You are!
Nah, just kidding.
No, but seriously, you’re fucked.
I bet you thought there was no ramifications to falling oil prices.
HARTFORD, Conn. – A steep drop in gas prices has created an estimated $100 million revenue shortfall in Connecticut’s state budget for this fiscal year, which already has a projected deficit.
State officials thought the state’s petroleum wholesale tax was going to raise more this year than the $340.7 million it brought in the year before. But at least a third of the expected revenue is gone because of the falling gas prices.
The average price of a gallon of regular gas in Connecticut has dropped from an all-time high of $4.39 on July 7 to $1.98 on Monday, according to the automobile club AAA.
State lawmakers met last week and reduced the deficit for this fiscal year, which ends next June 30, by $300 million. But officials say the current $18 billion budget still has a deficit of at least $250 million, and the revenue shortfall for the next two years is estimated at $6 billion.
Connecticut is just the tip of the iceberg, with regards to state budget shortfalls. All states baked in much higher oil prices, when doling out money. Sure, our local politicians say they want lower oil prices; but it’s just another form of taxation. The cool part is, unlike the tobacco bond fiasco, they get to blame high oil on terrorists and men with sheets on their heads.
The stark reality: our country is mismanaged from the top down. Shockingly enough, America has the world’s largest economy, yet the most inept stewards watching over the Treasury.
Speaking of which, the “TARP funds” have been stolen and Congress has no idea where the 100’s of billions went.
Sweet.
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first for the first time
California is f-u-c-k-e-d
My town is fucked, we were built on oil.
Fly,what stocks are you holding now?Whats your largest holding?Thanks
So is my family, they all work for big oil companies.
So what’s the trade?
Top holding was GE.
Here are my top 5:
KBR
FXP
GME
M
FAZ
Basically, cash is more than 20% right now. I own about 50 stocks, none more than 10% of assets.
Trade:
Long term:
We die.
Oil to $10
We die again.
DUG moonshots.
What comes of Jim Rogers?
F@ck Connecticut (home of Dodd and Lieberf@ck)
F@ck California
F@ck New York
F@ck Florida
F@ck…
You get the picture, I, on the other hand, am immune. Let them all go straight to hell.
Let me get this right: oil falls from 140 bucks to below 50 saving users real brass (maybe up to $500 billion if we include all energy prices falls) but CT has a problem because the state is going to lose $250 mill in an 18 billion budget.
This is money they were gambling on, using it to anchor ongoing spending. In other words they’re all matching recurring spending with (possibly non-recurring income). Fuck them. 250 mill/18 bill = 1.3% of budget. Let them cut government salaries.
Somehow I don’t see that as a problem as the benefits of lower energy prices far outweighs these issues.
What do you mean the TARP funds have been stolen or unaccounted for? They’re sitting as preferred in bank balance sheets, aren’t they?
Fly,
You keep buying the same shit. I liked it better when you were trading ready to implode bubble stocks like NTRI, BWLD, and those Chinese shit bags like ADY
you should be buying fucking AIRLINES! and W.R. Grace
How do i register for this shit hole of a site you got?
j has a really good point!
So the states don’t bring in as much in gas taxes, all that money is building up and burning holes in our pockets, so we spend it, then the states collect taxes on that.
Tim:
You don’t. You only get banned, never to be seen of or heard from again.
The “Messiah” Rally continues tomorrow.
FXP to 30
Jimmy Hoffa is holding the Tarp funds for safe keeping over in Jersey.No problem.
sorry for long post. got this from the comments section on xtrends, definitely worth the read:
indusequities
2 hours ago
Have time to read? Read it ..worth it
Paul Joseph Watson
The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions – all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on
the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
Gerald Celente (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Celente), the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining
food, not gifts.
“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.
“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is
in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.
Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would
eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent.
The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.
The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, “The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”
In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.
“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D.
C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”
“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start
to develop.”
“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”
“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and
with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”
The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente’s accuracy as a trend forecaster.
“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”
– CNN Headline News
“A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”
– The Economist
“Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”
– USA Today
“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”
– CNBC
“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”
– The Wall Street Journal
“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”
– The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”
– The New York Times
“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”
– 48 Hours, CBS News
“Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing.”
– The Detroit News
“Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees.”
– Chicago Tribune
“The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular
Culture.”
– The Los Angeles Times
“If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente.”
– New York Post
This Great Depression II talk is total and complete BULLSHIT.
Americans are spoiled to the point that any slow down, mild or not, is met with end of times calls.
Pussy’s…
Long QLD DIG my hedge is my spine.
The infamous Tim Sykes..penny stock shyster?
It seems to me the “TARP money is stolen” shtick is is a tax eater turf war going on.
Treasury is currently setting up oversight by hiring a coupla 100 or more taxeaters while the other tax eaters- the GAO wants a piece of the action.
That’s what it is, if this is what you’re referring to:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122824907384873263.html
If the hammerhead writing the piece at the WSJ used a couple of neurons more he could have figured this out.
breaking news from the the “Chosen One”
Obama shelves oil company tax after price fall: aide
CHICAGO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President-elect Barack Obama is not planning to implement a windfall profit tax on oil companies because prices have dropped below $80 a barrel, an aide said on Tuesday.
“President-elect Obama announced the policy during the campaign because oil prices were above $80 per barrel,” an aide on Obama’s transition team said. “They are currently below that now and expected to stay below that.”
Oil prices have fallen from a record $147 a barrel in July to under $50 this week.
Obama, who signaled early in his campaign for the White House that he would take an active approach to oil markets as president, had planned to use the revenue from a windfall profits tax to fund a tax rebate for low- and middle-income families struggling with high energy prices.
But the aide said Obama’s presidential campaign had already taken the price drop into account six weeks ago. When Obama laid out his economic plan for the middle class in mid-October, revenue from a windfall profit tax was not included because of the price change, he said.
Oil companies steadfastly opposed a tax, saying it would stifle exploration and innovation.
The switch drew applause from industry.
CONCESSIONS ON CAPITAL GAINS TAXES ARE NEXT SHORTSELLERS!!
Celente is an idiot and just a snake oiler. I agree with fries.
The US is an immensely rich and under developed nation with huge upside potential. the people are just going through one of the very frequent trips into self-assessment and self criticisms. The last one they went through was in the early 90’s when everyone thought the sky was falling in. It wasn’t as bad then but bad news these days travels on the web at the speed of light and people get off on that shit.
There are literally trillions of dollars locked up in infrastructure in the US, where unlike some countries the ownership of things like ports, toll roads etc. in the US is in the hands of grubby taxeating officials that use the proceeds as their own private domain and the assets treated as captured capital of vested interests. Example: the NY port authority owning even land such as the WTC., the airports, tollways etc. Most of that stuff in places like Australia is privately owned.
I find it amusing just how negative some Americans are about the place.
Even the projected deficit is carefully crafted won’t be a huge burden if the economy is allowed to recover without undue taxes and other crap.
The worst possible problem is the uncertainty coming from the Obama camp as to what he’s going to do. No one knows yet other than little snippets here and there. He’d better start getting off his arse and start explaining his plans.
It’s a little bigger than that.
Think about how many countries (even those not in the Middle East) that pre-calculated higher revenues based on the price of black gold.
Someone forgot to tell them to hedge…
How did my stop loss order trigger for FXP at 49.90? Can people just see my order and decide to buy my shit at basement levels for the day? Or, do I just suck by putting my stop to tight? I didn’t want to sell it, but didn’t want to incur a huge loss incase there was a gay rally.
“Basically, cash is more than 20% right now. I own about 50 stocks, none more than 10% of assets.” – Fly
50 stocks? Thought you were observing the same “convoy” trading we’re all experiencing. Are you starting to seem trading on fundamentals? Or does by owning them somehow change the way you track and potentially pounce on a stock?
Yep El, now those fuckers are fucked.
the lunatic Chavez has had over 50% of his budget ripped from under his feet. there are 1 in 4 people in Ven. working at government tax eating jobs.
He has just instituted a 6 hour working day.
the fucker was buying military equipment from Russia.
He’ll be lucky to remain in office when economic laws get through with him.
When I went bullish last week, I fanned out and bought baskets in diff sectors.
Instead of confusing the simple country reader, I dumb down my picks.
Hey Mr. Fly,
Is that why Dow futures are up 300 points tonight?
This sucks! I got short late today!
Does your time machine say that they will run this thing up to 9000 before it tanks again?
Ack ack ack…..
Pass the grey poupon?
FED unloading Treasuries at ungodly prices.
Damon, what futures are u looking at? Dow down 50
The US is generally fucked because it’s run by lawmakers (all former lawyers) who have failed to realize that after almost 300 years we have plenty of goddamn laws. The kind of people we need in control are people with an actual understanding of how the economy and markets work (but not economists), because money rules the world, not laws.
California is extra screwed because it’s run and inhabited by complete fucktards who want everything but refuse to pay for anything.
Market’s in a sawtooth pattern down until it bounces off the bloated corpse of Jim FUBAR Cramer.
Off to beg the wife to ease the tension.
Timber…
12:05AM Research In Motion lowers Q309 revenue and EPS guidance (RIMM) 37.32 : Co issues downside guidance for Q3 (Nov), sees EPS of $0.81-0.83, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.91 First Call consensus; sees Q3 (Nov) revs of $2.75-2.78 bln vs. $2.96 bln consensus. Preliminary revenue is lower than the previously forecasted revenue range of $2.95-$3.10 bln. Co notes approx one third of the difference between forecasted and preliminary revenue is expected to be a result of the depreciation of certain foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar in the quarter. The remaining difference is primarily due to lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products, which RIMM believes is a reflection of general economic weakness in the U.S. and shifts in product launch dates within the quarter. Subject to final review, gross margin in the quarter is expected to be between 45-46%. The lower than expected gross margin is due primarily to product revenue mix and foreign exchange impacts within the quarter. EPS is anticipated lower due to lower-than-estimated revenue and the unfavorable impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar. Co expects the number of net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts added in the quarter to be approx 2.6 mln, which is lower than the 2.9 mln previously forecasted and reflects a 57% increase over the same quarter of last year.
they have a several billion dollar budget shortfall this year in washington (the state).
it’s pretty great. around seattle you can see they’ve stepped up traffic stops noticeably. a ticket for no seat belt is over $100. lol @ desperation.
haha RIMM. i only hate POT more.
FXP is dropping fast; China has reached short term bottom.
Damon should be shot for giving me a heart attack. “Dow Fut. up 300” STFU
The FXP is behaving oddly. It’s at an all time low, but the Hang Seng is now about 50% lower than it was a year ago, and all of FXP’s underlying stocks are way down from their highs… which confuses me how an ultrashort ETF can be at an all time low.
Quiet Storm:
On CNBC earlier tonight they showed Dow Futures up like 280, honest to god!
I think it is all part of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) network.
The futures are wrong all the time on the CNBC website, too.
See the glory of The Royal Scam, my friends.
There’s a cop every other quarter mile of Highway 17 in Myrtle Beach.
Bastards.
South Carolina is the fucking dark ages.
I never appreciated just how bad it is until I drove through 48 states without incident- except being pulled as I left South Carolina AND when I returned.
There’s nothing to compare with how bad it is in South Carolina- and that’s in the best of times. ASSES.
Judge on the phone: “Come to court and get 4 points or send us the check and you only get 2 points against your license.” Due process means bend over and take it.
Gee thanks for that. How fair of you. ASS.
This infraction was a speeding ticket. Problem was I was parked in a parking lot for 10 minutes when the cop walked up and knocked on my window. ASS.
Never have figured out how you can get a speeding ticket for being parked in a parking lot.
Not that it matters, but I would have thought you needed to be in motion, at the very least. Silly me.
Turns out they need money. So it’s ok to rob you.
It’s robbery, pure and simple. Don’t you just love paying the salaries of the robbers, so they can rob you? Corrupt evil ASSHOLES- the cops, the judges, the whole fuck you ATM machine. It’s shameless. There’s no pretense of constitutionality. Or even humaness. We are empowered to rob you on the side of the road, just because you’re there and we can-with impunity.
Check out speedtrap.org for more on this mob racket.
“In total, we’re talking about 7.5 to 15 billion dollars annually from tickets for government agencies and insurance companies. That’s more money than several states take in from all taxes!
Traffic tickets are a multi-billion industry. They have virtually nothing to do with highway safety, but they have everything to do with money.
When you begin to grasp the full magnitude of the public and private interests that depend on ripping off motorists through traffic tickets, you begin to understand why this unethical system continues to expand every year.”
It’s all about the money. Guess who’s fucked?
When you get a ticket, it’s not worth going to court most of the time. For example, I recently received a $55 ticket from a bullshit red light camera. The judge usually cuts it in half ($27.50), but adds on the fucking court costs ($25) = $52.50 (vs. the original $55). Doesn’t include gas and time spent. Just mail in a check.
They don’t even want you coming to court. It’s rigged so they make you mail the check in. Good business model, fuckers.
My wife got a triple citation from the Oregon State Police on the local Interstate:
1) Speeding (70 in a 45)
2) Unsafe Lane Change (without signaling)
3) Following Too Closely
Fines were set to be about $780.00 and loss of license (3 moving violations-she had one prior) Not to mention the increase in insurance premiums.
I wrote a letter to the judge (on her behalf), and we showed up in court dressed very respectfully.
Outcome:
Fine waived.
No violations to be placed on her driving record.
Complete traffic school (Online)
Total Cost: $45.00
I guess sometimes, it pays to go to court!
$780 for one pullover. That’s absurd. Some people don’t even make $780 in a week lol
C.A.
Oregon doesn’t have a sales tax, so they have to make it up somehow!
The law is an ass.
Charles Dickens
FCX suspends dividends.
Commodity stocks in for an assfucking tomorrow?
one change needed
“And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge RULING class of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”
On the futures issue:
I have noticed that when CNBC, Bloomberg, CME Globex, CNN Money etc are having errors or discrepancies with futures, the following day is filled with major fuckery.
No kidding like clockwork.
do yoursefl a fuckin favor, buy some gold, you’ll need it with the idiots in washington
Fuck, I covered my RIMM shorts yesterday. Still holding AAPL shorts so I hope that the bad news from RIMM carries over to AAPL. Fuck that skinny, sickly, looking fucker Steve “gives blow” Jobs.
Top positions
Short SPY, GS, AAPL, COF, MCO, XOM
60% cash
Moe
Leave the guy alone. He’s pancreatic cancer survivor. You ought to be happy for him , not whine he’s holding your stock up.
I say all of this while I am typing on a MAC. Ha!
I am kicking myself for bailing on my RIMM shorts. It is kicking kicked in the teeth in early trading.
What the fuck is up with CNBC’s quote on SPY
I am switching to Bloomberg right now. I hate steve liseman Although I think Rick Santelli is the only one on CNBC that knows what the fuck he is talking about.
Fly – Good post.
Nice job FCX. way to let the shareholders down gently.
bought some SMN premarket…should outperform the double inverses today.
and these start trading today…
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081203/20081203005253.html?.v=1
This is the second day in a row the SPY quote on CNBC is messed up.
Kudos — on today’s post.
Opening lines are gems. Give yourself a pat on the back.
FXP to explode today… now that everyone’s good and frustrated with this bullshit ETF and willing to sell cheap.
Ron Paul 2012.
But seriously, won’t lower gas prices help Santa?
-DT
Somali Pirates to acquire Citigroup
December 2, 2008 – 5:57 pm
(hat tip Walnuts)
November, 2008 (Bloomberg) — The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $100 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. ”You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to offer the shareholders anything,” said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS’s are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody’s and S&P have already issued a AAA investment grade rating for the PRBS’s.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said “We need a bank so that we have a place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in the capital markets have allowed us to purchase Citigroup at an attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the business even faster.”
Shandu added, “We don’t call ourselves pirates. We are coast guards and this will just allow us to guard our coasts better.”
😛
Lower gas prices help only those who have jobs.
Ron Paul? DT giving up on Obama already? He hasn’t even been sworn in. I see pigs flying.
The Nation is run by “Gangstaaaaaaaaah’s” while the sheep continue to be fleeced. Unfortunate; Disgraceful and Sickening.
DT- nothing good comes from low Oil. If nothing else, its a sign of weakening global commerce and production. Without inflation, the US debtors will never dig themselves out of the hole they dug. PUN intended
Here in my little corner of Florida they have been running speed traps 24/7 for the last 6 weeks. Ive been here 7 years and have never seen a trap along my commute, now there one EVERY SINGLE DAY. Cops on motorcycles with radar guns, pulling people over 4-5 at a time. They finally got me on my way home from work a month ago, 55 in a 45. Here’s the best part, 10 over is $185 ticket, 2-9 over is $95. Funny how they found that extra 1 mph.
slb just warned. watch oih
Like CA mentioned earlier..the court fees in New Jersey are $250!
SMH is a good long scalp.
… and so is KRE.
Wow FCX is expensive. I mean its barely down on the year.
… and so are Homebuilder etfs, ITB,XHB.
XOM is a pig and refuses to go down big (yet) with the (crude oil) ship.
I can tell it’s going to be another one of those days.
Fly, we need a new post.
XOM is the Devil!
Again like the past few sessions oils will lead the market in either direction
I agree, lower oil is not good. I was kinda kidding about the whole Santa thing… everyone knows his sleigh is magic, and that reindeer carry it through the sky.
-DT
Second best day of the year for me so far.
Also, I bought 1k ETFC as a lotto ticket that they are acquired. Why not?
what are the letters for the vix
what are the letters to bring up the vix chart ??
If we pivot above SP 850, look out shorts.
this edit shit has got to go
XOM just gave execs a 10% raise. When she blows it is going to be spectacular.
FXP…new 52 week low
Boomer- I read somewhere this AM that GS may get into banking via an online bank like ETFC. Can’t remember where I read it otherwise I would link it for you.
Streaming Vix chart…this works for me $vix.x
thanks pierpont
Confirmed sighting of the fat bearded one?
Chart Addict (who is 175% short, the last 75% being 300 Dow points below where it is now)
is not commenting much. Maybe HURTING too much.
Erx is moving again. Hop on board.
The Game Is Rigged- If you are talking Florida speed traps you must be talking about Waldo (near Gainesville) or Winter Park (near Orlando).
I just sold everything (SSO, BGU, QLD)
Booked 8k today.
Boomer: Are you the next Tabbed Blogger?
I dont think so. I suck at trading. But at least I dont quit!
new post up
Contrary– give the kid and his system a break.
This fucking market is a learning experience. I wish I got it at 24.
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