The euro will continue to collapse, calling into question its viability.
The dollar will remain a safe harbor, crushing many dollar bears along the way.
Oil prices will decrease in volatility, settling in around $30 per barrel.
Gold will collapse in the second half of 2009, under $500 per ounce.
Natural gas prices will trade in a range of $3.50-$6 for the entire year.
The price of corn, wheat and other agricultural products will collapse, making life very difficult for farmers.
Residential home prices will fall by another 15%.
Commercial real estate will feel the full brunt of the credit crisis, with vacancies sky rocketing to record levels.
AAPL will trade down to $50, before recovering.
GOOG will trade down to $250.
Rumors of a CHK bankruptcy will run rampant.
Most oil/gas stocks will fall by as much as 50%.
Hynix Semiconductor will file for bankruptcy protection.
AMD will file for bankruptcy protection.
MU will file for bankruptcy protection.
GE will fall into the single digits.
Several high profile homebuilders will fold.
The bubble in t-bills will continue until late 2009, sending yields to ridiculously low levels.
Obama’s stimulus program will disappoint.
50% of solar stocks will go away or melt into oblivion.
Taxes will rise, drastically.
Numerous states will request emergency funding from the Federal Government.
The unemployment rate will climb to 12%.
Bank stocks will fall by another 50% before recovering.
Water Utilities will outperform in 2009.
Russia will continue to devalue its currency.
Emerging markets will outperform Western stock markets.
The Dow will fall by 15%.
The Nasdaq will fall by 25%.
The S&P 500 will fall by 10%.
However, mid year, all indexes will drop by half, setting up a 2nd half rally.
Cash rich Japanese stocks will outperform.
China’s economy will continue to weaken, hurt by the U.S. consumer.
3 big name retailers will file for bankruptcy protection.
Chrysler will be liquidated.
F and GM will merge.
iBankCoin’s popularity will grow much faster than anyone could have predicted.
iBankCoin will makes its first acquisition in 2009.
Finally, The PPT will be a huge success, much to the chagrin of all “The Fly’s” enemies.
NOTE: Here were my ’08 predictions.
NOTE II: Here are Danny’s predictions.
NOTE III: Here are Alpha’s predictions.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FLY RULES!
you saved me much time. Mine are the EXACT opposite. see you in 2010 🙂
Here’s another prediction:
Howard’s alliance with Tim Sykes will backfire on him, in a very egregious way.
Steve Jobs announces he is too sick to effectively continue as Apples CEO, AAPL falls to $7 and never recovers.
FLY, do u like the QID ?
No etf’s for me, in ’09.
I like short KIM.
One other thing:
’09 will be the year of “The Fly’s” Revenge, even though there was no harm afflicted on me in 08.
Many of you substandard bloggers will suffer from The Black Lung, as I throw large pieces of coal in your general direction.
FLY, do you think our economy will improve by the end of the 09?
personal amendment: google will trade down to a one handle.
Never mind.I’m suffering from double vision.lol
Hey Fly any perspective on the hotel sector? Can’t see them doing too well next year. Any especially weak names?
Cool list. mine coming up tomorrow night.
-gio-
The Dow will fall by 15%.
The Nasdaq will fall by 25%.
The S&P 500 will fall by 10%.
However, mid year, all indexes will drop by half, setting up a 2nd half rally.
That’s one hell of a year. fly.
According to Mish, the actual main st. unemployment rate is already closer to %12.5, heading to over 20%, to rival that of the 1930’s Great Depression.
Thx for sharing. Really detailed and lengthy list compared to others I’ve seen, though I appreciate The Fly in many ways is incomparable 🙂
I strongly disagree with your –
“However, mid year, all indexes will drop by half, setting up a 2nd half rally.”
I think a rally will be seen in the first quarter. That will be the last chance to get out, before a relentless slide into 2010 cuts the major indices, at the very least, by 50%.
Other than that, I think the bubble in bonds will face profit taking early in the New Year.
And if Gold trades under $500, it will be for a nano-second creating the trade of the next several years. I’d load up in the 600’s.
The Pound will collapse
Oil to $77.50
S&P = “4” handle, no-one cares
You forgot this one…
DT will win again.
-DT
Fly, Very interesting predictions. Thanks.
LOL, why are you such a douche, u win my asshat of the year award for 2008 and 2009 for failing to monetize your traffic, only Digg is worse…but you’re still both pathetic
3 big name retailers will file for bankruptcy protection
M, DDS, SHLD?
In other words, you predict a continuation of the trends seen in late 2008. Hard to argue w/that.
Regarding the $, while I agree it should perform the crap Euro and Sterling, I look for it to continue to fall against the Yen, ultimately breaking its all time low (from the mid-90s) of about 79 (trading about 90 today). Once it breaks the low, who knows how much it might fall.
FLY
Whats the deal with KIM? What are you seeing in them? Debt?
only douchebags use the phrase “monetize traffic”. go back to techcrunch and feel yourself up whenever someone mentions “social”.
Here are the Kitco projections (and they are VERY scary):
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec222008.html
–joe
MAC look like the biggest POS to me in the RIET sector. They got a lot of debt plus most of their property is in the hardest hit parts of the country by the real estate bubble. They will beat KIM to zero.
You paint a nice portrait of a deflationary depression. However, I would just remind that if you follow the logic of a deflationary depression in the direction that you have laid out, then, one is absolutely talking about another large leg down in the valuation of assets in the banking system. There is no way the Dollar, and the Treasury issuance and monetization required to deal with that outcome, can survive.
In a deflationary depression, there will simply not be enough economic activity to service current credit card, mortgage, and commercial loan debt. All of the good borrowers will get sucked down in that leg. The escape valve will be the USD.
The USD is entering a tight envelope now where both successful reflation or a deepening of deflation will hurt it very badly. The USD needs a muddle through case to survive.
Oh: you should have predicted the risk of collapse in US Treasury bond prices–I know, I know–even though many are thinking the same thing. Sometimes it’s OK to join the other observers. After all, the capital hiding in Treasuries is all price-insensitive institutional and foreign CB money.
Anyway, I enjoyed your predictions. Better arm yourself with some Bullion (no ideology in that advice–just saying what will likely work to preserve purchasing power)
G
I guess this is gonna be a bad year for me to quit drinking
Juice and Snoopyic: thx. Nimbleness seems key. I’m riding today, jotting notes. Intraday and swing trades seem good for trading Q1 rise. Starting Q1 want to dump tbt at least partial recovery. Will use etfs to identify companies in target sectors for shorting weakest at opportune time: cb municipality insurance, kim iyr cre, mu usd semis, cvx ddg, solar, hotels, financials avc.com mentioned their analog inefficiences. Obama bailout cre poss plateau to get ahead of or next entry point. Want to find water longs. On the cave, interested gold long, will look at earlier Fly post on gold companies. Paper gld not so interested, nor taking delivery of the bars.
All these predictions are just plain SILLY,
especially Roger Weigand’s.
ON WHAT ARE THEY BASED? Governments worldwide are pumping money into the system and USA home values are already rising.
I predict ANYBODY with 10% down will be able to get a 4%-4.5% 30-year new mortgage; or ANYBODY will be able to get a mortgage re-fi at those same rates in 2009.
I predict that car sales will be HIGHER in 2009 than they were in 2008.
I predict oil will trade ABOVE $70; the DOW above 11,000 at some point in 2009.
I predict the Government will BAIL OUT THE STATES to the tune of $200 to $300 billion,
probably population-based BLOCK GRANTS.
And I am ALWAYS right, as evidenced by my record right here on Ibankcoin.
Huge Kuwait deal with Dow Chemical just fell apart…which will probably mean the end of Dow’s acquistion of Rohm and Haas.
Everyone make sure your chicken and hog pens are up to snuff. Wood going to 100.00 for a 12x6x2, nails going to 30 bucks a pound. Seeing trading copper, oops, nickel pennies for eggs. Forget cars, get a bicycle, and i don’t mean cards. Collect plastic bottles, essential for flushing toilets when water works cut out. And above all, learn to make candles again, like you did in kindergarten.
Just as Moses led the Jews out of Egypt to the Promised Land, I predict this man will lead us to Utopia in 2009.
http://www.nypost.com/photos/galleries/news/nationalnews/pp_20081217_obama_cig/photo03.htm
Whoo Fly, that’s some bleak shit.
Things are fucking real bad in our propped up, debt-ridden, economy. We are at the cuss of an economic paradigm shift. When Reagan became president, we started down a (good) path of less regulation, less taxes, free(r) trade, and free(r) markets. BUT, we also allowed these new wealth creators to become distorted by jackasses with no oversight, and no risk to themselves, which ultimately lead to the disaster that we’re now dealing with.
I hate these motherfuckers who greased their pockets at the expense of the American Way. These motherfuckers should have to give it all back … all of them! Starting with these Fuck-Asses:
Henry Paulson
Angelo Mozilo
Chuck Prince
Dick Fuld
Jimmy Cayne
Stan O’Neal
Your 2008 predictions sucked.
Why should this year’s be any better?
If PPT is a premium service, how does one subscribe?
Check out this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYTtNIOIGMs
What a comic!
8)
LOL Timmay, talk about The DOUCHE called a douche black.
Great predictions Fly but I think the bond bubble will start its long term price deterioration early in the coming year in anticipation of the “Helicopter Money Supply Economics” and the 2009 pseudo AAA two Trillion dollar borrowing orgy.
It’s back to the future 1970’s time’s two or more. Unless money is real almost all country facing bankruptcy will chose to avoided depression by inflating.
Fortunately for the unaccountable politicians most people do not understand currency devaluation.This makes it its much easier for them to avoid responsibilities,avoid paying debts in real dollars and blaming others for higher prices.No bankrupt country as borrows’ money at 0% for very long (if you know one please tell me.) This is an illusion of safety but the tie is coming down and very soon every one will realized that the emperor as no close.
still recollect timsykes one pick on Real Money that gave readers a howitzer in the face immediately. I believe that was his last post there. One and done. keep working those pink sheets, dude….
Illusion 888 Says:
Great predictions Fly but I think the bond bubble will start its long term price deterioration early in the coming year in anticipation of the “Helicopter Money Supply Economics” and the 2009 pseudo AAA two Trillion dollar borrowing orgy.
It’s back to the future 1970’s time’s two or more. Unless money is real almost all country facing bankruptcy will chose to avoided depression by inflating.
Fortunately for the unaccountable politicians most people do not understand currency devaluation.This makes it its much easier for them to avoid responsibilities,avoid paying debts in real dollars and blaming others for higher prices.No bankrupt country as borrows’ money at 0% for very long (if you know one please tell me.) This is an illusion of safety but the tide is coming down and very soon every one will realized that the emperor as no close.
i predict that the dow closes at 8500 on the last trading day of ’09.
Predictions are for suckers.
My prediction: US Fly numbers will increase next Summer and drop like flies in the Fall.
GenerationOilBottom,
I’m willing to bet oil goes under $20/barrel before $70
Did anybody read this?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec222008.html
what a load. you couldn’t write a better screenplay than this. I predict this ass will send this mishigas to hollywood and try and have it optioned. He’s a clown……
cnbc sucks
Sounds like a happy fucking new year indeed!
Have to admire the way you pony up your balls on the chopping block like that, Fly.
Damn Fly, those are hefty… I think we all hope you’re wrong for the economy’s sake, but we all know you’re pretty dead on with a couple of those. Good Luck in 2009, we’ll all be here with you!
ZM
No war in 2009? Odd.
I am having solar burritos and mazta balls for lunch fuckers.
fly.. your bright outlook to the future is comforting ..but i think your overly optimistic..in fact the guy who posted on kitco is overly optimistic
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec222008.html
My predictions:
– I will win the Nobel Peace Prize after inventing the “Biscuit & Gravy Diet” sending many unsuspecting fatties to a premature grave, saving billions in health care costs.
– I will personally acquire Dynamic Materials Corp for $50M in cash, and will sell the POS to Monsanto just in time for the launch of “Clad Corn” a grain so indestructible you can eat it, pass it, and nano gift it to poor souls starving in Hanabawazastan or Detroit, your choice. As a result, I will be the keynote speaker at the 2010 TED conference. JakeGint will make $100M by brokering the transaction and getting a 1% vig on each ear of corn sold.
– Drug addicts will replace expensive, luxury, habits with “hot, hot coffee” injections. Under my supervision, Dunkin’ Donuts will launch a philanthropic effort to start Hot Hot Coffee Clinics (HHCCs) in every US city. Bono will partner with HHCC, via his PRODUCT RED effort, to brand the coffee (RED)EYE GRAVY. I will be named an honorary member of U2.
On a slightly more serious note:
– Plastic surgery will become Age of Excess’ badge of shame.
– Goodwill, Salvation Army, etc. will become the hottest teen shopping destinations, with mainstream media features covering the phenomenon.
– Two new social conscientiousness movements will take root amongst teens, but not truly felt in mainstream society for 5 – 10 years: 1) A new spiritual revival, rejecting materialism in favor of faith and its mandates for social justice, 2) A rejection of capitalism and in its stead a new American Socialism will emerge.
– Google will acquire Twitter
– Steve Jobs will retire
– EMI will be bankrupted, Apple’s iTunes will acquire exclusive distribution rights to EMI’s catalog of music. Warner and Sony Music will form an alliance with Amazon to counter this.
That is all for now.
Fly,
Please ban fucktards that follow the mentally infirm “geniuses” at kitco and the like.
At the very least make donuts from their sphincters so people will have something to eat in the coming depression…
this will give you some in site how it is going to start working. and how they’ve all ready have it moving foreword go to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0PxXlvRRqc&NR=1. copy and paste to your web browser , or click on my website
Oh, MSFT will acquire Facebook outright and SBUX is acquired by MCD for $5/share.
i dont want to be a donut in the upcomming depression ..please make me into a non taxed bullet ..as the govt has or will be placing a $0.05–$0.10 tax per bullet in the future ..
being from pennsylvania i dont see much revenue comming from this area.. as the chosen one stated in his california rants we carry guns in 1 hand bibles in the other …but what his dumb ass wasnt in tune with >>hunting cabins filled with untaxed bullets ..
i thought the govt only taxed things that were in high demand
That Kitco guy is a fucking lunatic.
TIM:
Go fuck one of your 2nd rate DVD’s. You’re a fucking shameless huckster and will pay for your transgressions.
Good luck with your bullshit penny stock schtick on ’09, fuckface.
cnn reporting unrest in israel here we go …and it starts
arch, your ass has been saved (at least part of it) only to become a spent bullet casing…
Fly, save whatever u want, i know how to monetize….and my people are proving that they’re making money on Covestor, u just have the Elitetrader crowd, congrats, no wonder why your site makes zilch…as for my transgressions, i lay it all out there baby, i got nothing to hide, makes like easier
Well then, you have it made. Monetize on young man. However, it’s not about who can suck the coin out of the internet the fastest. It’s the steady hand that will win in the end.
Who the hell is Elitetrader?
My crowd is organic. I don’t need to promote the site. It’s self promoting, as evidenced by your quick retort.
Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them—a crop like this doesn’t come along every year.
1. “A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!” —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008
At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.
2. AIG (AIG) “could have huge gains in the second quarter.” —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008
AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.
3. “I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They’re not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward.” —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008
Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.
4. “The market is in the process of correcting itself.” —President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech
For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting…and correcting…and correcting.
5. “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008
Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.
6. “Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008” —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007
On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million—down 11% from a year earlier—in the worst housing slump since the Depression.
7. “I think you’ll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year” —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008
Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.
8. “I expect there will be some failures. … I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.” —Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008
In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (C) needed an even bigger rescue in November.
9. “In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules.” —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007
About a year later, Madoff—who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market—told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.
10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can’t Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.
Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama
I dont normally check your shitty site, bunch of actively traded stocks with no edge written by a guy who’s too cowardly to reveal himself or his track record…I found my name on Google Alerts like any responsible blogger should…as for you ripping on my DVDs, I did the best I could and I’ve got hundreds of testimonials…you have no right to say anything, all you do is talk smack without being able to back it up…the steady hand, kinda like my consistent gains, wins, but cowards never do….enjoy your “organic” traffic, those who blow out their accounts following the advice of a masked blogger can still view websites but their wallets and hits are meaningless, just like your website
2009 Prediction: Timothy Sykes sentenced to 24 months in prison for the manipulation of penny stocks.
I never has the dishonour of viewing your pathetic dvd’s, nor would I ever waste my time.
People like you often find themselves in front of FINRA for an on the record. Although I do not wish that upon you, it is coming. Unfortunately, mark my words.
As for my identity:
I am not a sociopath and have no need to self promote, in the manner that you shamefully conduct yourself. I am dutifully employed and do not make a living through promoting pink sheet stocks on the internet, for a group of hapless homos, who regularly frequent your advertisement page, I mean “blog.”
At the end of the day, you’re just some loser trying to impress people with your idiotic strategies, while I’m simply bowling on people like you—for fun of course.
Now fuck off.
Only a couple of quibbles, as usual:
GOOG will trade down to $250.
GOOG has already traded to $250 so this is not a stretch.
Taxes will rise, drastically.
Does not make much sense given the rest of your scenario, unless you think Congress has suddenly grown balls.
_______
meow! Kitty (timmy) want some milk?
ZING!
Here’s a tip: don’t talk about stuff you don’t know shit about…having never watched my DVDs, you wouldnt know that I rarely ever trade pink sheet stocks…and if I do, I short the fuck outta them….as for FINRA, why would they ever be interested in me? I disclose all my positions ahead of time, outline exactly what I’m gonna do before I do it, detail my entire strategy for all to see and anticipate, hold long enough not to trade against my subscribers…if I’m forced to stop trading, then so be it, aint nobody gonna stop me giving my opinion, an opinion which has proven to be right the vast majority of the time.
I love how you back away from your track record, pussie…typical cubicle monkey behavior, enjoy your imaginary success
The PPT will remain an enigma, never becoming available to any of the readers of iBankCoin.
MOS and POT will continue to yo-yo 15-25% on a bi-weekly basis, making tidy profits for traders, before falling victim to the grain/corn debacle in the 2nd half.
Pam Anderson’s Boobs will implode.
Entire housing tracts in the Inland Empire and Riverside County of Southern California including: Indio, La Quinta, Indian Wells, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Palm Springs…will be vacated due to water bills exceeding mortgage payments.
The Fly will have a book published.
Americans will finally realize that WIC “free money” style programs, bleeding huge amounts of cash on illegal immigration, have been terrible for the national economy and jobs, and actually demand some serious change.
Unemployment will reach 17%
CNBC will terminate all male anchors, replacing them with hot, young, well-educated, big-titted babes
iBankCoin will hire Cramer to work in the Peanut Gallery.
Look at your own life experience in 2008. Does this past year indicate to you what is in store for you in 2009? Are you certain? Are you certian that the US Economy will be worse in 2008 than in 2009?
Are you certain of any of these predictions? Why?
Check out some safe harbor statements instead…
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2008/12/new-years-week-safe-harbor-statements.html
GNE
I don’t buy this whole FLY and Tim Sykes exchange. I call BS. Its another ploy by IBC to jack up traffic. Create a Tim Skyes v FLY rivalry. Kind of like Tupac v Biggie Smalls. Besides why would Sykes be posting on this blog. He’s too busy banking coin on his. While why would FLY even bother responding to Timmay. FLY manages like $50 mil vs Sykes who has a bullshit 50k account.
1. I post when there’s Bs being written about me
2. I dont trade with $50k, it’s $43k, up from $12k one year ago
3. Yes I manage a small account, its a friggin test account so my subscribers can see how to and not to trade…neandertahls dont understand why I’d only trade with a small % of my assets, but then again, they, like The DipShit Fly, think the road to riches is making 20-30% managing millions annually.
4. I’m banking $50k/month teaching the poorest of the poor how to trade…wait til u see what i make as my acocunt grows to $100k, $250k, $500k, it’ll put your shitty management fees to shame
5. IBC doesnt need traffic, it needs qulity traffic, that is never possible with his cowardly approach…too afraid to offend people, the guy is destined to be a busboy all his life
Fly, are you high?
40-doom & gloom predictions after the worst market since 29?
Boring. And Shallow.
timothy sykes went bust a few years ago. he touts penny stocks. he is not worthy of posting on any site other than covestor.
who is this guy tim sykes?
is he like the sham wow guy?
I love this egotistical battle!
Tim Sykes wrote a book about his great success as a hedge fund trader (who happened to go bust).
He now post on his own site which traffics amateurish trading products.
Sykes has little cash – so his posts are on covestor instead of running a hedge fund since his last one went belly up.
“Short Selling Penny Stocks”
http://timothysykes.com/
DOLPHINS 14
jets 6
Both of you are fighting over the Internet about your Internet blogs. People read this site because it’s funny and entertaining amongst the mundane sites that do nothing but sell their own crap. Hopefully the PPT doesn’t cloud your original intentions- entertainment and trading ideas.
The major difference between Fly and Tim is scalability. Fly’s money management strategy can be used with any sum of money. The only thing that stops the Fly is the size of his bank’s vault.
Remember, fighting on blogs is like winning the Special Olympics. Even if you prevail, you’re still fucking retarded.
Sykes is God!
Yes, the difference is scalability, rich people can ignore people, every poor person int eh world should read me…somehow The Fly’s got a lot of poor people thinking they can play in the big leagues…poor people listen up: come down to where its easier and where your small account can be used to your advanatge! (look u dont even have to spell properly!)
Check out these brutal 2008 predictions that went tits up on a hurry..
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2008/db20081224_028134.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis
And that Special Olympics analogy was totally uncalled for.. some of the bravest people in the world you are tearing down there, grow up.
I don’t want any part of a blog war, but I do want to highlight that I have published strategies that could be traded by someone with an account of 10K.
Those who can’t, teach.
Fly,
I refuse to believe that Uncle Howard has anything to do with that reprehensible asshat, Tim Sykes (aka, “The Joe Francis of the Penny Stock Slime”).
I demand you offer a full and heart-felt apology this minute.
___________
Anyone watching this Eagle-Crackboy game? It’s like eating a rich desert — I almost feel guilty.
Crackboy fans — listen, I feel your pain.
___________
Oh, that’s right…
No I don’t.
____________
DOLPHINS 14
jets 6
_____________
Update:
Phins — 21
Jests — 17
This one is “not over yet,” much to the chagrin of a certain South Florida money manager and his three sons.
___________
I begged off issuing a forecast issue a year ago [for 2008] but feel comfortable doing one for next year 2009.
Lets get right to it.
Jan 2nd,
Fly gets back to work after taking the last month off.
AAA corporate bonds
…Probably up in price but not radically.
Jan 18th, Fly swears off all inverse ETF’s…AGAIN.
Mrs Fly finds out he lost more on inverse ETF’s and hits him in the side of the head with a cast iron pan. She don’t like her future divorce settlement squandered and means business!
Gov’t Bonds-
This is a tough one.
They are going to tank and are a bad long term bet IMO, but the timing of that tankage is uncertain. The FED is hell bent to do whatever it takes to get the economy moving in a direction other than South and they have stated a willingness to print up all kind of digitial money and use it to buy Govt. Bonds. [and also, get 30 yr. Mortgage interest rates down to 4.5%] to keep Treasury Bond prices high and yields low or lower.
With such a big printing press, well oiled, they may well be able to continue to prop up bond prices and keep yields artificually low for a while. [or even make yields go lower-maybe] If one owns these, one may want to keep a firm eye on the exit for signs the bond market is going to revolt at the revulsion of what the FED is doing. But, since this will be the antithisis to a “free market”, trying to time the T-Bonds price demise ahead of time is…I’d say, impossible. [not past this year though]
March 23rd.
Mr Fly breaks toe kicking yet another bony old man down an elevator shaft. The injury is egregiously painful as Fly writes on the blackboard 100 times.
Thou shalt treat others as they would wish to be treated.
The U.S. Stock Market:
To me, this is the side show to the main feature.
I’d guess The Dow and S&P would be up at year end 2009 but the U.S. stock market is still the side show.
Until proven otherwise, the U.S. market is in a secular bear market that started in 2000. It has been and will be punctuated with cyclical bull markets which are quite playable but not everlasting.
2009 will probably see some nifty upside action at some point which will make investors feel a lot better than they did in Oct. Still, a cyclical bull in a long term bear is about the best one can hope for. Even cyclical bulls feel pretty good though.
China Stock Market:
Again, tough call.
The World Bank still believes China will grow 9.1% in 2009 after 9.3% this year.
I think the wold Bank is smoking goofy weed. .
Growth is likely to be more like zero to plus 5% with near zero likely the first 3-6 months and then growth after that.
Their main export markets are hurting badly and will continue to do so for 4-6 months at best before there are those first signs of recovery in them.
Domestic consumption, while growing in importance, is not sufficient to offset this.
Gov’t spending [and stimulative policies] will be cranked up and that will help but, with the normal delay before results show up.
I think China is a rifelshot approach for the next year.
Those companies who’s growth can remain very high will be big winners as their valuations got compressed like nothing I’ve ever witnessed. I’m quite sure doubles will come from this area. Those companies tied to the economy or commodities will have to slug it out for attention and favor. They will have to show their earnings can hold up reasonably well in order for the stocks to do well.
The Big cap china stocks in FXI?. I don’t know them well enough and by now, the FXI has had a very large gain coming off it’s Oct lows. That move takes away some upside potential but like the U.S. I’d guess the FXI still ends the year higher than now. It’s not of high interest though and picking individual [China] stocks should prove far more lucrative becasuse the market did not discriminate when it took them all down. There are some real good girls the market took down and as cooler heads prevail, they should go to honors class.
It’s hard to pick [the best] individual winners as surprises can and do occur but I will say that as of right now, stocks with the charactericts of China Sky One Medical are the kind I’m talking about. Even though CSKI has more than doubled in two months, the stock is still cheap compared to it’s growth rate and chart wise, it’s a beauty.
April 19th.
Cheaters catches Mr. Fly at Starbucks sharing a grande hazelnut Latte with his secret lover Jackson. Fly pays off Cheaters and Mrs Fly is none the wiser.
Real Estate_
Hard to make blanket statements here as there is commercial and residential real estate and they have their own dynamics.
Residential real estate may finally find a bottom this year but I don’t have a lot to back that up with other than some faith that the Fed’s and Gov’s efforts at reflation and stabilization will start taking hold. [it’s also hard for individuals to play without buying select properties].
I wish I knew REITS better as there has to be some great long term values in here. This is really a big area because it encompasses everything from shopping mall reits, storage building reits, warehouse reits, apartment complex reits, medical center reits and a lot more.
Now finally we come to what is of main interest here. The BIG opportunities for 2009.
The U.S. Dollar:
I believe the U.S. Dollar should experience significant depreciation against gold.
The only thing that makes me the least uneasy about this bet is that it looks so sure. I really mean that.
How the Dollar will fare against other fiat currencies like the Yen and Euro looks less certain. It’s more a battle of the weaklings here. The fundamentals of each country or zone are not supportive of a strong currency. There is great temptation for competetive devlauations which I’ve covered in a recent email.
From where it stands right now though, it appears the Dollar should decline against a basket of other currencies but in some respects this is like trying to pick winners and losers among the worst and near worst of football teams when they play each other.
None of them look good compared to the #1 “currency” or monetary store of value which is gold.
If this gold outlook seems like a boring rehash of what I’ve been liking and writing about since 2001, let one consider that gold has gone up 7 years in a row. It’s up about 5% this year so far and if it holds those gains, this makes 8 in a row.
Almost nothing else has outperformed gold since the 2001 low. It has way more than tripled since then.
I was not willing to committ to a statement of 2008 outperformace a year ago, but I am willing to do so for 2009.
The Gold/Dow ratio has declined from it’s peak of 44 oz of gold to buy the Dow to now, with Fridays move up in gold, the ratio moved to just under 10 to 1. Gold at $870 and the Dow at 8,500. Just divide gold per oz into the Dow to get the ratio.
Over the next few years [2012-2015?], that ratio should move towards my many years ago target of 5 or under. Events and responses [economic] the last few months lead me to conclude there is even a possibility the Dow Gold ratio could move to less than 1 to 1. One ounce of gold could sell for more than the Dow. I’m not saying it is a probability, but it’s odds, as a distinct possibility, have moved much higher than they were before about Sept of this year.
A 5 to 1 Gold dow ratio has huge implications of where one would want to be invested. Should the ratio move to less than 1 to 1, it obviously would be a far different world than what we are living in now. Needless to day, the investment implications are enormous.
Gold is not a side show for “them/me/we- [alternative investment investors]”.
The Stock market is a side show for gold. The stock market is being strangled year by year by an ever tightening noose of a compressing Gold Dow ratio.
A secular bull market in stocks is all but impossible in an environment where the Gold Dow ratio goes from 44 to less than 10 [as it is now] and quite possibly to well under 5. All one can get are cyclical bull markets within a long term secular bear. [unless the outcome of what is being done results in a hyperinflationary boom that takes all assets far higher in nominal terms, but not much higher in depreciated currency terms] Gold is the most pure form of money.
It’s the standard of monetary measurement….one who’s quanity can not be inflated by the whims of man. That is quite unlike Fiat currnecies like the U.S.Dollar who’s quantity can and has been inflated far beyond that required to maintain economic growth. The U.S. Dollar has lost 95% of it’s purchasing power over the last 100 years and will continue to lose purchasing power.
Gold supply-annual mine production is actually less now than it was at the start of the gold bull market. Gold had gone from $250 an ounce to $850 an ounce despite Central Banks selling between 400 and 500 tons a year and in all likelihood with the U.S. Gov’t leasing part of it’s gold to bullion banks who have sold it into the market.
There is increasing interest among Mid East and Asian Govt’s to hold more of their wealth reserves in gold as diversification away from having so much concentrated in U.S. Dollar denominated assets which, in their view, look increasingly vulnerable as the U.S. goes on a “[re]inflate or die” quest to vanquish deflation.
The Chinese only have a small reserve of 600 tons of gold and are considering adding to that to the tune of 4,000 tons over time. [all central banks hold about 29,000 tons of gold] The world looks different when one looks at gold and currencies the way I do now.
Gold has been desireable by man for thousands of years. That will not change in our lifetimes.
Gold has a history as a countries vital reserves of wealth-especially that backing it’s currency.
That is true even for the Unites States. Even though the U.S. Dollar became The worlds Reserve Currency in 1981, severing it’s ties to gold backing…The Govt still holds an enormous quanity of gold [over 8,000 tons]. If the U.S. truly felt that Gold was an ancient relic, no longer useful, it would have long ago sold all of it’s gold. That has not happened. It’s a vital asset and is seen as such by almost every major country in the world.
An ounce of gold 1,000 years ago is the same as an ounce of gold now. The only thing that changes over time is the value of fiat currencies that are measured against it. If a country has a sound fiscal and monetary policy, it’s currency holds it’s value [or even increases in value] against an ounce of gold. If a country has unsound fiscal and monetary policies, it’s currency is debased-devalued vs. that one ounce of gold.
The U.S. has had unsound policies which has resulted in it’s currency being devalued by over 60% vs. gold since 2001.
In the next 5-7 years it’s quite possible the U.S. dollar will go on to lose over 90% of it’s value vs. that ounce of gold.
I’d also expect the Euro and Yen to lose value vs. an oz of gold. If fact, even the formerly favored and always strong Swiss Frank hit a new low vs gold [1 month ago], so even the Swisss Frank is no longer being seen as a sound currency.
As previously stated, we may even get to the point where the U.S. Dollar is officially devalued vs. gold in an all out effort to jump start this deflation gripped economy and pay off debts with devalued dollars officially instead of just unofficial policy. If not official, it will be unofficial with a wink and a nod. Result will end up the same.
I did not intend for this to end up being such a long statement about gold, but I do not think one can operate well in the investment world going forward without having this kind of base of knowledge and outlook. So much is going to be about currencies, their relation to gold, and the implications of all of it for world investors.
The longer the U.S. Federal Reserve tries to prop up [buy with instant created Dollars] or increase Gov’t Treasury bond prices, the effect will fall on the U.S. dollars shoulders as it deprciates even faster against gold.
Silver should also do very well in 2009 even though it’s much more the industrial precious metal. The price got depressed enough that it’s industrial use curtailment got fully discounted in it’s low price and that low price gave no benefit to it’s residual monetary value which is still present.
Two stocks that I really like in the Silver area are Silver Standard Resources SSRI [which I used to own but have been out of for a couple of years] and Silver Wheaton SLW [which I still do own from a buy about 3 yrs ago.] Both are up about 140% from their lows two months ago but technically and chart wise, they look fantastic to me me right now. With my positive outlook for silver in 2009, I think they look good for long term gains also. My favorite of the two by a very slight edge would be SSRI. One can also buy SLV which gives one almost an ounce of silver for each share purchased.
Buying actual silver has become a tough proposition because of the huge premiums one must pay unless taking delivery of a futures contract of 5,000 ounces each.
Premiums have also become high for buying retail forms of gold which includes small bars and one ounce coins. Not as high as for silver but compared to pre-2008, high premiums now.
One can go with the gold ETF symbol GLD which gives one almost 1/10th of gold for each share purchased.
Another route is to go with an ETF of gold mining stocks like GDX. GDX got dirt cheap vs. the underlying price of gold in Oct and has rallied back very strongly with a gain of almost 100% in the avg gold mining stock since the Oct. lows.
I still feel they are a decent value-maybe even slightly undervalued vs. the price of gold and they could be considerd as a way to play golds likely ascent. Some of the better individual gold stocks would be IMO-Barrick ABX, GoldCorp GG, Kinross KGC, Randgold GOLD, Both Gold and Silver are up about 20% off their fall lows, so the GDX ETF of big gold stocks going up nearly 100% in that same time shows how much they have been playing catch up and it shows how absurdly depressed they got relative to the gold price at the depths of the fall panic selling in almost everything.
Aug 21st.
The anointed one with flowing 18K gilded robes starts looking at charts and ups his gain for the year from 36% to 59% over the next 5 weeks. He feels so good, he forgets his vow and kicks yet anohter old man down the stairs. This time Fly has learned his lesson. Kick only fat old men,not bony ones.
Crude OIL-I don’t think I’ll speculate on where crude will end up 2009. The futures say higher than where it is now and I’d go along with that but have no strong opinion and no strong urge to play it at this time. It’s actually difficult to play for a lot of reasons I won’t take the time to go into other than give one example: If you buy USO the ETF of crude oil, you are buying futures contract on crude which the ETF rolls over to new contracts when the old contracts come due. The forward futures are a lot higher priced than the current spot price [in significant contango], so holders of USO are faced with constantly eroding premiums. One could bet right on the directin of crude and end up not making much money because of the contango erosion over time.
Playing low crude by buying EXXON or Chevron??. That seems pretty dicey as both are already trading at a price where buyers are already pricing xon and cvx. as if crude is more like $75/barrel than the current price of $40 or so.
The grains?
I think they will show solid gains by year end. There has already been a good recovery with corn bottoming at $3/bushel and last Friday it went over $4/bushel. I think there is still room for the big 3…soybeans, corn, and wheat to be priced higher at the end of 2009 but 2007 highs are probably not in the cards unless there is really severe weather [drought] in the big soybean or corn growing areas. [including S.America. for Soybeans- now experiencing dry weather].
Nov 23rd.
Fly chokes on a grape being fed to him by his trusty servant Seymour. Seymore performs a tracheotomy on his master with Fly’s prized Breguet Pen.
Fly lives, but Seymore is summarily fired.
Again.
Copper, nickel, zinc etc…who knows? Probably some recovery but it will take solid signs of world growth resuming to get the base metal prices really moving up.
That’s about it.
Going to be a very interesting year.
Above are my opinions only and you decide what is right for you. As always, do your own DD.
Opinions and feedback, always welcome and appreciated.
Naturally I reserve the right to change my mind on any of these opinions as circumstances unfold.
Good luck to all of you in the New Year.
Thanks, SC
OH yes…How about CASH…currently THE most popular investment of them all?
Even at zero or 1% interest rate it’s a good place to be with deflation taking the prices of many “goods” lower [in the short term] which means you get to buy more next month than you could this month [except for medical, college tuition etc].
While one is always fortunate to have cash…the more the better [g], as an “investment”, it’s likely to be a poor choice long term.
“Good investment” along with a Fed Statement “we will do whatever necessary” to reflate are not highly compatible phrases.
I think eventually cash loses value through currency depreciation.
I think cash will severely underperform gold and many other “targeted” investments like high growth companies selling at severely discounted values to their likely worth. [Some are located in China…much to your non-surpise by now]
TIPS…Treasury Protected Securities are probably a good [buy and] place for one to be with their long term “ultra safe” money as they provide a nice return of 2 or 3% above whatever inflation turns out to be.
Yawwwnnn.
Finally…gold will not always be good. There will be a time where it will get overvalued vs. stocks and currencies and then it will enter another 20 year plus bear market where the Gold Dow ratio will expand greatly. That time is likely to still be far away.
If you follow this forecast, you are likely to end up wealthy…
and psychotic…
SC
UPDATE
DOLPHINS 24
jets 17
too close for comfort
Timmay, why are your posts always filled with piss and vinegar? Oh that’s right, I forgot, you are The DOUCHE.
No,the correct saying is “those who can’t do in scalable strategies, teach…those with unscalable strategies who do and teach, bank and are fulfilled”
i hate all these people who post random picks without ever showing their track records or faces…its pathetic, 2009 or 2010 will be the year of transparency where people like the fly will either have to fess up to reality or fade into oblivion, i’m rooting for him but i have little faith in anyone in this joke of an industry
and thank u for the comparison to joe francis, he made the mistake of exploiting underage girls, i just exploit underpriced stocks…my stocks are run by scum, might as well learn to profit from them legally by short selling their asses! dont hate the teacher, hate the game
santacruz..
i wasnt aware that gold and other precious metals traded at ratios to the dow ..would you be so kind as to post a govt link stating that exchange rate ..otherwise i have to dismiss your theory as unsolicited spamming
I am in agreement with much said by Santa Cruz, the new Santa Claus.
______________
Jests have 28 seconds to make something happen.
Looking bleak for the Man (Not So) Genius.
_______________
Oh good, only 99 yards to go.
Elway in the house?
________
Arch,
“Better to remain silent than remove all doubt,” eh?
________
FINAL
DOLPHINS 24
jets 17
DOLPHINS DIVISION CHAMPS
after being 1-15 last year.
As much as I’d have liked to see “little brother” Jests get in the playoffs, they did not deserve it after faltering in the second half of the year.
And you have to feel good about Sperano and Tuna turning the Phins around in one year like that.
Sperano (sp?) seems like a very likeably guy, as well, unlike the mistakenly named “Man-genius.”
_____________
Santa Cruz,
I am not in agreement with your aspersions on the Fly’s personal life.
He is a family man, without “goomah,” and who is “Jackson?”
Andrew, maybe?
_______
ok i will admit you can say there is a ratio that gold is selling at when compared to the dow and every day it changes ..show me a fixed ratio then… and i will shut up ..the dow has nothing to say about the world spot price of gold ..although there is a ratio of gold to silver established by the u.s for the u.s a minimum i would guess .
you are correct about its“Better to remain silent than remove all doubt,” show me or shut up
Gotta love a good ally.
The Jews “do their bit” to mitigate the Madoff mess.
Thanks fellahs.
___________-
the fucktard futures traders of gold are no better off then the fucktard oil futures traders and i think you know where they went ..
get in the funnel fucktards
Arch,
I tried to politely and without embarassment tell you to shut the fuck up.
You did not.
Here’s an update. My three year old knows about the Dow-gold ratio, literally a seminal tenet of basic investing in commodities and/or stocks.
Get a clue, you fucking asshat.
Oh, and learn to take a hint, eh?
_____________
i predict the fly will be about 50/50 in his predictions, much like last year. everything is a 50/50 bet. anyone who claims otherwise is fooling himself. except cramer, who magically loses all the time.
i suspect this is the cause for delay in the ppt. dopey computers merely reveal the fallacy that this game isnt always a 50/50 bet. we havent seen one nugget to suggest the ppt works.
“At the end of the day, you’re just some loser trying to impress people with your idiotic strategies, while I’m simply bowling on people like you—for fun of course.”
that pretty much sums Timsykes up…. what’s funny is how he has to come to YOUR site to be all defensive & makes a big fucking deal about having made over 200% on chump change… woopee fucking doo da… and yet makes assumptions on the Fly’s track record which he really has no clue about…yes, Timmay is a fucktard indeed
FLY, please find a way to keep that fucktard Timmay from polluting your message boards… he’s so fucking annoying
I WANT IN ON THIS BLOG WAR. I want to form an alliance with one of you. My battle rap rhymes are legendary and my picks squash both your records.
2009 – THE YEAR OF RICH.
WHO DARE SUMMONS THE GHOST OF ELWAY?!
jake if your holding onto gold and think its going to 2,000 ..its not… 1,500 ,not going there either ,1000..thats a maybe now with the israel thing going on but its doubtfull ..
if you beleave the dow dictates the worlds gold spot price it doesnt do that either ..ever hear of the london exchange ???
you dont have to worry about causing me embarassment ..
now get in the funnel
Jake,
gotta love the chosen ones. LOL.
crude–39.82
i would rather see a cease fire.
Buy my dvd’s.
Arch,
Sorry, I have trouble speaking “dumbass.”
You’ll forgive me if I continue to ignore you?
_____________
Chivas,
You cannot blame them. There’s only so much random rocketing a civilized nation living under the baleful stare of a freedom hating UN can take.
_________
Fly,the PPT will remain on my imaginary fly wish list. Getr the product out or shut up about it. Oh and fuck off with the fly/tim fued. Your both assholes.
jake your forgiven,
your opinion is important to me and your worldly veiws on this subject are extremely important …
dont let a little misunderstanding ( probably on my part ) result in conflict ..
sorry if i offended
Canuck:
Your Mother is a moose. I will talk, talk and talk some more, while you read it like a foolish sap.
Fuck off.
Please, everyone, get your grammar game correct. It is vexing me.
Coming 2009:
“The Fly’s” instructional video collection:
How to kick an old man down an idle sewer pipe and get away with it.
Idiots guide to punching off mustaches.
Monetizing your mailman and local farmer.
Jake – it is true.
BTW: THE PPT is done. I just have not launched it yet.
Arch, no offense taken.
I am irascible thanks to a double NY loss today, and am likely taking my ire out in undeserved places.
There is much available on the Dow-gold ratio, if you are interested in throwing in the google query, btw.
___________
My lawyers will be in touch with you about your use of the letter “T” in “PPT.”
In short, expect me to get a third of the profits, since “PPT” is way too close to “DT.”
Thanks. Happy holidays.
-DT
DT, DT is already an acronym.
Since DT is already part of the lexicon it cannot be protected, so sorry.
The Fly will return to me as soon as the VIX is north of 60. Then he will swear me off again, 6 more times in 2009.
It is very gay for bloggers to fight.
Why don’t you two do each other and call it even?
i bet this old man can kick your fucking ass.
Fly’s predictions suck.
prediction: fly’s get swated, then flushed down the shitter. fuck your predictions.
for those interested the asian gold market is open and up $18.60
jake
im not interested in buying gold at this price what i am interested in is shorting gold from the $900 level as to rebuy my gold collection or help anyways ..with the israli shit going on right now it just threw a fuckn wrench into my plan …
so if you know a way to short gold i would be very interested in hearing
lmao @ Chivas…
LOL. Woody
Danny,
Apologies. I was “on” White Rhinos when I wrote that comment.
-DT
Didn’t know I was organic, but I will take it. No more pesticide for me.
I believe T. Sykes was referring to the Elite Trader site.
http://www.elitetrader.com/
Some of the posts are good and some are nonsense.
Go Gators and Dolphins.
Fly, “your” not the grammar police, R U?
Arch, I was not making any prediction on the direction of gold, fwiw. I sold half my RGLD and SLW last week.
And if I were a betting man, I’d venture that gold got turned away at 900 ovah heah.
That said, I have high hopes that Fly’s prediction of $500-ish gold comes through as I will be buying with both fists.
___________
If I want to see gay fights, I’d visit some porn site.
No more fighting, please.
homosayswhat?
jake i hope THE FLYS prediction on gold comes to be …DZZ is the only thing i can find that shorts gold ..even with a 5 handle i still cant buy it looking for a 3.5
You people are making me fucking sick tonight. All of the retards from Yahoo come here?
I don’t know who this clown impersonating me is. I would never start a fight with a fellow internet blogger. I apologize in advance for any of his future posts – it’s not me, maybe if you ignore him he will go away.
THE FLY IS GOD
Best of luck and good wishes to you in ’09.
The real
Timothy Sykes
http://timothysykes.com/
Great now i have impersonators, typical useless thread evolution…have fun kids, i’ve got better things to do, some people actually do want to learn how to trade rather just hear no-edge prediction after no-edge prediction
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not me
THE FLY IS GOD
I did enjoy watching T. Sykes on MOJO, however, having one’s Mom clean the apartment was a bit much. I hope you have been nice to her on Mother’s Day.
Great. Go teach your fucking small class of idiots how to shoot themselves into a fucking holding cell, in lower Manhattan.
Sound strategy.
Both Timothy Sykes, the obeisant and the petulant, need to go get their fucking shineboxes.
__________
jake im only trying to bank coin on the downturn of the spot price ..im not trying to bank coin on any company
FLY, your site rocks, your twitter sucks, no more coffee and bordeaux crap…the world is ending, cant we come up with something more topical? Knowing when you take a dump doesnt do me/us any good, sorry. Happy New yEar
shine box is going in the dictionary. In honour of guidos nation wide. It’s just such a timeless phrase.
Another dark list
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2008/12/13-outlier-2009-predictions.html
That Fly is one godly SOB! Fly Rules!
first item under weekend headlines is a must read.
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/
RE: water utilities
very keen indeed, been building position in CWT for weeks now….AWK as well….both trading over 22 and 55 MA-actually positions i’ve held overnight for some time…
Jake, top 10 predictions for 09?
Can anyone please explain how the fuck AZO is 132.23 with all the freaking debt on their balance sheet? Can I get a PPT score on it?
I could care less about Twitter.
fly
i do beleave 1 of your many illegals has omitted a word in your dictionary ..but i could be wrong
the funnel i beleave needs an explanation .
would it be possible to have that included?
AZO score is 3.20
chivas, tired of hearing about all “the cash on the sidelines” crap. Retards have been spewing that bullshit for the last 9 months. Same old same old. Can’t wall street come up with some new bullshit to start the new year? BTW, if everybody has so much free cash why is there record debt, record home foreclosures, record bankruptcies and record bailouts?
FLY, I see that u like Water Utilities.Any thoughts on
TTEK?
arch – the funnel is a new inclusion for 2008.
still time to submit words
http://www.ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/index.php/2008/12/20/attn-all-readers/
goldie – heard somewhere that AZO has outperformed all other stocks in the SP500 in previous recessions. Have no idea on the veracity of that though grains of salt plz.
AZO’s rank in the PPT Universe
Today: 30 2008-12-26
One week (5 sessions) ago: 356 2008-12-19
One month (20 sessions) ago: 928 2008-11-28
>The S&P 500 will fall by 10%.
SP500 moves by few percentage points in just a week… so it is very likely that it will be down by 10% (or up by 10%) sometime in 2009
Thanks Danny,
I guess AZO might outperform in recessions because people keep their clunkers running by buying parts instead of trading in for new cars.
Fly,
Thanks for the PPT hook-up.
Also consider 401k contributions will greatly reduced by employees as well as no matching/percentage contributions by employers such as FEDEX.
My predictions for 2009…
Devildog will become the newest member of the IBC blogging team. Each blog will read “new lows coming”. The Raiders will win the AFC conference. The following day the sun will explode. Plan accordingly.
devilpuppy,
“Chivas, tired of hearing ” all the cash on the sidelines” crap”
this time you did not hear it, you read it. those were not wallstreet stats, they came from the fed.
puppy, do me a favor, just ignore my comments, don’t read them.
I predict that you shouldn’t fuck with Weng Weng
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqh5O9LbjhY
…Ah Hem…excuse me…but…
“Ford merges with GM” ???
———————————————————
That is just BLASPHEMY !!!
.
Ether – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ePQKD9iBfU
BREAKING NEWS:
Vince “the SHAMWOW guy” introduces:
“THE SLAP CHOP”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUbWjIKxrrs
Kuwait cancels $17B deal with DOW. ruh roh!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28411637
i saw that little bit about dow. may as well give them some tarp money now. why not.
Mr. Sham Wow Slap Chop is pretty funny.
@ :55 “You’re gonna love my nuts.”
@ 2:29 “Tacos, fettuccine, linguine, martini, bikini.”
The Shamwow guy is really a winner. A former Scientologist too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Offer
http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi3136618777/
Vince vs. Billy Mays: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWRGRZCvLmg
DD You mean **this** type of cash on the sidelines bs?:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=ahP6Cp0P5m2k&refer=home
Them blackrock people iz smart, and they wants everyone 2 make loads o’ dough and b rich and shit. Lissen up fuzz nutz.
Don’t you miss the good old days when it was just me, Jake, and Devildog going at it? LOL. Happy Holidays guys. Hope everyone here kills it in 2009, even you Jake.
Are battle rhymes even allowed over here?
I’m just saying.
Here’s a prediction, oil will pop up 7-9% today.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28413739
garbage website, thank goodness for the X in the top right corner.
Forget the Slap Chop – sell the Graty with the Sham – a million of ’em easy – Vince is missin a big opportunity!
Synergy. It’s all about synergy.
After slapping and chopping, you use my rags to clean up afterward. Am I a business genius or what?
Sham-WOW!!
All predictions are subject to revision, and the revisions are also subject to revision.
.
I kinda like that Slap Chop thingy
Ray Romano is the new chief credit officer of Freddie Mac. Odd.
Everybody loves Raymond.
Crap.
My MAC call kicking ass today.
“The euro will continue to collapse, calling into question its viability.”…Wishful thinking.
American Real Estate weeners are ruining a viable Real Estate global economy. Time for the “model” credit system to “burn baby burn”. I won’t miss anything with that incredulous anglo namesake “Mac” titelage.
Great Trading .
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