Two sectors I’ve been scanning lately are Basic Materials and Energy. After the Energy sector’s beating yesterday, the market carpet on the U.S. Markets shows Energy making a tiny comeback, making up approximately a fifth of what it was down from Friday to Monday. Basic Materials, on the other hand, had a somewhat stagnant week-opener with the exception of a couple of stocks. Check the carpet:
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U.S. Markets Carpet (3-2-09 to 3-3-09)
A mixed day as the indices did nothing and the market moved sporadically and with great speed at some times. If you were day trading today, you probably closed out your portfolio with some big time profits, walking away from your desk a happy human being. I, sadly, was not home to bask in the glory of some obvious FAS and FAZ trades, and this was quite upsetting to me. If you want to look at a good outline of the FAS/FAZ trades of the day, check out Gio’s blog.
Before I begin the Basic Materials and Energy charts, let’s review that 20 yr. $SPX chart:
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$SPX 20 Year Monthly
This, my friends, is why we HAVE to begin to recover (or at least stall out and trade within a range again) at the end of March. In order for the $SPX to not completely collapse right in front of our eyes, I am hoping for a positive April. If you’re following this long-term $SPX chart, however, March may already be a lost cause.
On to the Basic Materials and Energy charts (the explanations will have to wait until tomorrow, for it is way too late and I am way too tired). Enjoy!
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GLD 1 Year Daily
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AEM January to March (Present Day)
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FCX 10 Day, 15 Minute
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USO 30 Day, 60 Minute
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PCX 10 Day, 15 Minute
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Apologies yet again for the lack of description, but I promise I’ll get the descriptions on the charts above tomorrow. As of now, my watch list goes as follows:
- GLD
- GS
- AAPL
- RIMM
- NUE
- FSLR
- FAS/FAZ
- SRS
- USO
- FCX
- AEM
- ESV
- XTO
- PCX
- SLB
- BTU
- STR
- NOV
- HEP
- MRO
Long list, I know. These stocks are on the watch list in order to be used as an indicator (GS), a trading pair (FAS/FAZ), to show further weakness and lean towards major support levels (many on the list), or are already developing a positive pattern based off of its support push (again, many on the list). These names could get burned or they could go much higher, so keep a close eye on the sectors from the watch list first (mainly Energy and Basic Materials) and then name chase from the ticker list. The tickers with the charts above are my main focus, and tomorrow I’m going to post a very extensive article on GLD and the trends in gold.
Good Fight, Good Night…
ZM
good stuff.
congratz on being the King dude. now i don’t have to jack your chart.
whoah, PCX FCX… feels like i haven’t traded those in years when its only been about 5 months.
-gio-
I’m looking forward to your article on gold, Z.
I’m going to post what I’ve been up to lately in my retirement account, trading account, etc. Not because I want a bashing, but because I have an idea (not my own but I like it).
In the retirement, I’ve been loading up on gold, oil and copper and am just letting them ride because I think those industries will do well this year and next. I also have my SBUX and NTRI, but am thinking about dropping them.
In my small trading account I have loaded up on JASO the last couple of weeks and followed fly into WNR (but am holding that for a little longer). This account I have time frame of a few weeks or maybe month.
But what I was thinking about doing is taking about $5,000. and buying up about 10 or so of the large, strong companies, maybe $500. each and holding for a year and see where it goes. My daughter is 14 YO and I thought that might just grow for her college account.
What do you guys think of that idea?
I also have to tell you that in my retirement I have the largest portion (2/3’s) in PIM Total Return Bond Fund because that was what I did not pull out of my 401k, and I can’t roll it over until my severance pkge from work has ended (end of May). I also have a pension fund from work that I have to roll into an IRA at that time as well.
Actually, make it about five of the strongest dividend paying companies, companies that have increased their dividends instead of lowering, for the college account.
And I’m loading up on DXO, I decided, in the retirement account. Oil has to go up in the long run, OPEC will not let it remain down here.
Hanging on to NTRI for the dividend. Getting rid of SBUX though, as much as I like that company. And the CEO came out of retirement recently, closing bad stores in the USA and opening stores in Europe. Europe loves coffee, even more than we do. The non-alcoholic crowd loves Starbucks. Heck every time I drive by one of their stores here in Savannah there are still lines.
Hey chanci! Do you have a twitter account? I feel that loading up on Copper right now is probably a wise decision. Gold may not be the answer for now, and I’ll be outlining that in a little bit. What large corporations do you currently have your eye on?
In regard to the smaller account, the watchlist I have put together up top is pretty solid if you base your decisions off of unemotional technical analysis trading. Another thing to keep in mind is your willingness to get bruised for a day or two, and if you can adjust your time span to a couple of days to hang on to these names instead of weeks.
I think DXO may be a tad over the moon right now price wise, and from today’s action within the energy sector, it may pull back a little tomorrow. I happened to purchase USO today, and I’m probably going to get bruised a little bit tomorrow because of buying it at the price I did.
All in all, copper is your best bet! If I would have bought FCX when I called it to be the best performing stock of the year (Ragin’s stock contest), I would have caught it at $22 =P
Good luck!
ZM
Good call on the FCX, I didn’t realize you called it for stock of ’09. I have my eye on PCU as well. I bought TGB because of the PPT’s rating.
I am legging into all stocks at 1/4 positions size as GIO rec’d. And my time horizon on these is long. I am not a trader, no matter how I try so far I just can’t think that way. But still lots of money to be made buying, holding and taking profits as they happen. Still a fun way to invest.
As far as companies that have increased their dividends this year, I am just now making a list. I rec’d a list in another newsletter I get and I am checking those out to possibly purchase for my daughters’ account.
INTC, MSFT, CAT, T, PFE & GE.
I actually purchased some GE yesterday and will probably start getting into MSFT right now.
Thanks Chanci. I currently own PFE for my brother’s portfolio, and I am heavily considering using the money he has left to purchase some GE. I’m glad to hear you’re moving into positions in 1/4 sizes: It’s the smartest and least risky way to invest/trade for the reward it will eventually be worth!
ZM
Want to see where Gold is going?
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html
Largest of them are taking out short positions. (little by little)