This commodity is driving me batty. It’s scrambling my brains, with the constant “homo hammering.”
Where are all the powerful oil men, the oligarchs, when you need them?
Thank heavens, my recent forays into [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] and [[FXP]] has hedged my disastrous commodity bets. Just so you know, as a result of this madness, I sold out of my Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] position, exercising a little discipline. The way I figure, I’ll be chasing Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] down anyway. Why hold a second tier name?
On the bright side, it looks as if I’ll be able to curse, literally any day. As you know, I vowed to refrain from using foul language on the site, until the Dow hit 11,000. My confidence is unwaivering. My IQ is much higher.
In other news, Cramer was 1,000,000% wrong on his crazy targets for crude, natty and gold. I believe he said natty to $16, gold to $1,600 and oil to $160, or something stupid like that.
Does anyone care about that? I mean, how long until somehow holds his feet to the fire?
Here, on this stupid blog, you pie eaters jump all over me if I am off by 1 or 2 points. However, more often than not, I prove my detractors to be of the lowest quality, not worthy of dinner with proper silverware.
With my money, I am going insane. I want to punch a few holes in T. Boone Pickens’ car. But, I will go with the flow, like a summer breeze gusting down on a garbage dump or coal mine.
Top picks: SKF, Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]]
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That picture was appropriate, but why leave out Liberace?
http://learnsomethingnewtoday.us/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/liberace.jpg
Do you have any plans to buy more DIG?
The oil men are turning to wind energy and natty. Oil is truly gay…and dirty.
oil is most definitely gay. it was never worth 140/barrel, and i hope GS got gang-banged this quarter for their ostentatious displays this summer.
There is no such thing as 1,000,000%. You’re exaggerating 1000%.
More DIG in the high 60’s.
This is the gayest feeling ever.
Now I know how most of you dart throwers feel. So helpless.
This market is illogical. Oil is down and the refiners are down. What the copulation? So much for that trade.
Buy Vulcan Materials!….or I’ll pinch the nerve on your trapezius muscle, causing you to fall into a deep and unprofitable sleep.
Well if it makes you feel any better about your positioning, Jimmy siad the morning that commodities are going much lower. Gotta figure the bottom is hours away at most. Costanza yes indeedy
Leave It To Beaver update- Ward has a talk with the Beav and he takes the grease out of his hair. Eddie Haskell tells the Beav to start calling Shirley names to get even with Shirley for calling the Beav “sheepdog”.
Carry on with whatever.
I demand equal time for female gays (lesbians, I believe they’re called) for occasional oil homo-hammer photos.
I’m sure many CNBC lovers were thrown a curve ball this week, with dino shit declining, while at the same time, the markets tanking further. Many of you are asking … “this isn’t what they said would happen” … let me just paint a portrait for you fuckers. The economy is screwed, and cheaper commodity prices are further validation how bad things are going to become. The perception of declining demand will ultimately beat out hurricanes, the banana republic’s AKA OPEC , and inferior money managers.
The Fly will soon be able to relieve himself with a litany of sailor jargon, and Dennis Kneale will turn into a pumpkin on air.
Goldman reiterated its $149 price target for crude at least 3 times during August.
Conviction or desperate? You make the call.
Maybe oil is down because http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080904/usa_cftc_investigation.html
Manipulation of oil inventory levels. Tell me it isn’t so. Nobody could stoop as low as manipulating their inventory levels.
A few months back you were all complaining oil was too high after it crossed $100 and all you guys were shorting it. Now its too cheap at $106 and change. Make your minds up already 🙂 IMO a drop down to $99 or even $85 wouldn’t surprise me.
Goldman must have been long crude hoping to sell it into it’s self promotional rally.
WNR…so tempting.
IBC will explode in a geyser of Fly profanity soon.
I have had confidence that oil is going to $100 and probably less because it was a bubble going to $147. It recently made a dead cat bounce and then that freakin cane caused a detour, but it is back on track – strong down action. Once these commodities reverse direction – go short.
Hardest trade right now seems long Oil/ short Retail. This shit will reverse some day before the holidays set in.
Fly how up do date were those VSE short interest, also interested in PEIX because it’s very low risk.
Bill Gross pays tribute to Cramer? But this is the most interesting:
“If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.”
In other words, it’s almost like Bill Gross is arguing for socialism to avoid depression.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/Investment+Outlook+Bill+Gross+Sept+2008+Bull+Market.htm
Kass: I’m Sprouting Bull Horns
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
9/4/2008 11:59 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/newsanalysis/investing/10435762.html
This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Sept. 4 at 7:55 a.m. EDT.
“There are two types of minds — the mathematical and what might be called the intuitive. The former arrives at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid; the latter is endowed with greater flexibility and applies itself simultaneously to the dive.”
— Blaise Pascal
Bulls, bears, Republicans and Democrats, oh my!
My singular charge (by day!) is to deliver superior investment returns to my investors. To do so, I must remain sensitive to the message of the markets and to the changing list of numerous fundamental inputs, but these days it’s easier said than done in a market that seems to have no memory from day to day.
That said, I am beginning to see some light at the end of the market’s tunnel.
I have long said that relative to intermediate- and long-term interest rates, stocks are not expensive — nor have equities, in the main, ever been taken to speculative extremes, though the same can’t be said for residential real estate, commodities, derivatives or private equity deals. A host of other factors incorporated in a previous column earlier this year argue in favor of a better market — perhaps now more than ever, these “good omens” are seeing the light of day.
Several recent developments have conspired to elevate the chances of moving out of this summer’s trading range to the upside. Some of the more positive catalysts include:
* A sharp drop in the price of most commodities (especially of an energy kind) will serve as a tax cut to the consumer and even stem the tide of lower disposable incomes that has been so apparent over the last few years.
* The aforementioned reduction in cost pressures (if sustained) decreases the vulnerability of corporate profit margins. A compression in profitability had previously been the source of my concern over the last two years. Alleviating this concern is an important market tailwind.
* With raw costs dropping — Jim “El Capitan” Cramer gets this! — and wage inflation nonexistent, inflation has probably peaked in this economic cycle. Indeed, it may now have become the battle past.
* The insular, mainstream media may have underestimated Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her potential impact on the McCain ticket in the November election. She hit a home run last night in a remarkably wise, poised (even when the teleprompter broke!), scorching and sassy speech. A characteristically positive response was from Hal Stratton, a former Attorney General of New Mexico, who said, “That’s what we out West call openin’ a whole can of whupass on your opponents.” There were also the characteristically critical reactions from the New York Times and Washington Post.
* Regardless of the election’s outcome, given the gravitas of the economic downturn, both Presidential candidates will now likely reduce individual tax rates to the middle class and introduce an additional fiscal stimulus package.
* The housing markets, which are at the epicenter of our credit problems, show preliminary signs that the bottom in activity and price declines may be only six to nine months away, even though the magnitude of the recovery remains an ongoing issue. (This morning, Toll Brothers (TOL) reported only 195 home contract cancellations. That’s the lowest quarterly level in over two years.) The same may be true for the automobile industry.
* A continuing high (and increasing) level of investor pessimism is reflected in the multiyear lows in the net long positions of the hedge fund community.
Importantly, I have long written this summer that, given the complexity of today’s investment issues, I will let the market tell me its story, and Mr. Market is telling a clear disinflationary tale — Jim “El Capitan” Cramer gets this, too! — based on the classic relative strength and revival of early cycle sectors (homebuilding, finance and retailing).
This is what market bottoms look like.
So, I am now calling an audible on many of the investments that have occupied my short book, like the Retail HOLDRs (RTH) and a number of other consumer names. Moreover, the better acting early cycle sectors could be joined by the oversold materials and energy groups, which are now looking very much like the mid-July capitulation in the banks.
If this occurs, an upside breakout could happen sooner than later.
“The odds are six-to-five that the light in the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.”
— Paul Dickson
I am not ignoring the obvious headwinds, which include a pernicious credit cycle, a deeply indebted consumer, a hedge fund community in disarray, the world’s fractured financial institutions (and the attendant loss of credit availability) and a weakening corporate profits picture, but all of these issues are now well known and quite possibly have been discounted in the current price level and valuation of equities.
Nor am I willing to bet the ranch that lower commodity prices are creating something of a sea change in the form of improving corporate profits, that the relative strength in early cycle stocks will be sustained, that the oversold materials/energy stocks will rebound meaningfully nor that political change (or its investment ramifications) will have a salutary impact.
Though I am a Democrat and a short seller, as I have written repeatedly, there is no place for partisanship in the investment process. I have equal disdain for Polyannas and Cassandras, and I abhor inflexible investors who ignore the message of the market and remain too anchored in unbending dogma.
My investment conclusion?
The light at the end of the tunnel may not be an illusion, but the tunnel might be!
It’s time to get more bullish.
Fu*k socialism ! I am going to buy Bill’s Newport Beach mansion in foreclosure after PIMCO goes under due to his Gross mismanagement.
I was reading that the S&P s forward PE is 25. A 30% haircut would be well deserved.
Bill Gross is in need of a bailout.
Anyone ever see a commodity hit a new all time high and then fall 30% and then recover back to a new high???? It just doesn’t happen – when the peak is hit, it is always some time before a revisit to a new high. It would be freakin amazing if oil now hit $149 before the year is out.
SMN looks like a nice short in the making, too bad I can’t find shares 🙁
Cubs, go with the double long, UYM
someone just flushed the toilet
Wood, UYM chart looks too scary, lol. The 2 charts just don’t correlate right. SMN should be $70 right now.
Jim Rogers may have to sell his collection of fucktarded bowties to pay his Singaporean mortgage.
Broker, I know where Boone Chickens lives if you want his address 🙂
Uh, the fucking VIX should be at 83 by now, eh?
Chris Laudani
Catalyst Confused
9/4/2008 1:29 PM EDT
Doug, I understand your need to be flexible in this type of market, but what exactly is the catalyst that makes you more bullish on stocks? Are you forecasting a coming rise in S&P 500 earnings estimates or is it a short term trading call based on the decline in oil and commodities? Or is it a rally into the election? Or is it the economy can’t get any worse, so you gotta buy’em…Or, maybe, it’s a little bit of everything? Look, I understand oil prices and commodity prices have “crashed”, but aren’t most of these commodity prices really just back to April/May prices? (Why can’t some sheik come out and say they are cutting production? Won’t the hedge funds just take oil back to the highs once that happens?) (As an aside…didn’t the talking heads just spend a year trying to convince us that the rise in oil commodities and agricultural products came from frenzied demand from the BRICS and not from speculation? I seem to remember a boat load of guys coming on TV and telling us it was next to impossible to speculate in these markets. Now, we’ve got nothing but demand destruction all over the place.) Anyway, are you looking for a long, sustained rally based on increased earnings estimates or is it some sort of trading call? “We’re looking for an 8-10% rally in the S&P 500….back to the downtrend line around 1,350…looking for lower highs…yada, yada, yada”…. Or are you forecasting a rally into the election….Wow, “that chick from the $6 million dollar bait shack can really read off the teleprompter” rally…Maybe its one of those “Economy can’t get any worse, so its time to buy’em”…Once in a generation chance to get in while the gettin’ is good…”You don’t know how good you kids have it today. When I was your age, we had to make our own salt and pepper” type of rallies. Or is it some combination of all of the above? Why not take Rev’s approach – be cautious until it’s easier to make money? Why does the market have to go up? Can’t the market just grind away and do nothing for the next year or two? Won’t I be able to buy Citigroup at $19 next year? Or US Steel at $100? I could have bought Macy’s (M) at $25 four years ago. Hasn’t Microsoft been trapped at $25 for 5 years now? What’s the rush?
Position: none
Illogical. All of it.
Captain, it appears VMC bounced off it’s support line at $73.25, but sensors indicate it doesn’t have much “dilithium in the tank,” if you know what I mean.
Shall I hail Mr. Scott to to remedy the photon torpedoes?
Or the Glen Fiddich, for that matter?
___
Long SKF, eh Fly? Or will you miraculously have “reversed” this trade when you return?