The Man, Peter Schiff… “Let the Big 3 autos FAIL!” ( The investment broker star of YouTube!)by Gio on December 3rd, 2008 at 4:11 am |
I’m a fan of Schiff. He’s great at debating, and like me, often takes the contrarian role while using fundamental economic principles to back his arguments against investors suffering from myopia. Would I let him handle my money? Forget that!! He’s unarguably clairvoyant like Fly himself, but the difference I think is Fly is a much better money manager. With Schiff’s calls, his portfolio should be up, but frankly, it sucks. With that said, I give you Uncle Peter Schiff!…
Schiff: Our economy heading for a recession. ’Too much consumption, borrowing. Not enough saving. We are heading for a recession. All that phoney wealth will evaporate.’
Laffer: ’I'll bet you a penny you’re wrong. We are the best and going to get better”
Peter Schiff versus the Real Estate and Financial Bulltards - Debate on Skyrocketing Real Estate Bubble in 2006, and debate on the Seriousness of the Credit Crisis
Schiff: ”In 2007… These sky-high real estate prices will come crashing down to earth. Government will reimpose lending standards and tighten credit.”
Some old dude: ”I have no idea what Peter is talking about. What are you talking about.”
Some dude with long hair and another dude with slick hair: ”Ha ha ha ha” … disrespectful laughing.
Schiff versus Ben Stein, and some other Financial Bull Morons (Aug 2007)
Ben: The Credit Crisis is way overblown. All financial stocks are cheap. The subprime problem is a tiny problem. It’s a buying opportunity!’
Schiff: The party is over for the United States. The subprime is not tiny, it is the entire mortgage market. Give it time.
Charles: I think the worse is done.
Some lady: Worst is over.
Some old dude: Worst is over.
Peter: THE WORST IS NOT OVER!! … stay away from the financials! They are toxic!!!!
Lady: Stop being so pessimistic.
… wow, Peter owned them all. I mean really crushed them. Okay, now we have Peter’s view on another highly debatable topic: Should the government bailout the Big 3 Auto companies? Peter says it is unconstitutional, and that laissez faire would cause the Big 3 to fail, but will produce more efficient jobs. Watch this video for some good economic lessons. (Here is his 12/2/08 interview, basically him frowning on the government’s decision to help the auto industry) Whether you agree or not with Schiff, he owns this debate. Okay, now what do you think? Let the Big 3 fail, or not? Huge ramifications both ways. Here’s a November interview…
For my active traders out there… I have no strong bias for tomorrow’s tape (Wednesday), and I plan not to make any trades. I’ll just look. I think the Vix will consolidate into a tighter range giving no edge to bulls or bears. Just kick back, relax and watch from the side. Thursday’s close will be a much better time to trade.
An aLoHa to my new twitterlythat’swhatshesaid new friends. Who do we got here? Oh, the penny-stock master, Timothy Sykes; Ivanhoff, he’s a LOL kind of trader, follow him; wazzup Micaheldkerr! … for the rest of you, get an avatar so I can remember you!
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Vix retrace = relief rally… sorry bears.by Gio on December 2nd, 2008 at 7:56 pm |
I nailed the Vix again, pointing out the fact that yesterday’s -200 at the close would be all given back as the Vix would retrace:
“So anyway, that leads to my next theory that this Vix, whether it moves up or down tomorrow at the open, it should eventually fade back to < 64.50 — 63.00 which is a more proper reading than 68.50, which was so grossly engendered by a news item.” - Read Vix analysis 12/1 here.
Let’s see how the Vix played out…
[Comment on this picture on My ScreenCast Server]
… just as planned. The Vix actually did hit the 63.xx level. That’s more like it! Without even reading a single news article I can already tell you that some kind of announcement related to the economy was made at 14:10- just look at the Vix move right back up. I used the peak of the Vix to enter the 3rd short in SKF for the day.
Today’s Day-Trading Environment
Based on my expectations for the Vix, I traded the tape today with a bullish bias. It seemed like everyone on StockTwits was looking for a fade. They certainly got it, but also lost it.
It was very choppy out there, but thankfully the chops were huge! I mean the market went from +100 to the red to +200 to the red back to +270. I traded SKF throughout the day, since every 10 points in the market = 1 point in SKF. There were some huge swings in SKF and I caught many of them. Keep in mind, yesterday we had panic selling, therefore a light volume day after would be bad for the bears. Here’s my trades today. Made them all at StockTwits/Twitter:
(to comment on this trade/picture go to my ScreenCast site here. )
I believe the Bears will have their day soon. I’m actually leaning towards Thursday’s close ahead of more economic news to search for a selloff. Other then that, it’s tough to say given today’s whipsaw tape. I am now down to one short and no longs… no swingers allowed! Play accordingly.
See you all on Twitter! Just for fun, UpsideTrader took the top spot for Top Talker today on StockTwits, but I only traded 1/2 day. He’s a good trader nevertheless…
The -670 point selloff: Buying opportunity? Or Return of the bears?! … shoot, throwing out the charts and buying this panic!by Gio on December 2nd, 2008 at 4:47 am |
First, before I get explaining my unpopular sentiment on tomorrow’s tape, I just want to offer a few accolades to the iBC posse for reppin’ it over on Twitter/StockTwits. We practically had a full house on the market casino. On a -670 point day:
- Woodshedder’s Big Bamboo heavy short via the inverse ETFs
- Ragin’s 3x Inverse ETF for 3x the fun
- Danny’s easy money shorting the close
- Cha’ddict shorting the banks and financials
- And me, I stuck to fading the solars (been calling the reversals, up and down, in this sector with art)
Okay, for Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s tape:
Yes I have gone mad, and once again am taking the harder road. But come on now…
Yesterday’s sell-off was a bunch of nonsense, especially that -200 drop at the close. Purely on news, on speeches, words, and thoughts of worst-case-scenarios. Whenever the Fed takes the mic, everyone decides to sell. Sure, I was expecting a -400 point day, but that close was a bit panicky.
Here’s some $Vix analysis for yah:
- studying this activity in the Vix in the past 2 weeks sheds light as to why I covered nearly all of my shorts into yesterday’s panic-attack.
- There was actually some bullish moves going on in the Vix. Notice the two wedge patterns that led to two spikes down? That’s actually medium term bullish, short term bearish (hence the “double spike” theory or the target at Vix 55 to start shorting aggressively on a healthy pullback). However, yesterday’s pullback started off with a much needed flush of about -400 points the entire day, until the Fed took the podium and it was all nonsensical. Without the Fed, the market probably would have gained back 100 points on the Dow.
- So anyway, that leads to my next theory that this Vix, whether it moves up or down tomorrow at the open, it should eventually fade back to < 64.50 — 63.00 which is a more proper reading than 68.50, which was so grossly engendered by a news item.
- Right now we have to be like Davinci when trading, using the Vix as our paintbrush. Any profits in shorts or longs should be taken immediately! The last thing you need is to get stuck in another boring Vix wedge. I say this because the Vix @ 80 is very tough to crack. If we do so, then that would be yet another new low.
- So far there is only one “Vix spike”, which is a total move of 25% from yesterday, if you count the outlier close. You can wait for a second Vix spike (try 15%-22%) to enter longs. In fact, its probably better to average in your longs by entering at this first Vix spike, and another add at the next one.
… so there you have it. I want to get long tomorrow!! Monday’s sell-off was “too easy.” I think we overshot that one, and therefore we have a good chance of gaining a lot back tomorrow or Wednesday. A great entry would be Vix > 70, and if we gap down tomorrow then that’s where I will start. As always, I am heading into tomorrow’s tape with the expectation that this setup will not show up. Therefore, there’s no need to chase anything not there. Got it?
Aloha to my new twitteracious new buddies. Let’s see who we got… Howzit UpsideTrader! If you don’t know, he’s a great contributor to stock blogging community. It seems like a lot of you twitter people here are new. I strongly suggest you get an avatar so you can build an identify. Then, when you’re done, annoy people with that avatar by tweeting your every move. Lol!
You are now following drnova911 
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Vix @ 55 predicts major selloff, + Look who is repping it at StockTwits!…by Gio on December 1st, 2008 at 4:32 pm |
Yours truly. 
I used to hang out over at WallStreak, now I post my intraday moves on Twitter through StockTwits. Whenever I see a good setup for trading, I usually take the top spot on the “top talkers” list… I think out loud a lot! Hope yall caught some good shorts today! We started off shorting at the open, and never looked back. Top picks were to short $SPWRA and long $SKF. I really warned you about these Sisyphean Type rallies last week… they ALWAYS end in the boulder coming smashing down! And once again, I used the Vix to pinpoint an almost exact area for shorting aggressively…
“The Vix is near the mid-50s, which I targeted as a point to short the market as traders become blinded by complacency.” -http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/?p=2397
Always pay attention to a rally if it is legit or not! Stocks moving up + Volume moving down + Vix moving down = horrible rally.
More importantly, it was critical that you cover as many short positions as you could into this sell-off. The Vix spiked an incredible 23% today, so do not overlook that. This is only the first “spike”, so you can take a chance, but when the market drops -670 points, please don’t be greedy, take a profit while you can, it is like once in every 20 years you get a day like this.
Today’s tape deserves this video again..
Check out the rest of iBankCoin’s posse over at StockTwits:
Sisyphus Boulder Rolls Over a Turkeyby Gio on December 1st, 2008 at 11:01 am |
Nothing much to report about this tape. This is a classic reaction to a low-volume rally. The “Turkey Rally” from last week lasted all the way until Friday! A really impressive move.
… but really? were you really expecting a Turkey to roll up a boulder that far?!
Now, we are simply unwinding that low volume staircase. I am taking this opportunity to cover many shorts I entered last week, including FSLR, SPWRA and MELI, and debating what I should do about FXP… yeah, I’ll sell that knife. (note, I just covered all FSLR which accounted for nearly 1/2 of my profits on this sell-off. Therefore, I am holding majority of the SPWRA short for a possible next leg down in the market. There are many ways you can scale in and out of trades. For the moment, I prefer to scale out of sectors instead of stocks.).
If you are bullish, you want this kind of selloff. You NEVER EVER want a rally to start off with very low volume. You need to flush out those foolish bulls (”Sisyphean Bulls”) and get aggressive long after a follow-through day (= volume) instead. But since the Turkey Rally was quite drawn out, I really cannot be that bullish for the rest of December. Anyway, I’ll keep an eye on the Vix to get a better read on things in the coming weeks.
Dow is currently down -360. Vix at +13.6% and will move up.
Update: The Dow is now down -450 points … I would avoid entering any day-trade shorts here, as the market is waiting for the close for more volume.
I’m getting a lot of requests for Meredith’s Report on the Banks/Financials, in particular Citigroup. If anyone is interested, I have it in .pdf form (I got it from my twitBuddy Raznick). It is a must read for investors in the sector, and covers the effects of TARP Capital in the light of C’s bailout. There’s also an analysis of BAC, C, JPM, WFC, GS, and MS credit card securitizations.
This report is 37 pages, and i’m still on page 12 or something, but i hope to get an opinion up and a strategy up by the end of the year.
If you want a copy, email me. ..
Note to self… fade the crazeby Gio on November 30th, 2008 at 4:24 pm |
- Sell on the online retail-news. A nice high volume bounce on OSTK sends the stock rightabove the 20. Retrace back to the 10.
- SPWRA crossed the 10, but moved above the 20 on low declining volume. Stock nearly doubled in less than a week.
- IRBT, another eerily similar 1-week pattern to SPWRA, but this one crosses both the 10 and 20 on declinig volume. Up about +25% in past week. Fade back to the 10.
- GG, will have a tough time getting past 30. Gold stocks are crowded. Trading above the 25 resistance point, but on declining volume. Should get backbelow 25 in the next few days.
- CPF, is one ugly bear controlled bank stock. After 5 bars of buying volume, it follows with heavy selling. Short here with a stop slightly above the 20-day (13.20)
- TGT, sell on the retail news. TGT only slightly below the 20-day after thin trading. Now at the top of its 3-month down channel.
Finally, I like energy stocks heading into the winter. If we get a dip on Monday (OPEC didn’t cut anything Nov 29), I’ll be looking for my first entry into some energy/oil plays, while shorting gold as a hedge.
An aLoHa to my new twitterfunknasty friends. Let’s see, who do we got here? AbnormalReturns, a veteran in the stock blog community. Mac, ChartSwingTrade! Another great IBD believer and contributor to this blog. A few strange ones, like Masturbation. Don’t know who Pinays is, but tempted to follow. Lol. And BobBrill, an “IP Lawyer”, don’t know what that is but he seems like a smart guy. Wazzup Bob!
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Black Fridayby Gio on November 28th, 2008 at 6:12 am |
… shopping that is. Today we’ll see some very low volume action, so just extend your vacation. Too many people trade, just to trade. You need to quit that. Wait for high probability setups. Only trade low volume days if you want to take advantage of exiting or adding to swing positions on a move against your play.
The price actions in the double inverse ETFs are very startling. Especially FXP, which is near a 52-low, despite having both the U.S. and the Hanseng trading on a very bearish multi-year chart pattern.
… what are investors thinking about our global markets, especially that of China? Are they betting on China reaching record growth again? Or is the FXP ETF just badly priced?
A -100 point day would be bullish, a +200 pont day would be bearishby Gio on November 26th, 2008 at 12:47 pm |
Just One of Those Days
Right now, the tape is very quiet. A lot of stocks are illiquid, and there really isn’t much out there to day trade, except a few sectors like tech and solars (which is grouped with semis). That’s pretty much the only setup I’m looking for today… profit-taking in solars ahead of the long weekend. I can only wait for that trade to come to me.
On the medium term, we are bullish. There still is a lot of firepower on the “sides” that can push this Sisyphean boulder higher in December, but first we need some cleaning up to do on the sectors…
- In the past 3 days, we have been moving up and up while volume keeps getting lower and lower. We really need to flush out these “weak” or “me-too” bulls.
- The Vix is near the mid-50s, which I targeted as a point to short the market as traders become blinded by complacency.
- The seasonality of the “turkey effect” is probably what is feeding this melt-up (a melt-up is a slow move up on low volume. It is the term that follows the same principle as “never short a dull market”… tough days to be a bear, no?). However, if this continues, we could set-up for a big selloff when volume returns.
-… that is why, at this point, I am watching today’s market, and this is something that even Mac agrees with. You do not want to see the market move triple digits up to invite profit taking ahead of a high volume return, rather you want a market down to invite foolish short-sellers to enter the market that will be forced to cover when volume returns. These are the kinds of patterns you want to see in a bullish tape. Plus, there are a lot of ugly stocks that are way up on low volume, and those too need to be flushed out.
Other then that, there’s really not much to say about today’s market. Just keep your positions small heading into the weekend. The Vix is too “low” for me to enter new longs, and the force of the bears is on vacation.
Turkey eating a bear? Only on Wall St.
See yall on Twitter!
Aloha and a Hi-5 to my new twitteridiculously awesome friends. I actually know some of you already, I think. Like Heckler, wazzup! Eric Purddy… you a pilot? WallStreet1929, great tag! Yieldofdreams, lol!:
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You are now following SammySpade