Developing…
UPDATE: Howard says “Stop Being Bearish“—great read.
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Fly get to bed. Everything is fine in asia.
Look I’ll wake you up if something happens, ok.
By the way have you seen the Dog? Where the fuck is the dog?
thx biiiitch
Sleeping for for pussies J.
lol…grammar/spelling “is is” the rested ones.
I’ll post this again with the current action in the Yen:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm
Dow futes up 335 now … S&P up 33 to 961 a resistance point …. breaking 990 establishes a new uptrend with 1179 as major resistance…
Cautiously optimistic and adding to natural resource stocks (MOS, NOV, FCX, CLF) and may add PBR or COP ….
If we gap up that high Woody’s SMN play may turn out to be a nice hedge ….
Hanna from Quantifiable Edges latest blog post:
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Overly Strong Reactions Are Often Overreactions
If you left 10 minutes early on Wednesday you missed a lot. The S&P lost over 3% from 3:50 to 4pm and was down over 4% before bouncing in the last minute. I looked back over the last 25 years to find other times the market dropped 3% or more in the last 10 minutes of the day. This was the 1st. Lowering the requirement to 2% unveiled 3 instances. They are listed below along with the next day’s performance:
10/19/87 – S&P rose 5.23% the next day.
9/29/08 – S&P rose 5.27% the next day.
10/27/08 – S&P rose 10.79% the next day.
This is too small a sample size to use for analysis, but a nice illustration of a simple adage. An overly strong reaction is often an overreaction.
________
Anyway, the last 10 minute action still has me 50% long (did not get stopped out), and focused on adding. Booking 10% realized profits from the 13% paper profit from positions bought Friday/Monday allows me to have looser stops. It’s a tough game (when is it not?). We need to focus on learning from it and improve our trading.
Get ready for a + 5-10% day.
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/10/overly-strong-reactions-are-often.html
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Overly Strong Reactions Are Often Overreactions
If you left 10 minutes early on Wednesday you missed a lot. The S&P lost over 3% from 3:50 to 4pm and was down over 4% before bouncing in the last minute. I looked back over the last 25 years to find other times the market dropped 3% or more in the last 10 minutes of the day. This was the 1st. Lowering the requirement to 2% unveiled 3 instances. They are listed below along with the next day’s performance:
10/19/87 – S&P rose 5.23% the next day.
9/29/08 – S&P rose 5.27% the next day.
10/27/08 – S&P rose 10.79% the next day.
This is too small a sample size to use for analysis, but a nice illustration of a simple adage. An overly strong reaction is often an overreaction.
Since I don’t read others comments :(, I thought I’d just post the same thing as Michelle B., who beat me to it.
Fuck you Michelle 😉
Good morning all. I had fun yesterday, made bank, and stopped out of PCX, HK, TLM, AUY (all my sizable longs except UYG) by 3:30 pm. I was woried at the time I was gonna miss a big up finish, but had other things I needed to do. I see that didn’t happen, I am happy, oh boy, early trading today is gonna rock!!! I loved the fade at the end, it gives an opportunity to buy back in on the cheap. Foreign markets up, today is gonna be good, I can feel it. I wish the market would do that every day.
Fucksleepingat325aminCalifornia
You got it norcal. Time for coffee and ready to get to work.
Thinking about adding a little bit of NOV today.
Yawn!
Up at 4:20 ha! and ready to eat some cow (hopefully not crow)with the devil dog. Hey dog, where the fuck are you anyway? Don’t tell me you pussed out. Look, futures don’t mean shit. Don’t let the fly and his homo followers scare you away
Pretty sure the biggest remaining issue in the markets is “head-exploding risk” as investors try and figure out which 70%-off deals they want to throw money at first…
GM/GMAC debt? pick-your-index? china real estate? corn? this or that stock? energy? short treasurys?
EXXON Blows out numbers
I am going long oils. The only long positions that I will hold.
40% cash
50% shorts
10% long oils
Commodity plays are going up. The govt has put an insane amount of cash in the system and inflation will show its ugly head very soon. The dollar will weaken, commodities will rise.
MOE Moron,
devildog run out of paper money to short in higher prices.
No paper money here. Putting my money and my balls on the line.
Futures are not looking good for my side, but they have lost their credibility in my eyes, especially after last week’s bullshit lock limit down.
Where is money for consumers going to come from.
Anyone know when in Nov. the October claims come out?
Devildog’s absence makes me wonder if he was trading actual dollars….poor mutt….
boca-I have not slept in 24 hours and I have ZERO caffeine or uppers in my blood…only Xanax to keep me calm. Hahaha
MOE,
I believe you and respect your point of view. I do not disagree long term with you (disagree with shorting right here right now), just remember you could be right about the direction and still be wiped out.
TMOE,
This melt up will be just as strong as the preceding cascading drop…don’t be stubborn like DevilDog and put your stops in eh?
Up we go.
Should be huge up day on GDP report alone not to mention everything else
I wondering the same thing about the Dog. He says he went from 100% short to 285% in one day?
Something does not add up
I did add about 10% to my short positions yesterday.
I been getting beat up on my AAPL shorts and my SPY shorts.
I have been short GS, AXP, COF also
I always put stops on. I maybe crazy but not dumb
Anonymos was actually T MOe
It was a feeding frenzy in commod plays in oz today. I think that people made a mistake though as they also bought small cap shit that have no hope of getting finance.
The word on the street here is that Chinese “companies” (government) are extra busy trying to find commod plays at cheap prices in he small caps.
What do they say about the market staying irrational longer than one can remain solvent?
Here is a small cap play for you J
In the oil space they build platforms and have no debt, none at all
GIFI
Exxon says that CAPEX is still on for next year. CVX spending money like crazy. RIG building new rigs although GIFI does not build the Floating rigs like Transocean uses.
But that they have no debt impressed me.
They have been getting beat up lately along with the rest of the oil service co’s
May not work in the short term but it crossed my screen for a longer term buy
Hi Scully
What do we do on MS this morn,
Thanks Moe
Will take a look.
T MOE:
GIFI was a Cramer pick earlier this year when natty was going to 16 along with 1,600 gold. Good enough for me (NOT!)
The reason I know GIFI
I know the CEO,
Family friend, smart man as shown with his refusal to take on debt. I did not know that it was a Cramer pick. Unlike most traders I don’t watch that stupid fucker. Better ways to spend my time
Breaking News: Rev Shark, shocking the world, says: “Stay disciplined and wait for better setups”
Only 1200 Dow points left on the table. Let’s wait for another couple of thousand until we know it’s safe to go back in.
Easiest thing in the world is to appear smart by advising people to do shit because you’re “cautious” and “rigorous”. This guy drives me nuts…
Look at FTK go. I bought some at $3 2 days back.
Watching DEVILDOG get repeatedly clown raped…it’s like a train wreck…you want to turn away from the gore…but you are drawn to it instead. So sad…
SLW, SIL, shit, anything that can kill werewolves, is “BTFO.”
Historical opportunities here, fuckers.
_________
Steve —
Don’t forget — Rev. Shark is “up 82%” since 2002, or some shit.
That’s like t-bills, compounded.
________
Goldman weak early again