And I am not talking about the garden variety type. How can so many people get the market wrong, so consistently?
Answer: You’re all idiots.
You people should be shining my shoes for what I bring to table. Lo and behold, the market is coming around to my way of thinking—oil up, banks down. Fucking shocker.
Hey, I got an idea. How about some of you charting analysts go chart the credit default swaps on Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] ? Tell me what they say and then give me your market diagnosis. While you’re at it, go check the cds’s for General Electric Company [[GE]] . I wonder how the market would do on a GE bankruptcy? Shall we try to find out?
Both Goldman and Morgan are in trouble here. I know the assholes from SEC are reinstating that ridiculous short sale restriction rule tomorrow; however, that will not solve the underlying problem, which is confidence. There isn’t any.
From what I understand, following the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] bankruptcy, auditors were shocked at what they saw on the Lehman books, with regards to transparency. Actually, there wasn’t any. CDO’s were marked far too high and their commercial backed paper was priced for dot com boom times. Can you say “jail”?
So, where should a lowly investor, such as yourself, put his money now?
For starters, get long some commodity stocks, as the Federal Reserve and Treasury actively deplete and loot the country for all of its IOU’s. There is a long term price to pay for all of this spending and it doesn’t equate to a stronger dollar or fun and gleeful times.
With my money, I am shorting more GS. It’s going to book value ($99). And, I am buying more [[DIG]] and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] . Just in case you were wondering, I am holding my WNR for higher prices (I had to say that).
Oh, I almost forgot: Bill Miller from Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] still sucks.
UPDATE: I changed my mind. I am selling all of my DIG and IEO, but leaving FCX. I will now lever myself for a downside move, without hedges.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
If GE starts getting near bankruptcy it will be interesting to watch the CNBC talking heads try to spin to save their jobs.
With a GE bankruptcy, CNBC would get booted off the air. Now that’s something to root for.
Better yet MSNBC would be kaput.
no DGP or GLD?
Fly, what does the time machine tell you about if the regional banks get a short term spike when the SEC includes them (and probably all stocks) in tighter shorting rules.
I am shocked by the WFC’s etc of the world holding up so strong the last 2 months and especially this week.
I hate the regionals, especially PACW.
DGP rocking today…just wish I bought more the other day. Still plenty of time in my opinion.
Fly great call, I bulked up on SRS myself. One question I had for you is AXA, are you still in the shorting mood for it?
Fly, what about WB reshort here?….
Fly…check out the silver and gold price. Time to buy HL and rock that short position.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Soleil+Securities+Upgrades+Western+Refining+(WNR)+to+Buy/3996321.html
Treasury is selling t-bills to re-liquify the FED’s balance sheet. With the money printing presses running wild, gold makes sense. Russia closing its market indefinately means alot of Russian are panicked worse than we are. Rich Russians will be moving to gold as a safe haven.
Never owned gold beofre, but I bought GLD today.
The Fly is God!
Viva Señor Tropicanico !
j Says:
no DGP or GLD?
i’m the aussie “j”. That wasn’t my comment. What should happen now, Fly.
Good call on the commodities by the way.
Thrice rejected on shorting more LM this morning.
Getting a Load of GE
Doug Kass
9/17/08 10:39 AM EDT
I am buying General Electric (GE) in size now.
Position: Long GE
I made the same moves, so you have to shine my shoes too. Loving this cracking here.
Plus I did buy gold……..I will own the world.
Fly,
Why isnt LM tanking with the others? Just trying to understand what the “stupid people” are seeing in it right now to get my psychology on the market correct. Its holding up pretty well relatively speaking and ran up better than others yesterday (up 8%)
K-asshat trying to get rid of the last of his clients’ money now?
__
Kass is the first ever perma bear fund with a perma bull perspective.
I just bought stock.
You just saw me buy stock.
No big deal.
If I can do it, The Fly can do it.
Crude is going to $80, fat ass.
GE will NEVER go bankrupt. Shit, throw in MS, LEH, C, Auto’s, Airlines, CNBC among government bailout companies. Oh, lets not forget casinos too.
Top Pick: Sell FXP/ CAL
Juice,
Where did you get that Kass info? On the street.com, he is not available, and some other guy is blogging for him
sorry aussie, didn’t mean to confuse
Fly, A question about SRS… I’ve got good LT profits in DXD, QID, and some SDS. I’ve also got a bit of SRS bot at a higher price. Would it be worthwhile to rollout of either of the three and get some more SRS, or just sit tight as is?
clear breakdown here. I am selling my oil at a loss, in order to take hedges off.
I am loading up on SRS now.
Probably a good idea to leave some hedges on going into opex….people will be flattening out their bank and energy shorts, out of necessity.
None of you fuckers believed my FXP call.
Now witness the greatness of Plutonium Petey.
Nah.
I will leave WNR. I am fairly confident that I am right and all of you are wrong.
Off to eat a sandwich.
Repeat- If we crash ( and I mean crash, not some crappy 500 point drop) gold will drop at least $50-100 as EVERYTHING will be liquidated.
Big Mike, You’re probably right, Congress tried to save casinos, by making it much more difficult to play online poker and in online casinos.
Unfortunately, for whatever companies they represent/get campaign money from, that just killed the growth into the poker industry and was not the right move long term.
But the government is going to lose the ability to bail all those companies out eventually. There’s just too much money that needs to go around, too much debt and troubles.
Fly, Thanks.
Fly what do you think about refineries>
I like WNR. That’s it.
Okay, now I am really off to eat a sandwich.
$99 book value is rear view mirror. What happens to GS and MS book value when $600 billion LEH assets are sold into severely distressed markets? Love the GS and MS shorts.
MS has ms, all spastic and shit.
Okay, now I am leaving, this time for real.
S&P just upgraded AAPL to hold from sell for what it’s worth:
Recommendation: We are taking a more bullish stance on AAPL based on valuation and the chance we see for an update of
its PC product line before the holiday selling season, following the updating of the iPod line September 9.
Also, we believe the company’s lack of debt is a positive factor in a volatile stock market. We still see risks
from possible moderation of consumer spending and from a trend toward narrower gross margins.
Applying a slightly higher target P/E of 27X to our 12-month forward EPS estimate of $5.60, we are raising
our 12-month target price to $151 from $140.
Enough With the Short-Sellers!
Rev Shark
9/17/08 10:50 AM EDT
I’m so tired of the blame that short-sellers are taking for this market weakness, as if the huge debt and economic issues we are grappling with have nothing to do with why things are acting so poorly. It just strikes me as a very poor excuse made by people who are on the wrong side of this market. If I were 90% long, I’d be complaining about something, too.
Yes, short-sellers will go after vulnerable stocks, but these guys have a minuscule amount of funds compared to the long-side money. Are all the long-side buyers suddenly struck dumb and impotent by this action? Why aren’t they doing battle with these shorts if they believe it’s just manipulation? Shouldn’t this be the buy of a lifetime if you really think it’s just shorts playing games? Apparently, the big funds aren’t so sure, or they would be providing support.
The market works fine. The problem is that some people have unrealistic expectations about how it should be acting.
Gold’s Moonshot
Howard Simons
9/17/08 11:05 AM EDT
This is the first time gold has acted as a crisis hedge during the crisis. It seems to have taken off when the Treasury announced it was auctioning bills so the Federal Reserve could restore its balance sheet.
If bill rates are near-zero,and asset returns are collapsing and the Federal Reserve is in the money-creation business, gold should rise.
Position: none
In Total Agreement With Rev
Doug Kass
9/17/08 11:07 AM EDT
I agree wholeheartedly with Rev on short sellers.
As we are learning today, making hard to borrow a fraudulent act has nothing to do with the financial system.
For now, the newest SEC guidelines on short selling are no match against a credit market that has, once again, seized up.
Position: None
I’m starting an FXP short here @ 136… watch it rise to 200 on a China crash !
JNPR rolling over
I was going to do that yesterday morning Juice, but I was too slow.
Did any of you take my Jake-vise and pick up some GG at $29.15 as recc’d?
___
oil at highs might lift the market, with a large componet of sp500 energy.
right?