—waiting for bailouts and such.
I know it seems asinine, because it is!
Just know, anyone who has an iota of importance on Wall Street (as you can see I am still here) is on vacation right now. Therefore, it’s the perfect time to manipulate stocks, on low volume, through egregious government intervention.
So, as of now, I am net long the banks, via (RKH: 61.14 -9.53%) and (UYG: 3.74 -19.22%) . Let’s see how long that lasts.
Also, I see some of you are non-believers in Hurricane Gustav, due to some recent tracking report.
Hogwash.
While it’s true, the “Deacon of Death” trade is crowded; it’s far from dead. The storm is 5 days away. There is plenty of time for people to get all panicky, covering their oil shorts, in anticipation of oil rigs getting knocked offline in the Gulf.
At the present, my favorite picks are Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: 0.00 N/A) , (UYG: 3.74 -19.22%) , (DIG: 21.42 -23.23%) and (IEO: 30.37 -17.02%) .
UPDATE: Accuweather’s recent model
Fly - How long would you give LM before it starts working against you?
August 27th, 2008 at 11:45 amI agree, this feels like a rerun of the Christmas rally. Not going to break through 1261 on this volume, might as well get long.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:49 amLM is doomed either way.
Wait for the redemptions.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:56 amAccuweather is very low-end and they apparently havent looked at the models in the last 24 hours. Louisiana eastward is at greatest threat. NO is currently down the center-line.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:58 amHow dare you insult Joe Bastardi.
Anyone with a name like that demands respect.
Need I remind you of your past tracking models, Mr. Verita5?
August 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pmTrue - The PPT has a low volume window to scare shorts out of the financials.
The crooked fuckers also have a perfect window to trash crude going into the republican convention - all it takes is a mention of releasing barrels from the SPR.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:05 pmWe’re five days out and Gustav has not yet hit the warm Gulf waters, so pay attention to the cone, not the red dashed line. At this point, the accuracy of the storm track is plus or minus 200 to 300 miles in either direction. A westward track is better for the oil and gas platforms, but not better for traders going long oil and gas. Go here to see where the rigs are located.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:07 pmI will post an update of my personal track, in the Peanut Gallery.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:17 pmSomething seems weird, I take back that rally comment.
Adding to shorts.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:18 pmWhat!!??
Cubs:
I notice you are consistently on the opposite side of the God trade. You need to practice more Costanza trading.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:23 pmLook at KBH for instance. This is a trap. Fre and FNM up again? Come on.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:39 pmNUVA looks like it wants to bounce here …. just saying
Fly … how bout KRE & KBE?
August 27th, 2008 at 12:46 pmBozo Cramer put a note in the columnist commentary citing that he did not call multiple bottoms in housing.
Long live The Fly — one day IBC will surpass TSCM!
August 27th, 2008 at 1:05 pmThis market is remarkable only in terms of sheer “homosity”. AAaaahhhh, bullshit.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:09 pmPrediction- Some day Veritas will be Joe Bastardi’s boss and when he refuses to get a shave and a haircut Veritas will fire him. Veritas will then become the head meteorologist at the Goldman commodity group, move next door to the Fly (buying Dave’s house) and then call INS on Fly’s illegal Mexican gardeners.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:14 pmQuick Alert- ARD looks like it has reversed, from right where my crayons drew a line.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:20 pmI’m bored. Can I start a rumor here? Something like, JAVA buyout by private equity firm, valued at $30/share???
August 27th, 2008 at 1:38 pmIt seems that the right side of the storm will be the area
of interest, since Often the right side of a hurricane causes the worst storm surge, winds, and tornadoes.
Hey Hey
August 27th, 2008 at 1:50 pmSoutheastern Management owns $1bill worth of JAVA stock.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:57 pmhttp://www.247wallst.com/2008/08/sun-microsyst-1.html
Oh for those days in 1999-2000.
Thanks TC!!! It’s probably only worth a half billion by now.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:00 pmWhen was the last time you saw MA trade shitty on a a 100+pt Dow rally?
August 27th, 2008 at 2:02 pmRally? Rally? Paging Merlin- Paging Merlin- Merlin please report to customer service…
August 27th, 2008 at 2:15 pm“How dare you insult Joe Bastardi.
Anyone with a name like that demands respect.”
:clapping:
POOF, your bullshit oil & gas production is gone for a coupla months.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:25 pmGet your own name, bitches. Don’t use my stuff.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:30 pmTodd Harrison
12:39:30 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Chatter Box!
Heads up Minyans–we spoke this morning about the potential for mandates and agendas to be announced in an attempt to spark an equity rally.
The unconfirmed chatter making the rounds on the Street is that an important Treasury statement is imminent.
If true—and there’s clearly no way to tell if it is until it’s announced–it would fit nicely into both what we wrote about this morning and the shrewd timing involved (as ranks thin into the holiday weekend).
This indeed is getting interesting and interestinger.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:37 pmThose dots and dashes on the Accuweather map read “Buy RIG and NOV”.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:42 pmExpect delivery tomorrow.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:47 pmForget playdoh, do the Dew (see website above)!
August 27th, 2008 at 2:52 pmThe DOW will not fall below 11,000 until atleast March 2009.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:52 pmSo THE FLY should just quit blogging…..HAHA!
Cramer, bottoms, we don’t need no stinking bottoms. Hey gringos, big storm forming. The pants are becoming filled with shit no.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:53 pmI am long gringo banks along with senor fly. The senor is seldom wrong. Adios compadres and homos.
Today is the anniversary of SRV death in 1990.
Merely a tribute to my favorite Texas bluesman.
August 27th, 2008 at 3:07 pm[...] I sold out out of 95% of my inverse etfs’s yesterday, leaving me net long banks—in a very egregious way. [...]
August 28th, 2008 at 11:51 am